NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread: Can Stidham Go 2018 Nick Foles?

• The Broncos are the only team left that had a losing record against the spread (8-10)

• The Rams and Seahawks split their regular-season series, and neither game ended more than two points apart

• Jarrett Stidham will start at QB for the Broncos after Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle last week

There are only three games left in the NFL season, and two of them are happening this weekend in the conference championships. 

Two of the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams will book their ticket to the Super Bowl after the conclusion of Sunday’s games. The postseason has been filled with thrilling moments and unforgettable matchups, all of which helped build to this moment.

For more info, see our Super Bowl odds and predictions.

As the NFL approaches the all-time do-or-die stage, here are my best bets against the spread for NFL conference championship weekend.

• My 2026 NFL Playoff betting stats: 5-5 (50%)

NFL Conference Championships Picks ATS

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Patriots vs. Broncos - Jan. 25, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-115), Broncos +4.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Patriots -250, Broncos +205

• Total: Over/under 42 (-110/-110)

The Patriots won and covered the spread with ease in both of their playoff matchups, outsourcing the LA Chargers and Houston Texans by a combined score of 44-19, yet their performances weren’t all that convincing. Second-team All-Prop quarterback Drake Maye has a negative EPA and four touchdowns to five turnovers, and their 4.1 yards per carry would rank in the bottom 10 in the league if applied to the entire season.

Defensively, the Patriots have been on point. They produced six sacks against the Chargers and five turnovers against the Texans, and only allowed 9.5 points per game while ranking third in EPA per play in the playoffs. Their defensive front is going to be put through its most difficult test thus far against the best offensive line in football.

Bo Nix’s tragic ankle injury in the final moments of a divisional round victory over the Buffalo Bills means that backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will see an NFL field for the first time since Week 18 of the 2023 season. The 29-year-old former fourth-round pick has eight touchdowns, eight interceptions, and completed 59.4 percent of his career passing attempts; but to be fair, he’s been in the Broncos’ system for three years, and Denver doesn’t approach weekends with the mentality that their quarterback needs to go win them the game.

The Broncos’ defense posted the lowest success rate and the highest sack percentage in all of football. The Patriots allowed five sacks in their first two games and, as mentioned, haven’t always stayed ahead of the chains on the ground, which means that Denver's defense has a chance to set the tone of the contest. Nix has shown up in fourth quarters, but finding a way to avoid chasing points will greatly limit the drawbacks of having a backup QB under center.

Both teams have played exceptionally well all year, yet both have questions they still need to answer. The Broncos won the most one-score games in NFL history, which is a largely unsustainable method, while the Patriots only beat one team with a winning record during the regular season, and then were fortunate enough to play the worst offensive line in football and a QB in C.J. Stroud who totally lost his head. All things considered, this line is too many points, given the strength of Denver’s defense, their home-field advantage, and New England’s offensive regression.

Patriots vs. Broncos pick: Broncos +4.5 (-105) at bet365

Rams vs. Seahawks - Jan. 25, 4:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams +2.5 (-105), Seahawks -2.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Rams +125, Seahawks -150

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

Presumptive MVP Matthew Stafford might not have been great last weekend, but he produced his best stuff when he needed it the most in the final moments. Now, he’ll take on a defense that was second in EPA per play, against whom he puzzlingly only had 130 yards and two touchdowns in a win in the middle of the season, but against whom he also had 457 yards and three touchdowns in a loss in Week 16. Notably, Stafford really struggled against pressure in the playoffs, although he still has three touchdowns and one interception overall.

The Rams’ defense led the league in EPA per play until the middle of the season, when they fell off a cliff. They regained their old form in last weekend’s overtime win against the Chicago Bears, forcing three interceptions and creating multiple negative “splash” plays against the run. They picked off Sam Darnold six times in their two meetings, but they also struggled to contain the run in both instances.

Seattle’s one and only appearance in these playoffs saw them kick in the San Francisco 49ers’ teeth in a 41-6 demolition. Darnold didn’t have to do much, as Kenneth Walker III ran for 116 yards and three touchdowns, Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, and the 49ers turned the ball over three times. 

Seattle’s defense doesn’t create havoc in the way the Texans’ does, but they play extremely sticky coverage and allow a league-low 3.7 yards per carry. They are connected, multiple, and don’t make mistakes, which is why opposing offenses tend to struggle so much. However, they weren’t in the same universe as Stafford the last time they met, even though they won.

The combined score of these teams’ two regular-season meetings was 58-57, and both teams won once and lost the other time, never by more than two points. According to DVOA, this is the best matchup of the last 47 years, and by a relatively wide margin. The difference for me is that Sean McVay and Stafford are extremely experienced and have been on this stage, while Mike MacDonald and Darnold can’t say the same, even if they’re headed for future greatness.

Rams vs. Seahawks pick: Rams +2.5 (-105) at bet365