Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Picks: B10 Rematch for a Spot in the National Championship

• Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 on Oct. 11

• The pair won by a combined score of 61-3 in the CFP semifinal

• Indiana is +130 to win the national championship 

The Oregon Ducks and top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers will meet for the second time this season in the College Football Playoff semifinal on Friday night.

The Ducks lost to Indiana at home as 7.5-point favorites on Oct. 11, a game that many believe announced the Hoosiers’ arrival on the national stage. That was Oregon’s only loss of the season, and they just beat Texas Tech 23-0 in the quarterfinal.

On the other side, Indiana is red-hot after smoking Alabama in the Rose Bowl, 38-3. They are yet to taste defeat this season, have Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza taking the snaps, and look just as, if not more, focused than any team in the country.

Here, I will break down the Oregon vs. Indiana odds and share my favorite picks and bets for the CFP semifinal spectacular.

Oregon vs. Indiana Odds

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Oregon vs. Indiana My Pick

• My pick: Indiana -3.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

I believe that the Ducks will keep the game competitive, but I like Indiana on all of the margins: rushing defense, coaching decisions, quarterback talent, and turnover battle. They’re completely focused and showed Alabama they didn’t belong on the same field as them last week, while Oregon’s offense really struggled against Texas Tech, despite the latter’s offense constantly putting its defense in unfavorable positions.

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Oregon vs. Indiana Prediction

Oregon Ducks Preview

The Oregon Ducks are loaded with talent, but they will make you feel them. They lean heavily on their running game that features three running backs, Noah Whittington, Jordan Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr., all of whom averaged at least 5.9 yards per carry. 

The Ducks’ success on the ground allows them to create explosive downfield passes with Dante Moore, who could be a top-two pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Moore tallied 3,280 yards, 28 TDs, and 9 INTs, but notably, he struggled against top defenses. He was 21/34 for 186 yards, a TD, and two INTs in the last matchup with IU, 13/21 for 112 yards and an interception at Iowa, and 26/33 for 234 yards and an INT in the quarterfinal against Texas Tech.

Over the last three years, Oregon hasn’t lost to a team that wasn’t ranked number one in the country or appeared in the national championship game. Unfortunately for them, Indiana could fit both of those characteristics.

The underdogs are known for their speed, and they have it in spades on defense. They ranked fifth in EPA per play, although they were only 46th in sack percentage and only managed one sack the last time they played Indiana.

The biggest question heading into this matchup is how their offensive line will perform. Despite the lopsided score, they were manhandled by the Texas Tech front, and they surrendered six sacks to the Hoosiers during the regular season.

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Indiana Hoosiers Preview

Curt Cignetti’s squad doesn’t just want to beat you. They want to make you quit. They want you to be miserable.

Cignetti’s cocked eyebrow during IU’s 38-3 demolition job against Alabama last week was a perfect representation of his disinterest in meaningless games, and his complete focus on his ambition: to win a national championship.

Indiana led the nation in net EPA per play and is coming off of two impressive results, taking down Ohio State in the B10 Championship Game and then embarrassing Alabama. Their win against Oregon in October was a product of their ability to control the clock and stop the run more than it was anything else, although there’s still pressure on one player in particular.

QB Fernando Mendoza had one touchdown, one interception, and 215-222 yards in each of his games against his three toughest opponents this year. He might not need to single-handedly drag his team to victory, but he can’t afford to make multiple mistakes against a team this talented.

The Hoosiers live in their opponents’ backfield (14th in sack percentage) and only allowed 3.0 yards per carry, good for ninth in the country. They might not have Oregon’s brand, but they’re just as physical as any team in football.

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Oregon vs. Indiana Injury Report

Oregon

• Bryce Boulton (OL) - Out

• Dillon Gresham (WR) - Out

• Trey McNutt (S) - Questionable (leg)

• Jack Ressler (WR) - Out

• Da’Jaun Riggs (RB) - Questionable

• Evan Stewart (WR) - Out (knee)

• Gernorris Wilson (OL) - Out

• Daylen Austin (DB) - Out (transfer portal)

• Makhi Hughes (RB) - Out (transfer portal)

• Austin Novosad (QB) - Out (transfer portal)

• Kingston Lopa (DB) - Questionable

• Justius Lowe (WR) - Questionable

• Kyler Kasper (WR) - Out

Indiana

• Brendan Franke (K) - Questionable

• Amari Kamar (LB) - Questionable (shoulder)

• Lee Beebe Jr. (RB) - Out (leg)

Oregon vs. Indiana: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

All of the best online sportsbooks are offering a variety of betting markets for the Alabama vs. Indiana College Football Playoff showdown.

While the odds might be similar, each sportsbook will have its differences. Compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best place to submit your bet of choice.

Find some of the best sportsbook promos and bonuses listed in the table below.

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How to Watch Oregon vs. Indiana

• When: Friday, Jan. 9 @ 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

• How to Watch: ESPN