NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Jalen Brunson, Stephon Castle & More Picks for Saturday, Feb. 21

The weekend has arrived, and I’ve got another batch of my best NBA player prop picks ready to go.

Anthony Edwards schooled the Dallas Mavericks with 40 points and six rebounds in a comfortable win over the Dallas Mavericks, before Nikola Jokic’s 32 points led the Denver Nuggets to scoring a franchise-record 157 road points in a 54-point win over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Saturday schedule is headlined by the Houston Rockets visiting the New York Knicks in a matchup between top-four teams in each conference.

Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Saturday, Feb. 21.

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Best NBA Prop Bets for Saturday, February 21

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Stephon Castle over 6.5 assists (+102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Castle averaged 6.9 assists per game, but he went under this line in back-to-back games. Crucially, he only played 21 minutes in both of those games due to foul trouble, but he also went over in back-to-back games before that. 

While Castle only played 22.5 minutes per night in February, he averaged 30.0 per game for the year. The Sacramento Kings have had one of the worst defenses in the NBA all year, and they ranked 22nd in assists allowed per game over the last few weeks.

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Jalen Brunson over 5.5 assists (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Rockets have a strong defense, but they aren’t quite playing at the level that they were earlier in the season. Brunson is also coming off of handing out right helpers on Thursday and went over in three of his last four games, dating back to before the All-Star break.

The Rockets have Amen Thompson and other long defenders they can throw at Brunson, which could lead to him turning down usual shooting opportunities. That didn’t pan out in Thursday’s contest with the Detroit Pistons, and he still found a way to go over the line, padding his season standard of 6.1 assists per game.

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Matas Buzelis over 2.5 threes (+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Pistons ranked eighth in made threes allowed per game and were up to first over their last 15 contests. Buzelis also only made 2.0 threes per game on 36.3 percent shooting, which makes this seem like a slam-dunk to the under.

With all of that being said, Buzelis did go 4-7 from beyond the arc when these teams last faced off on Jan. 7, and he went over in three of his last four games. The Pistons are going to play him straight-up just like they do everyone who isn’t an MVP-level player, and I could see him calling his own number and making a few threes tonight.

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Paolo Banchero under 22.5 points (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Banchero is one of the least efficient jump-shooters in the entire NBA, despite his averaging 21.5 points per game for the Orlando Magic. He went under this line in six of his last eight games, and the two overs were against two of the teams with the worst defenses in the NBA, the Kings and the Utah Jazz.

The Phoenix Suns ranked sixth in points allowed per game for the year and allowed even fewer than their season standard over the last few weeks of play. Until Banchero demonstrates more consistency against high-quality opponents, I will have a hard time backing him to cash his overs.

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Herb Jones over 3.5 rebounds (-136) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jones is known primarily for his defense and is not an excellent rebounder. However, he logged four boards in four straight games, went over this line in five of six appearances in February, and averaged 3.6 rebounds per game for the year, putting him just on the right side of this number.

The Philadelphia 76ers typically aren’t dominant rebounding on the wings, ironically, the lone previous matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans notwithstanding. Jones has the length to mix it up with Philly's guys, and he should get plenty of minutes with Trey Murphy III unavailable for the weekend affair.

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