49ers vs. Texans Same Game Parlay Picks: Positive Regression Looms Large Over the Texans Offense

• The Houston Texans have flipped from a +1.5 underdog to a -1.5 favorite

• CJ Stroud threw for 229 yards and 1 touchdown in last week’s contest against Seattle

• The San Francisco 49ers' defense ranks below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate

After being ravaged by injuries, the San Francisco 49ers defense have struggled to play at a competitive level as they continue to fall down the board in most defensive metrics. Their lack of production bodes well for the Houston Texans' offense as they are in desperate need of rounding back into form in order to remain in contention for the AFC South division title.

Best 49ers vs. Texans Same Game Parlay Picks

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CJ Stroud Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After a slow start to the season, CJ Stroud has started to get into a groove as the former NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winner currently ranks in the top half of the board in Quarterback EPA per play and in PFF Grade. An impressive feat as Stroud is still surrounded by one of the worst offensive lines in the league as the Texans reside near the bottom of the board in Pass Block Grade.

Luckily for the Texans' underwhelming offensive line, they will be able to hold their ground at a more consistent rate against San Francisco as they face off against a 49ers defensive line who ranks in the bottom ten in Pass Rush Win Rate. With less pressure in his face, the amount of Havoc in Stroud’s throws will drastically decline which increases his chances of moving the ball down the field.

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Woody Marks Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After splitting duties with Nick Chubb earlier in the year, Woody Marks has started to see an uptick in his usage rate as he comfortably led his teammate in total rush attempts in last week’s contest against Seattle. Marks has also been efficient with his carries as he heads into week eight ranked above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.

In Sunday’s contest against the 49ers, Marks will have a great opportunity to consistently reach the second level of their defense as he faces off against a front seven who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Run Block Win Rate. Their low use of the blitz also gives Marks more room to work with when he gets past the trenches, increasing his chances of generating an explosive play.

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Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only has Marks started to see an increase in his total number of carries in the middle of the field, but he has also played a role in their offense when in scoring position as he currently leads the team in total Red Zone Rush Attempts. With Nico Collins potentially sitting out, the Texans may revert to a heavier dose of the run which increases Marks chances of scoring.

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Mac Jones Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

On the other side of the field, Mac Jones will find himself constantly scrambling away from the Texans' pressure as he faces off against a front seven who ranks top-3 in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With less time in the pocket to operate, the quality of Jones throws will drastically decline which hurts his chances of hitting his receivers in stride.

The Texans also anchor their linebackers across the middle at a heavy rate which helps them keep a defender near the 49ers' pass catchers and limits their ability to generate an explosive play. This will force Jones to rely on the short throw which has a low success rate of turning into a big gain.

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