The Baltimore Ravens' defense allowed Nick Chubb to average over five yards per carry
Kyren Williams has received 77.8% of the Los Angeles Rams carries inside the red zone
The Kansas City Chiefs' front seven ranks near dead last in Run Defense Win Rate
With the Baltimore Ravens defense dealing with an abundance of injuries, Kyren Williams has a great opportunity to find the back of the end zone as he will face minimal resistance in his efforts of breaking through the trenches. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Detroit Lions as the Kansas City Chiefs' defense continues to struggle to play at a competitive level.
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After thriving last season, the Baltimore Ravens defense have harshly regressed as they now rank near dead last in Def DVOA and in EPA. Primarily in regard to stopping the run as their front seven also resides near the bottom of the board in Run Defense PFF Grade since Nnamdi Madubuike went down with an injury.
Their struggles in the trenches bodes well for Kyren Williams as the Los Angeles Rams three down back will be able to reach the second level of their defense at a more consistent rate. When in scoring position, expect Williams to continue to hear his number called as he comfortably leads the team in total number of Red Zone Carries with a 77.8% Usage Rate.
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Since CeeDee Lamb went down with an injury, Jake Ferguson has quickly turned into Dak Prescott’s most reliable pass catcher to throw to as the Dallas Cowboys tight end averages over 10 Targets per game. Ferguson has made the most of heavy workload as he heads into week six possessing a Catch Rate of 85%.
With George Pickens commanding defensive attention inside the 20, Ferguson plays a pivotal role when in scoring position as he is second on the team in Total Red Zone Targets. With Carolina’s defense ranking below league average in Def DVOA, the Cowboys will be able to move the ball down the field at a more consistent rate which increases Ferguson’s chances of scoring.
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Even though Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 4.5 yards per carry, it was still an uncharacteristically quiet performance on the ground from the Detroit Lions speedster as he only generated a total of 54 yards while failing to find the back of the end zone. A stunning performance when you factor in how poor Cincinnati’s defense has played as they rank 26th in Run Defense Win Rate.
Fortunately for Gibbs, positive regression looms large over the NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender as he faces off against another front seven who ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate and in PFF Grade. Gibbs also plays a role in the Lions' pass attack when inside the 20, whether it is as a pass catcher on the outside or as a recipient of a dump off.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown has helped turn Detroit into a Super Bowl contender as the star wide receiver excels at exploiting the gaps in coverage while averaging over 10 yards per reception. When inside the 20, Brown has continued to thrive as he leads the team in Red Zone Targets while averaging over one touchdown per game.
With the Chiefs ranking near dead last in Pass Rush PFF Grade, Brown will have more time in the open field to break away from their coverage which increases the quality of Jared Goff’s throws. For some more exposure, escalator bet Brown’s touchdown scoring prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.
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