NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & More Picks

The final day of the first week of the new NBA season has only just arrived, but there’s been plenty to talk about on the hardwood.

Austin Reaves dropped a career-high 51 points to go with 11 rebounds and nine assists during the Los Angeles Lakers’ win over the Sacramento Kings, while Jaylen Brown’s 41 points weren’t enough to get the Boston Celtics their first win of the season.

With another loaded slate of action scheduled for Monday, I’m here to share my best player prop picks from around the league.

Here are my top NBA picks and bets for Oct. 27.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, October 27

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Herbert Jones Under 10.5 Points (+100) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jones is a defensive specialist who has put in a ton of work to improve his three-point shot, but who still isn’t a high-volume or an off-the-dribble type of shooter. He also put up 17 points in the New Orleans Pelicans’ season opener, only to bounce back with zero points in an overtime loss last Friday.

The Pelicans will be well-rested, but I’m still not confident that means Jones will get the over. He and his teammates are about to face a Boston Celtics squad that is right about league-average in three-point defense and figure to improve as the year progresses and Joe Mazzulla’s identity takes shape.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 3+ Threes (+215) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Gilgeous-Alexander has never made more than 2.1 threes per game in a season (last year), and he hasn’t hit this line once in three games thus far. He’s not a good long-range shooter, especially for how clinical he is in the mid-range, but this type of matchup favors him having a rare strong night from range.

The Dallas Mavericks play an enormous lineup, and while that won’t make the reigning MVP afraid of going into the paint, it means he should get more cushion from his on-ball defender. That, combined with the Mavs’ true perimeter players being poor defenders, means that he should enjoy an increase in operating space from outside.

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Rui Hachimura Over 4.5 Rebounds (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Hachimura also hasn’t gone over this line one time in three games so far, although it’s worth noting that he averaged 5.0 rebounds per game last year. The Portland Trail Blazers are also 19th in rebound percentage and are still reeling from coach Chauncey Billups’ arrest for illegal gambling.

Hachimura will have coach JJ Redick in his ear telling him he needs to have more of a presence on the glass, particularly with LeBron James and Luka Doncic out with injuries. Austin Reaves was a one-man army on Sunday, but I expect him to get more support tonight.

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Quentin Grimes Under 14.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Grimes took the NBA by storm last year and put up 24 points in the Sixers’ last outing, a win over the Charlotte Hornets. He split the over/under at one apiece so far, but despite shooting 53.8 percent from three-point land, I have a feeling he’s going under on Monday.

Philly is about to take on the Orlando Magic, who had a terrific defense over the last couple of seasons. They aren’t quite playing at a prolific rate just yet, but they are sixth in defensive rating and ninth in three-point percentage allowed, which could lead to Grimes having a slower outing.

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Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 Assists (-154) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Thompson has posted an impressive stat line through three games, averaging 17 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. He also beat this assists line in every outing and is about to face a Cleveland Cavaliers squad that is right in the middle of the league in assists allowed per game.

It can be lazy to just assume that a player will cash the over if they have in every game thus far. In Thompson’s case, he plays heavy minutes, and his ability to play downhill means he can force scrambles and rotations, opening up quick passes to cutting teammates. This matchup just makes sense.

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