Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions in Week 4: Derrick Henry to Receive Plenty of Carries in the Red Zone

• Derrick Henry averaged over four yards per carry in Monday night’s loss to Detroit

• Henry has received a 71.4% share of the Baltimore Ravens carries inside the 20

• The Kansas City Chiefs defense ranks below league average in Run Block Win Rate

Even though Derrick Henry was held to just 50 total rushing yards against Detroit in week three, he still was efficient with his attempts as he averaged over four yards per carry. In a potential AFC Conference Championship preview against Kansas City, expect Henry to bounce back in a big way as he faces off against a Chiefs defense who severely underwhelms on defense.

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Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-170) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Derrick Henry has built a strong case for being listed as a top contender for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, as he ranks above league average in Rushing Yards Over Expected per carry. Henry also receives a heavy usage rate when inside the 20 as he comfortably leads all Baltimore running backs in Total Red Zone Carries.

In Sunday’s highly anticipated contest against Kansas City, Henry will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a Chiefs defense who ranks below league average in Def Run Block Win Rate. For some more exposure, escalator bet Henry’s touchdown scoring prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.

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Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the NFL MVP award last year, Buffalo’s Josh Allen has managed to carry over his momentum into this season as the Bills' star quarterback ranks top-5 in Quarterback EPA per play. His dual threat ability has been on full display as he is averaging over two touchdowns per game through the air and on the ground.

In a favorable matchup against New Orleans, Allen will be able to get into scoring position at a consistent rate as he faces off against a Saints defense who ranks in the bottom ten in Def DVOA and in EPA. This will potentially lead to an uptick in rush attempts for Allen near the goal line which drastically increases his chances of scoring.

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Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It was as good a debut as Jordan Mason could ask for in his first start as the Minnesota Vikings' lead back as he gashed the Cincinnati Bengals' defense for a total of 116 yards while averaging over 7 yards per carry. Mason also capitalized on his scoring opportunities as punched it in for six on two separate occasions.

While a matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers seems daunting on paper, it’s worth noting their defense has taken a major step back this season as they head into week four ranked near dead last in Def EPA. An international matchup also normally results in a more conservative gamescript which will lead to an uptick in carries for the Vikings running back.

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AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown (+190) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After a slow start to the season, AJ Brown rounded back into dominant form in week three as he finished the contest hauling in six receptions for 109 yards. Even during his slump, Brown was still able carve out a role inside the redzone as he is currently tied with Devonta Smith for the most targets inside the 20.

Heading into week four, Brown will continue to thrive as the star receiver faces off against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers front seven who ranks below league average in Def Pass Rush PFF Grade. With Jalen Hurts dealing with less pressure in the pocket, Brown will have more time in the open field to help break away from the Bucs coverage.

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