NBA Player Props and Best Bets: SGA, Curry, Doncic Picks for NBA Opening Night

The NBA is back from its three-month hiatus, and both teams and players across the league are ready to embark on their journey through the 2025-26 season.

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets will kick off the new season by facing the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the Finals in seven games to secure their franchise’s first championship.

The night concludes with Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers squaring off with Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. LeBron James will not make it onto the court as he deals with sciatica that could sideline him until November. 

Looking for the best NBA betting picks and player props for opening night on Tuesday? Here’s my first crack at finding the best NBA bets for the new season.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, October 21

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Kevin Durant Under 23.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Durant’s greatest attribute is probably his ability to seamlessly fit into any style of offense from any generation with any cast of teammates. He should be effective, even in his first game with a new team, although that does not mean that he’ll get a ton of volume.

The Rockets were a slow-paced, defense-first unit one season ago. Without VanVleet on the floor, they’ll be down their top initiator and distributor to boot. I expect Durant to only get up in the region of 12-14 shots and to go under.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points (-130) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The reigning NBA MVP and Finals MVP scored 32, 32, 51, and 22 points in four games against the Rockets last year. Houston will be down Fred VanVleet, who suffered a torn ACL during an offseason workout, but they still have arguably the best on-ball defender in the NBA in Amen Thompson to throw at SGA.

The Thunder were a well-oiled machine last year, but with it being their first game back on the court after a championship, it’s far from a guarantee that they will come out looking the same. Mark Daigenault should also be cognizant of the physical toll his players’ bodies took last year and could start them off playing fewer minutes than usual to warm them into the season.

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Jimmy Butler Under 17.5 Points (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Butler was great for the Warriors last year, averaging 17.9 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds during 30 regular-season games. However, he’s 36 years old, and he’s been known to show a relative lack of interest in scoring during regular-season contests over the last couple of years.

The Lakers quietly had a stout defense last year even after they traded Anthony Davis to the Dallas Mavericks. They lost key defensive pieces such as James and Dorian Finney-Smith, but they still have Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Marcus Smart, all of whom will get turns on Butler.

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Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Threes (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Like Durant, Curry possesses a quality that is often overlooked when discussing his greatness. His cardio is outstanding, and he never seems to run out of wind or desire when moving around screens off the ball, which is something that will be tough to account for in the first game of the new season.

Steph averaged 4.4 made threes per game last year despite only playing 32.2 minutes per night. The Lakers really struggled to defend the perimeter and will find it even more difficult with Doncic and Austin Reaves being their two primary defenders outside of the paint.

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Luka Doncic Over 30.5 Points (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Doncic is reportedly in the best shape of his life thanks to a commitment to a new diet and training regimen over the offseason. He also played summer basketball with his native Slovenia, so he has reps not only in the weight room, but on the court as well.

Without James, Doncic should have a semi-monopoly on the ball early in the year. Reaves is a capable scorer, but the Lakers’ offense should flow through Doncic as they transition the franchise into his hands. The Warriors are also old and don’t have great defensive matchups for the 26-year-old.

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