Jahmyr Gibbs odds to win the Offensive Player of the Year award have steadily climbed
The Lions Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed went down with injuries in week four
Cincinnati’s Chase Brown ranks near dead last in Yards Over Expected per Attempt
Since Joe Burrow went on IR, the Cincinnati Bengals have struggled to play at competitive level as their offense ranks below league average in most key metrics. Luckily for the Bengals, their offense will have the opportunity to round back into form against Detroit as the Lions are expected to regress on defense with Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed both out with an injury.
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It has been a forgettable start to the season for the Cincinnati Bengals' offense as they head into week five ranked near dead last in Off DVOA and in EPA. The drop off in production from preseason NFL MVP contender Joe Burrow to Jake Browning has been sizable as the backup quarterback resides near the bottom of the board in Quarterback EPA per play.
Fortunately for Browning, he will have a great opportunity to round back into form against Detroit as he faces off against a Lions secondary who has been decimated by injuries after Terrion Arnold and DJ Reed went down in week four. Especially with the Lions also ranking 28th overall in Pass Rush Win Rate as their lack of pressure will help further increase the quality of Browning’s throws.
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After a productive 2024 campaign, Chase Brown has struggled to carry over his momentum into this season as the Bengals' three-down back is currently near dead last in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. His offensive line failing to open up high-quality running lanes has played a major role in his struggles as the Bengals' front five ranks 32nd in Run Block PFF Grade.
In Sunday’s matchup against Detroit, Brown will continue to struggle to generate yards after contact as he faces off against a Lions front seven who blitzes their linebackers at the highest rate in the league. With extra bodies in the trenches, the chances of Brown reaching the second level of their defense drastically decrease.
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Speaking of blitzing, the Bengals' defense are far more conservative as their defense crashes down their middle at the lowest rate in the league. With their linebackers anchored in coverage, the Bengals have struggled to contain opposing running backs at the line of scrimmage as their defense ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate.
With the Bengals conceding ground to opposing running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs will have a great opportunity to generate an explosive play when he gets past the trenches. Especially with the Lions deep group of pass catchers stretching out the Bengals' secondary which will give Gibbs more room to work with.
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After splitting carries with David Montgomery for a majority of the year last season, Gibbs has started to carve out a larger role as the NFL Offensive Player of the Year contender leads his teammate in total Rush Attempts. Gibbs has also been the focal point of their offense when inside the 20 as he currently leads the team in Red Zone Carries.
With the Lions offense expected to get into scoring position at a more consistent rate, Gibbs will see an uptick in his total number of attempts which increases his chances of scoring. For some more exposure, escalator bet Gibbs anytime touchdown prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.
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