NC State vs. Memphis Prediction, Odds & Picks: Expect a Competitive Gasparilla Bowl

• The Gasparilla Bowl takes place in Tampa at Raymond James Stadium 

• NC State is a 4.5-point favorite over Memphis 

• CJ Bailey will start for NC State, despite future uncertainty 

The Friday bowl slate is loaded, and the second game on the card is the Gasparilla Bowl from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. The NC State Wolfpack of the ACC enters the game as a slight favorite against Memphis of the American Conference. 

Since this is an early bowl game, it’s less likely to see a lot of opt-outs, so this should be a competitive game. Here, we will break down the matchup and give our pick for the contest on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

NC State vs. Memphis Odds

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NC State vs. Memphis - My Pick

• My Pick: Memphis +4.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

NC State had a very rough stretch in the second half of the season, and while they won the last two games of the year, they didn’t look confident. NC State is the more talented team, but Memphis is among the most persistent in the country, and they were in the College Football Playoff conversation at times before their November decline. 

Memphis has the talent to swing above its weight class, and its relentless effort should make the difference in this contest. CJ Bailey will take the Wolfpack on a game-winning drive, but it won’t be enough to cover the number in the Gasparilla Bowl.

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NC State vs. Memphis Prediction

NC State Preview

NC State’s future as a mid-level Power Four program is always in question heading into the offseason. Many of the bigger programs try to pluck talent from schools like NC State. 

The good part about this game from a betting perspective is that it’s very early in the season. Therefore, many of NC State's players will be on the field, including quarterback CJ Bailey. 

Bailey has been tremendous this season, considering he’s just a sophomore. The quarterback threw for 2,884 yards, 23 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. 

His completion percentage against non-conference teams is 70.1%, so he is very accurate. The Wolfpack are averaging over 30 points per game with Bailey under center, so expect them to throw the ball all over the field. 

Bailey has looked to Terrell Anderson primarily in the passing game. The sophomore receiver has caught 38 passes for 637 yards and five touchdowns on the season. 

He is a physical receiver with a 6’2” frame, so defensive backs have all they can handle to beat him in single coverage.

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Memphis Prediction 

The Memphis Tigers have a senior leader at quarterback in Brendon Lewis. Lewis has been efficient this season for the Tigers, and this is a perfect quality when facing the Wolfpack. 

NC State will score, and any turnovers could be costly for Memphis. Lewis has thrown six interceptions compared to 15 touchdowns this season. 

Memphis relies on its ground game, led by Lewis and running back Sutton Smith. Smith has 102 rushes for 669 yards and seven touchdowns this season. 

The running back averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in 2025. He is very explosive, so when he gets through the first line of defenders, he is very hard to catch. 

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NC State vs. Memphis Injury Report

NC State

• Brody Barnhardt (S) - Out (undisclosed)

• Sean Brown (LB) - Out (undisclosed)

• Isaiah Crowell (CB) - Out (undisclosed)

• Sterlin Dixon (LB) - Out (undisclosed)

Memphis

• Cade Law (LB) - Out (undisclosed)

• Oliver Castaneda (K) - Out (undisclosed)

• Jerry Cross (TE) - Out (undisclosed)

• Grant Troutman (QB) - Out (undisclosed)

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How to Watch NC State vs. Memphis

• When: Friday, December 19 @ 2:30 PM EST

• Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL)

• How to Watch: ESPN