NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: Picks for Every Matchup of the Week

• The Colts have covered the spread by a league-best average of 13 points

• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread by a league-worst average of 16.3 points

• Despite the historical precedent, road favorites have been money-makers

I’ve given my best bets against the spread every week of the NFL season, and I’m yet to have a losing week—and with Week 4 on the horizon, I’ve got more bets to share.

The Indianapolis Colts are the only team to go 3-0 against the spread, while the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans are the only teams to go 0-3. Favorites have covered in more than 56 percent of games, and away favorites are all the way up at 60 percent ATS thus far.

Which teams made the list of my best bets this week? Here are my best NFL picks against the spread for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Let’s roll.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 26-20-2 (56.5% ATS)

NFL Week 4 Picks ATS

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Seahawks vs. Cardinals - Sept. 25, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +1 (-115), Cardinals -1 (-105)

• Moneyline: Seahawks -110, Cardinals -110

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Seahawks are 2-1 and would be 3-0 if Brock Purdy hadn’t engineered a comeback in the final two minutes of the season opener. They dismantled the Saints last weekend, 44-13, and beat the Steelers by 14 points the week before, and they’ve found lots of success on the defensive side of the football. Despite that, they’re only 10th in EPA per play on defense and 18th on offense.

The Cardinals are a traditional “average” team, meaning they’ll be competitive against many teams, will drop the occasional stinker, and will occasionally take down a strong opponent. They’re 2-1 and also have a lone loss to the 49ers, which came last week as time expired, 16-15. Jonathan Gannon’s defense has started to take shape, and Kyler Murray looks to be right around the 15th-best quarterback in the NFL.

The Seahawks have garnered a lot of belief after the last two weeks, but I’m worried that we’re letting the carriage pull the horse. This team can look disjointed on offense when its running game isn’t going, and it depends heavily on the play of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Cardinals are at home on a short week and have been steady, which is why I’m going to back them.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals pick: Cardinals -1 (-105) at bet365

Vikings vs. Steelers - Sept. 28, 9:30 A.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings -2.5 (-115), Steelers +2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Vikings -150, Steelers +125

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

What Brian Flores’ defense is doing to the rest of the NFL should be considered a war crime. They lead the league in EPA per play with a mark more than twice as good as the second-ranked team, which is shockingly the Jaguars. Carson Wentz is not a desirable long-term solution, but he went for 173 yards and two TDs in his Vikings debut last week, while the running game racked up 169 yards on 31 carries.

The Steelers look like they always do. They force turnovers, run the ball at low efficiency, and look to within the margins. Aaron Rodgers can still sling the ball around, but he’s also far more prone to checking it down or throwing it to the wrong team than he has been at any point in his career.

Pittsburgh forced five turnovers last week and still needed until the final couple of minutes to break a deadlock with the Patriots. The Vikings, meanwhile, routed the Bengals, 48-10, and might be in a better spot with Wentz in place of J.J. McCarthy. Rodgers’ lack of mobility and hair trigger in the pocket, combined with Flores’ game-breaking defense, make this a must-bet for the visitors.

Vikings vs. Steelers pick: Vikings -2.5 (-115) at bet365

Panthers vs. Patriots - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +5.5 (-110), Patriots -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers +205, Patriots -250

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Panthers were awful against the Jags in Week 1, were effectively blown out by the Cardinals in Week 2 (but still backdoor covered after they scored three touchdowns in the final quarter and change), and then beat the Falcons 30-0. Bryce Young still does not look the NFL part, although the team defense has been better than expected. The key for them will be keeping this a low-scoring game and controlling the clock.

The Pats turned the ball over five times and still had a chance to beat the Steelers last week, although they came up short. Drake Maye took a step, but not a leap, forward, and the defense has been disappointing. The team is already 0-2 at home and is looking to end that brutal streak.

Both of these teams have been wildly inconsistent thus far, the Panthers game-to-game, and the Pats seemingly drive-to-drive. The Panthers don’t have the offense to compete in high-scoring games, but their solid defense can hang with what the Pats’ offense has put on tape thus far. This is a difficult game to pick, but I’d roll with the Patriots.

Panthers vs. Patriots pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Browns vs. Lions - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +9 (-110), Lions -9 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +375, Lions -500

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

The Browns shocked the world and took down the Green Bay Packers right in the middle of their Super Bowl odds surge after a long week of rest, 13-10. Their passing game was extremely limited, but Quinshon Judkins ran for 94 yards on 18 carries against one of the best defenses in the league. Cleveland, once again, has a Super Bowl defense, but next to no offensive support.

The Lions took their show on the road to score 38 points in a win over the Ravens on Monday Night Football. They’ll get a short week of rest, but they get to go back to their preferred environment at home in a dome. They also averaged 45 points per game over their last two outings after a dud against Green Bay in the opener.

This has the makings of a game that starts close, but that the Lions find a way to open up in the fourth quarter. Cleveland’s defense is good enough to hang with anybody, but they don’t have much of a chance of scoring points with any team in the league not named New Orleans, Carolina, or Tennessee. It’s a close call, but I’ll ride with the Lions.

Browns vs. Lions pick: Lions -9 (-110) at bet365

Chargers vs. Giants - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers -6 (-110), Giants +6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Chargers -275, Giants +225

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Justin Herbert took over last week’s game against the Broncos with a series of late throws, including the game-winner, that only a handful of people in the entire world could make. The Bolts still haven’t found their running game, but their defense and offensive line are elite. They have a very high floor and a higher ceiling than in years past, with added weapons and another year in Jim Harbaugh’s system.

I don’t know if the Giants are as bad as they were in Week 1 and Week 3 or are somewhere between that and their Week 2 showing, but I’m confident that they aren’t good. They have talent in certain spots but appear poorly coached and out of sync. There’s also a chance that Jaxson Dart gets to play in the second half if Russell Wilson doesn’t improve.

Betting on road favorites is normally square, but it’s been a profitable approach this season. The G-Men have a path to staying close if Cam Skattebo continues to be effective on the ground and if their defensive line can take control of the game, but they’re still far off from the Chargers. Give me the favorites.

Chargers vs. Giants pick: Chargers -6 (-110) at bet365

Saints vs. Bills - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +16.5 (-110), Bills -16.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +900, Bills -1600

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

So, the Saints are terrible—so terrible that the implied score of this game is about 32-16. They lost at home last week 44-13, and they’re 25th in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Shockingly, that means they are still clear of several teams, but it’s tough to find any real redeeming qualities for this team.

The Bills look like the best team in the NFL through three weeks of play, although they failed to cover an 11.5-point line in a 31-21 win over the Dolphins on TNF. They have the added benefit of getting a long week of rest and playing at home, as if they need extra advantages to win this game. Ironically, Josh Allen’s best statistical games seem to come against higher-tier opponents.

In no universe would I argue that the Saints are in the same universe as the Bills. However, asking a professional football team not to lose by three scores isn’t the most unreasonable request in the world, regardless of who they’re playing. Spencer Rattler has quietly moved the ball and only turned the ball over once, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Saints covered in a 14-point loss.

Saints vs. Bills pick: Saints +16.5 (-110) at bet365

Eagles vs. Buccaneers - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-110), Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -190, Buccaneers +160

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

I was totally unimpressed by the Eagles’ first 10 quarters of the season, but they showcased their undeniable championship pedigree in their second-half comeback against the Rams. Something seemed to click for their passing game during that stretch, although their defense has been average at best. This is a great opportunity for them to go against a Bucs team that could be down three offensive linemen at kickoff.

Baker Mayfield has continued to elevate his level of play, although he will likely be without Mike Evans on Sunday. That means rookie Emeka Egbuka and sophomore Bucky Irving will have huge roles to play, and the defense will need to be at its best. Lucky for them, the Bucs lead the NFL in EPA per play against the run, while Saquon Barkley is averaging 64.7 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.

Taking care of the ball has to be a priority in this game. The Bucs have been tremendous at stopping the run, but they also haven’t done a nice job at defending against opposing passers. Live betting opportunities will be plentiful in this game depending on whether the Eagles come out attacking the airways with the same fervor, but I’d take them to cover against an injured Bucs squad.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers pick: Eagles -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Titans vs. Texans - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +7 (-110), Texans -7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +275, Texans -350

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Cam Ward averaged 168.7 passing yards per game and is 31st in QBR, and the Titans are averaging just 17 points per game. Despite that, their offensive EPA per play, which is 31st, is only two spots behind the Texans (29th), and they have the same success rate. The defense must improve, but the offense stands to get considerably better if it fixes its pass protection and dropped-ball issues.

C.J. Stroud doesn’t look anything remotely close to the player he was when he took the league by storm as a rookie. He’s 26th in QBR and is coming off a game in which he threw for 204 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions against the Jaguars. The defense is good, not great, they can’t block, and they can’t run the football.

This could turn into an ugly game filled with mistakes and turnovers. The Texans are better than the Titans, but I’m also not sure how much room for improvement they have, whereas the Titans have room to grow. I’d love this line at +7.5, but I’ll take it at +7 too.

Titans vs. Texans pick: Titans +7 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Falcons - Sept. 28, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders -1.5 (-110), Falcons +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders -120, Falcons +100

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Washington is one of the most injured teams in the league, with Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, and Trey Amos all at risk of missing this game, while several others have already been ruled out. On a positive note, the team ran for 174 yards on 10.2 yards per carry in the first half just last week, and their defense leads the league in both pressure rate and third-down conversion rate. Marcus Mariota has also been outstanding when filling in over the last couple of seasons.

The Falcons, rather shockingly, have an elite defense and a terrible offense. That’s despite them struggling to rush the passer for years and having a treasure trove of weapons for their quarterback to access. It’s unclear if Michael Penix Jr. will retain his starting spot after he was benched during a 30-0 loss to the Panthers last week.

Injuries make this game extremely difficult to handicap. I still believe the Commanders are the better team, even on the road, if they play with the physicality they showed in Weeks 1 and 3. A win almost guarantees a cover, so I’d hesitantly back the visitors.

Commanders vs. Falcons pick: Commanders -1.5 (-110) at bet365

Colts vs. Rams - Sept. 28, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +3.5 (-110), Rams -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +160, Rams -190

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Statistically, the Rams are off to a better start than anybody in the NFL. They’re the only team that’s 3-0 against the spread and have Daniel Jones looking like an NFL MVP candidate, Jonathan Taylor an NFL Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner, and a lights-out defense. The question is if they will be crushed by regression to the mean or if the league grossly miscalculated what they had.

The Rams were totally dominating the Eagles until they… weren’t. Sean McVay didn’t do anything wrong, and they still would’ve won the game had they not had two kicks blocked in the fourth quarter. They are fifth and sixth in defensive and offensive EPA per play and get to play back on their home field on the West Coast.

With great respect to what the Colts have done, I don’t believe that they’re the same caliber of team as the Rams. I also expect the Rams to come out with fire in their veins following their total collapse last week, while the Colts could reasonably be in for a letdown here. I like the Rams to win and win big in all three phases.

Colts vs. Rams pick: Rams -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Jaguars vs. 49ers - Sept. 28, 4:05 P.M. ET

• Spread: Jaguars +3 (-105), 49ers -3 (-115)

• Moneyline: Jaguars +145, 49ers -170

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

You’ll never believe this, but the Jaguars are second in the NFL in defensive EPA per play. How they’ve managed to make Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. look like Chase Claypool and late-career Kelvin Benjamin is a complete mystery, but they’re still 2-1 and should be 3-0 if they could’ve handled their business against Jake Browning. The coaching staff is also aggressive and analytics-driven.

The 49ers are either playing a banged-up Brock Purdy or Mac Jones for another week. They just lost Nick Bosa for the year to a knee injury, and all of their wins were by five or fewer points thanks to late-game scoring drives. This team is playing within the margins every time they step on the field.

The Niners are incredibly banged up, while the Jags should be better offensively than they’ve shown. The Niners defense could feasibly collapse without Bosa, while the Jags have been stellar on that end. Give me the dogs.

Jaguars vs. 49ers pick: Jaguars +3 (-105) at bet365

Ravens vs. Chiefs - Sept. 28, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-120), Chiefs +2.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Ravens -150, Chiefs +125

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

The matchup of the week is also a potential season-defining encounter for the Ravens, who are at risk of dropping to 1-3. Lamar Jackson’s stats are incredible, but red-zone miscues from him and a fumbling issue by Derrick Henry have appeared at the worst moments. The Ravens’ defense also cannot stop giving away big plays and looks stagnant in the middle of the field.

Even in their first win of the season against the Giants, the Chiefs did not look great. Patrick Mahomes is hamstrung by his lack of receiving weapons, and the defense is 23rd in success rate. Lucky for them, there’s a chance that Xavier Worthy makes his return to the lineup.

It’s time for the world to accept that the Chiefs’ dynasty is over… for now. They are not a good team, Patrick Mahomes does not look as confident as he did previously, they can’t run the ball, and their defense can’t get stops every time it needs to. The Ravens should be furious with their defensive effort and should come out with their hair on fire, even as a favorite in Arrowhead.

Ravens vs. Chiefs pick: Ravens -2.5 (-120) at bet365

Bears vs. Raiders - Sept. 28, 4:25 P.M. ET

• Spread: Bears +1 (-110), Raiders -1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears -105, Raiders -115

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Caleb Williams had a career-defining performance against the Cowboys last week, going for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-14 win at home. He has a chance to follow that up on Sunday, although it might be the running game that finds the most success. The Raiders used stack boxes at the highest rate in the NFL, but despite that, they allowed the third-highest yards per carry on stacked-box runs, while D’Andre Swift averaged 0.8 YPCOE against stacked boxes.

The Raiders’ offensive line looks like it could be the worst in the sport, although the Bears are only 22nd in run stop and 30th in pass-rush win rate. Ashton Jeanty is yet to get going (through little fault of his own), and Geno Smith has an equal number of touchdowns and interceptions (four). Defense will be huge for the home team.

While I believe the Raiders are a respectable team, their offensive line play is deeply concerning. At the same time, the Bears haven’t done anything to suggest that they can be trusted on a weekly basis. This is the toughest matchup of the week to call, but I’ve made my decision.

Bears vs. Raiders pick: Bears +1 (-110) at bet365

Packers vs. Cowboys - Sept. 28, 8:20 P.M. ET

• Spread: Packers -7 (-110), Cowboys +7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -350, Cowboys +275

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

No CeeDee Lamb is an enormous blow against a Packers defense that has been suffocating and has immense speed all over the field. The revenge factor of Micah Parsons can’t be discounted here, and the offense will be licking its chops after seeing what Caleb Williams did to the Cowboys’ D last week. 40-burger, anyone?

Dak Prescott is going to sling the football into tight windows. That’s needed against a defense like this one, but without Lamb, that could lead to him throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns. Dallas’ defense also has the second/worst EPA per play mark in the NFL, ahead of only the Dolphins.

The Packers have to be furious with their loss last week, and there’s no better opportunity to exact revenge than against the team that traded Parsons to them. Green Bay’s receivers have consistently separated deep down the field and get to face a team they know will be in zone on 99% of snaps. 

Packers vs. Cowboys pick: Packers -7 (-110) at bet365 

Jets vs. Dolphins - Sept. 29, 7:15 P.M. ET

• Spread: Jets +3 (-120), Dolphins -3 (+100)

• Moneyline: Jets +125, Dolphins -150

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

Justin Fields’ status is in question as he continues to work his way back from concussion protocol. The Jets pulled off an outstanding backdoor cover last week, but they had their hearts broken by a game-ending field goal against the Bucs. Aaron Glenn’s team is 23rd in offensive and 28th in defensive EPA per play, but at least their losses against the Steelers and Bucs were only by two points.

The Dolphins covered in a 10-point loss against the Bills last week but are 0-3 for the year. Tua Tagovailoa has played like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and the defense is simply atrocious. All that said, this is still a divisional game at home after a long week of rest.

It’s unclear if Fields or Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the Jets, but either way, the offense hasn’t looked good. They have underperforming defensive talent, while the Dolphins have underperforming offensive talent. Injuries are killing Miami’s defense, and I am worried they might continue to go winless.

Jets vs. Dolphins pick: Jets +3 (-120) at bet365

Bengals vs. Broncos - Sept. 29, 8:15 P.M. ET

• Spread: Bengals +7 (-105), Broncos -7 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bengals +320, Broncos -400

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

Jake Browning is a solid backup quarterback, although he was made to look like a fool against Brian Flores’ suffocating defense last weekend. Cincinnati’s offense has been pitiful in every aspect, which is a major issue considering the state of their defense.

Bo Nix is looking like the player that his skeptics believed he was coming out of college, as he has been among the least-efficient players in the league. His job is going to get significantly easier than it has been, however, due to the level of competition. Denver’s defense has been pretty good and should be able to go hunting against Browning. 

The Bengals’ O has the talent to score points regardless of who is under center, but they simply haven’t done that thus far. I’m not a Nix fan, but he can also play much better than he has. I’d expect the Broncos to control the game, but I see a world in which the backdoor cover is open.

Bengals vs. Broncos pick: Bengals +7 (-105) at bet365

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