NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Fade Tatum and Back Jokic in this Playoff SGP

Worried about a bad case of the Mondays? Don’t sweat, I have five NBA player prop picks for the playoffs to look forward to.

The big news on Sunday was Buddy Hield’s 33-point playoff career-high powering the Golden State Warriors to a Game 7 win over the Houston Rockets. The Indiana Pacers also went on the road and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers as nine-point underdogs as Darius Garland’s injury continues to haunt the top seed in the East.

Monday’s matchups include the Boston Celtics taking on the New York Knicks and the Denver Nuggets visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder, both in the first game of the respective series.

Read our in-depth predictions for Knicks vs. Celtics and Nuggets vs. Thunder.

Here are my top five NBA player prop bets for Monday’s action.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, May 5

Christian Braun Over 12.5 Points

The Thunder love to play with pace and run in transition whenever they can. They also aren’t a great rebounding team, which means that they could be left vulnerable to great players in transition, or the exact description of Braun as a player.

Braun scored 14, 19, 24, and 16 points in four matchups with the Thunder during the regular season. He also put up 21 points in the Nuggets’ Game 7 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers and went over in three of his last four games, which gives me enough confidence to back him in Game 1 of the conference semis.

Russell Westbrook Over 4.5 Rebounds

Westbrook finished the Clippers series as a very productive player and was terrific in Game 7, going for 16 points, five rebounds, five assists, and five steals. He only went over in three of seven games in the first round, but he also went over in back-to-back games and played 29 minutes per gamer over the decisive final three matchups.

The Thunder are more than willing to go small and run, which makes Westbrook the natural counter. He also went over this line in all four regular-season meetings with the Thunder going for 5, 11, 6, and 5 boards. He’ll also have the extra motivation of being back in the place where his career began.

Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 Points

Let’s be serious for just a minute. The Celtics have plenty of scoring threats on offense, no doubt about it—but Holiday is an NBA champion, a veteran, and a capable scorer, and this line is VERY low for him seeing as he averaged 11.1 points and went over in both appearances in the first round.

The 34-year-old hasn't been terribly efficient shooting the ball recently, but the Knicks are going to have their worst defender, Jalen Brunson, guarding him and won’t be able to show help because of the talent of the rest of the Celtics’ lineup. Holiday also went over in all three matchups between the teams.

Jayson Tatum Under 9.5 Rebounds

Tatum split the over/under at two apiece in the first round against the Orlando Magic but went under in three of four regular-season matchups between the teams. The Knicks did not do well on the boards in the first round, but they were facing an excellent rebounding team in the Detroit Pistons.

Mitchell Robinson should see extra minutes in this series because of his presence against Boston’s double-big lineup. Tatum hasn’t needed to put a ton of focus on the glass for his team to win games, and I don’t think that will change in this series against a Knicks team the C’s have dominated.

Josh Hart Over 10.5 Points

Hart closed the Knicks’ first-round series against the Pistons by going over this line in three straight games and averaged 11.8 points on 50/50/78 shooting splits for the entire first round. He also went over in three of four matchups against Boston during the regular season.

The hard-nosed Hart loves to take his defender off the dribble and finish through contact, and the Celtics’ confidence in their perimeter defenders means they shouldn’t show much help on these drives. That gives him a stylistic advantage in the prop market and is why I believe he will go over.

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-Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)

• Nikola Jokic 12+ rebounds: Went over this line in all four regular-season matchups with OKC, while the Thunder haven’t been great on the boards in the playoffs.

• Jamal Murray 20+ points: Went over in five of seven first-round games and poured in 34 points the last time he faced the Thunder.

• Chet Holmgren under 16.5 points: Jokic and the Nuggets are playing better defense than they did during the regular season, while Holmgren went under in three of four meetings between the teams.

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