Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Odds: Can Denver Stay Hot Against Rested OKC?

The Denver Nuggets will head out on the road to face the top-seed Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday.

The Nuggets are fresh off a momentum-churning blowout win in Game 7 of their first-round series with the Los Angeles Clippers. Nikola Jokic’s scoring has been down in the playoffs, but Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have elevated their game.

The Thunder haven’t been on the court since they swept the Memphis Grizzlies in an uncompetitive series. They split the regular-season series with the Nuggets at two games apiece and went 1-1 in their building.

Here, I will break down the Nuggets vs. Thunder odds and share my favorite betting picks for the matchup.

For more betting insights, check our selection of NBA Player Props and Best Bets today.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Odds for Thursday, May 5

The Nuggets are 41-46-2 (47.1 percent) against the spread, 21-22-1 (48.8 percent) ATS on the road, and 13-11-1 (54.2 percent) ATS as an underdog.

The Thunder are 55-28-4 (66.3 percent) ATS, 29-12-2 (70.7 percent) ATS at home, and 53-27-4 (66.3 percent) ATS as a favorite.

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code WSNSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets*.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction

Denver Nuggets Preview

The Nuggets might just be back.

A season mired by inconsistent play, terrible defense, and a drop in home form led to the team firing coach Michael Malone just weeks before the postseason. Whether or not that was the right decision, the Nuggets showed their championship mentality in blowing out the Clippers in Game 7 to win their first series against a 50-win opponent in the Jokic era.

The Nuggets, and Jokic especially, played much better defense than they did during the regular season. Their offense took a predictable hit against an elite defense, but they ranked fourth in rebound rate among playoff teams.

The style in which Game 7 was won makes Game 1 of this series a much different prospect than the one the Golden State Warriors are facing, for example. The Dubs had to scrape and claw to get into the second round, while the Nuggets should be filled with confidence after they were up by 27 points entering the fourth quarter of their last outing. 

That’s roughly the best-case scenario for a team entering a series with one week less rest than their opponent.

Two things must occur for the Nuggets to remain competitive and potentially beat the Thunder, who finished with a league-best 68-14 regular-season record.

First, Jokic has to play better across the board. He averaged fewer points, rebounds, and assists, a lower field goal percentage, and more turnovers than he did during the regular season.

Second, the Nuggets players need to be prepared to run in transition on defense and to sustain their defensive effort across multiple possessions. Whereas the Nuggets and Clippers combined to play at the third-slowest pace of the first round with a 92.06 pace rating, the Thunder and Grizzlies combined to play at the fastest pace (102.63).

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Oklahoma City Thunder Preview

It’s finally time to learn what the Thunder are about.

OKC dominated nearly all relevant metrics during the regular season before it embarrassed the Grizzlies, winning Game 1 by a playoff record 51 points and later rallying from a 26-point halftime deficit in Game 3 to win by six points.

Despite the Thunder’s excellent season, they were about .500 against a crop of the best teams in the NBA. That included the Nuggets, who they beat by 15, lost to by two, beat by 24, and then lost to by 13 in their final matchup on March 10.

An interesting angle to approach this game from is the age-old question of rest versus rust. It’s obvious that the Thunder are an elite club, but their week of rest after facing one of the weakest opponents in the playoffs in the first round means they are close to a month past their last competitive outing, a 136-120 win against the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 79.

That’s significant since OKC is the youngest and one of the most inexperienced teams in the league, and it’s also a stark contrast to the Nuggets, who were just in a Game 7.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander opened up the playoffs averaging 27.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds on an uncharacteristic 40.2 percent shooting. Jalen Williams (23.3 points) and Chet Holmgren (18.5 points) both raised their scoring outputs, but nobody else averaged more than 9.5 points.

Two primary areas of focus for the Thunder should come on the boards, given their lack of girth and that they are only 10th in rebound rate in the playoffs, and perimeter aggressiveness. They led the league in points off turnovers per game, and Denver is 12th in turnover percentage in the playoffs.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Pick

• Nuggets vs. Thunder pick: Nuggets +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Both of the Thunder’s wins against the Nuggets were by at least 20 points, which gives credence to the notion that they can cover this line if they win. They’re also younger and fresher and will test Denver’s commitment to moving in transition, especially coming off of a seven-game series.

On the flip side, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 11.5 assists on 52.6 percent shooting across their four matchups. Denver has a propensity to win games they don’t look like they will, as seen in the early parts of the last round.

I ultimately believe that the Thunder are rightfully favored, but I believe that the Nuggets will stay competitive and keep this within single digits, allowing them to cover the spread.

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How to Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder on 5/5/25

• When: Monday, May 5 @ 8:30/9:30 p.m. CT/ET

• Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• TV: TNT/truTV/Max