Best Patriots vs. Texans Prop Bets: The Texans Will Try (and Fail) to Stop Drake Maye

• When Texans tight end Dalton Schultz isn’t on the field, fellow tight end Cade Stover actually has a lower target share than when he is. 

• Texans running back Woody Marks is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. 

• Patriots tight end Hunter Henry leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns with eight. 

The Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs is here, and we have the No. 2-seeded New England Patriots taking on the No. 5-seeded Houston Texans. 

With both teams winning in the Wild Card round, the Patriots are now +600 and the Texans are +800 in the latest Super Bowl odds. 

Below are three prop bets for this matchup. 

Best Patriots vs. Texans Prop Bets

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Cade Stover Under 1.5 Receptions (-200) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In the Wild Card round, in a 30-6 win over the Steelers, Stover had a 6.3% target share, catching two passes on two targets for 13 yards. 

Over the course of this season, his target share was a mere 3.1%, catching 14 of 18 passes. He’s finished with one catch or fewer in five of nine games and in two of his last three games. 

The Patriots do allow 5.7 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, but ahead of Stover on the tight end depth chart is Dalton Schultz, who’s boasted an 18.8% target share this season, catching 85 of 110 passes. 

While the initial thought may be that Stover will see more targets should Schultz get hurt or when he’s not on the field, that hasn’t been the case. In fact, Stover’s target share goes down when Schultz isn’t on the field, at 2.8%.

Take the under. 

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Woody Marks Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook

While Marks managed to run for 112 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown against the Steelers, the Texans led most of the game and eventually blew them out to the point where it just made sense to run the ball and drain the clock. 

Here, the Texans are playing more from behind, which already sets up the Texans’ running game and leaves Marks behind the eight-ball. 

Marks has had a respectable season, rushing 196 times for 703 yards and two touchdowns during the regular season, but the efficiency numbers aren’t there at 3.6 yards per carry. 

The Patriots allow just 74.5 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (fifth-fewest), and they average only 3.88 yards per carry (fifth-fewest). 

I’m taking the under; the Patriots are strong against running backs and the game script may not allow Mark'sarks to run as much as he did in the Wild Card round. 

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Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+200) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Henry has been a favorite target of Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye, and that showed in the Wild Card round win over the Chargers. Henry was tied for team lead in target share (18.5%), catching three of five passes for 64 yards and a score. 

Now, he’ll face a Texans defense that’s stout, yes, but they’re allowed four touchdowns to tight ends over their last five games, which includes the Wild Card round. 

Over the course of this season, Henry is second on the team in target share at 18.1%, catching 63 of 92 passes for 832 yards and eight touchdowns. His eight touchdowns lead the team.

Furthermore, the Texans mostly play Cover-3. In addition to Maye completing over 75% of his passes for six touchdowns against it, Henry is tied for the team lead in catches versus it (28) and leads the team in touchdowns (three). 

At +200, I’ll take a swing. 

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