NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: Chiefs Back in Primetime, Eagles to Remain Perfect?

• The Ravens are +2.5 underdogs against the Texans with Lamar Jackson ready to miss the matchup

• The Eagles (-3.5) and Bills (-7.5) are the only undefeated teams remaining

• There are no perfect or winless teams against the spread

We’re one month into the 2025 NFL season, and I haven’t had a losing week with my best bets against the spread.

Last week was the first time we were held to a .500 record. A few poor picks on my part kept us out of the green, but if an even record is as bad as it gets, we’re still doing it the right way!

As the NFL world transitions to October and the jack-o-lanterns come out, I’ve got my best bets against the spread for Week 5 ready to rock. Ready? Here we go.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 34-28-2 (54.8% ATS)

NFL Week 5 Picks ATS

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49ers vs. Rams - Oct. 2, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +5.5 (-110), Rams -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: 49ers +210, Rams -260

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

I’m not a huge believer in Brock Purdy, who threw two touchdowns and two interceptions in both of his appearances this season. The 49ers’ defense just gave up 26 points and 32:31 time of possession to the Jaguars at home, confirming that their defense will take a significant step back without Nick Bosa on the field. Injuries are taking their toll on this team, but Christian McCaffrey hasn’t rushed for 70 yards in a game, and their offensive line is 21st and 29th in pass-block and run-block win rate.

The Rams are riding high after they beat the red-hot Colts 27-20 behind 375 yards and three touchdowns from Matthew Stafford. Sean McVay’s offense ranks 10th in EPA per play, but quietly, the defense is fourth in the same category. This team is one (or two) blocked field goals away from being 4-0 with wins over the Colts and Eagles, and they’re already 2-0 in their building.

Hosting an injured divisional rival with an offensive and defensive advantage makes this pick easy to call. The Niners are 3-1, but they also faced an easy schedule and were off the pace against the Jags last week. This could be the start of a slide, and I’ll take the Rams to comfortably cover.

49ers vs. Rams pick: Rams -5.5 (-110) at bet365

Vikings vs. Browns - Oct. 5, 9:30 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Vikings -3.5 (-110), Browns +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Vikings -190, Browns +160

• Total: Over/under 36.5 (-110/-110)

J.J. McCarthy is out again this weekend, which means Carson Wentz will be back under center. The one-time near-MVP completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 523 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions in two appearances thus far, one in a win, and the other, in a loss. The Vikings’ defense is the out-and-out leader in EPA allowed per play and has been mostly outstanding, though it gave up too many chunk plays last week.

The Browns finally have a running game again with Quinshon Judkins, but Joe Flacco is immobile and turnover-prone. Cleveland’s defense is nothing to sneeze at and figures to get Wentz, who never met a sack he didn’t love, on the ground. The issue here will be consistently moving the ball against an elite and opportunistic defense.

International games are normally an equalizer, but the Vikings will have been across the pond for straight weeks, giving them the advantage. The Browns have a troublesome defense, but the same could be said about the Vikings. Flacco is at much more of a risk to throw an interception than Wentz, and ball security wins games. 

Vikings vs. Browns pick: Vikings -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Cowboys vs. Jets - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (-110), Jets +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -150, Jets +125

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The Cowboys have proven they can score points. Dak Prescott is playing at one of the highest levels of any quarterback in the league, and the offense’s protection plan for Micah Parsons and company was outstanding. Their defense is still abysmal, but they can move the ball with anyone in the league, even without CeeDee Lamb.

The Jets are still scraping to find their first win of the season, as self-inflicted mistakes have killed them thus far. That said, the “mistake” excuse can only stretch so far when they rank 21st in offensive and 28th in defensive EPA per play. This team’s best chance of winning comes from having a strong day on the ground with Justin Fields spearheading their attack.

The Cowboys have the worst defense in the NFL through one month of action, but it’s mostly their pass coverage that has killed them. Fields is reluctant to push the ball down the field, and Dallas’ offense should be able to get past the Jets’ defense. NY won’t stay winless forever, but they will this week.

Cowboys vs. Jets pick: Cowboys -2.5 (-110) at bet365

Broncos vs. Eagles - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos +3.5 (-110), Eagles -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos +165, Eagles -200

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Bo Nix rekindled some of the form he found during his rookie season in a Monday Night home victory against the Bengals and their horrible defense. Denver’s defense is playing at an elite level for the second year running, checking in at fourth in EPA allowed per play. Their offensive line has also been outstanding, although they haven’t scored efficiently.

The Eagles’ simple and advanced metrics aren’t impressive, and their 4-0 record is a testament to their togetherness and championship pedigree. That said, there are shades of the Chiefs' last year, in that they seem to win games despite having tangible flaws. They only gained 200 yards of offense last week, while Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and the defense is 12th in EPA per play.

Philly’s resilience and ability to produce winning plays regardless of the situation are incredibly impressive. However, it also means that they are vulnerable. This game feels like it is on a knife-edge, and Nix’s ability to play a clean game will determine if the visitors do or don’t cover.

Broncos vs. Eagles pick: Eagles -3.5 (-110) at bet365

Texans vs. Ravens - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans -2.5 (-110), Ravens +2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Texans -135, Ravens +115

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Houston’s first win of the season came in dramatic fashion last week as they beat the Titans 26-0. However, that game was just 6-0 halfway through the fourth quarter, which is yet another sign that their offense is in a terrible place. This team is highly impactful on defense, but their terrible offensive line and lack of cohesion are glaring issues—ones that could result in DeMeco Ryans potentially losing his job.

Cooper Rush went 9-13 for 52 yards while filling in for Lamar Jackson in last week’s 37-20 loss to the Chiefs. Baltimore’s defense has given out big plays like Halloween candy thus far and is a major reason why they are only 1-3. Without Jackson, look for Derrick Henry to receive a huge workload in a ground-and-pound style of game.

The Texans’ strength on defense revolves around their ability to bother opposing quarterbacks. They aren’t stellar against the run, and their offensive issues are concerning. As crazy as it might sound, I like the Ravens to win outright.

Texans vs. Ravens pick: Ravens +2.5 (-110) at bet365

Raiders vs. Colts - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +6.5 (-105), Colts -6.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Raiders +250, Colts -310

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

The Raiders had the fourth-highest success rate in the league last week, yet they lost to the Bears, who were only 19th in the category. Ashton Jeanty finally got out of the blocks and was outstanding, but Geno Smith tossed another three interceptions, bringing him to seven in four games. Vegas’ offensive line is abysmal, and their poor defense, which is bang-average, can’t get the offense to stop shooting itself in the foot.

The Colts started the year unfathomably hot, led by stellar play from Daniel Jones. That said, Jones had 262 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions last week, and looked more like the player the NFL world was accustomed to during his time with the Giants. Indy’s defensive line has been terrible, which works to the Raiders’ benefit due to their deficiencies at the point of attack.

The Raiders can be a solid team if they stop chucking interceptions and forgetting to block. The Colts started hot, but they are still waiting to beat a legitimately good team. I’m going to fade the hype and rock with the Raiders in hope they don’t turn the ball over for fun yet again.

Raiders vs. Colts pick: Raiders +6.5 (-105) at bet365

Dolphins vs. Panthers - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins -1 (-110), Panthers +1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Dolphins -120, Panthers +100

• Total: Over/under 44 (-110/-110)

Is this the game of the week (in the worst way possible)? The Dolphins picked up their first win of the season on Monday, but it cost them Tyreek Hill’s season-long health. Tua Tagovailoa is 28th in QBR and effectively relegated to checking the ball down to De’Von Achance, who is inconsistent as a runner.

The Panthers were just walloped by the Patriots on the road, 42-13. Their only previous home game this season ended in a 30-0 victory over the Falcons, though their offense still wasn’t great in that game. Bryce Young appears to be playing his way out of town, but the Carolina defense is 11th in success rate.

Professional teams and professional athletes don’t enjoy being embarrassed. The Dolphins should know that their window has closed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick. I’ll take the Panthers to win in front of their fans in a strong defensive showing.

Dolphins vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +1 (-110) at bet365

Giants vs. Saints - Oct. 5, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +1 (-110), Saints -1 (-110)

• Moneyline: Giants -105, Saints -115

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

There was a lot to like about the Giants’ performance in Jaxson Dart’s NFL debut last week. Although he only passed for 111 yards, he commanded the offense well and led an effective, albeit inconsistent, running game. The massive downside is that Malik Nabers suffered a torn ACL last week, leaving the Giants with very few weapons to support their rookie signal caller.

Surprisingly, Spencer Rattler has been alright this season. The Saints are still a horrible football team overall, but they can move the ball, and they’re at home. Limiting turnovers and potentially grabbing one off of Dart, combined with a solid day from their offensive line, could help them snag their first win of the season.

The Giants’ lack of weapons leaves me with a great deal of concern. With that said, the Saints rank 23rd, 27th, 31st, and 31st in pass- and run-blocking metrics on the offensive and defensive line. The visitors have the opportunity to win with the strength of their team, the defensive line, but I believe they will fall short.

Giants vs. Saints pick: Saints -1 (-110) at bet365

Buccaneers vs. Seahawks - Oct. 5, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110), Seahawks -3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +155, Seahawks -185

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Tampa Bay outplayed the Eagles on paper last week, holding them to 200 yards of offense, winning the time of possession battle, and scoring 25 points on the road, yet they still came up short. Still, the offense performed well against a strong defense despite being down a couple of starting linemen, while the defense did a brilliant job as it has all season. This team is dangerous and is never out of a fight thanks to Baker Mayfield.

If there’s a better defensive mind in football than Mike MacDonald that isn’t named Brian Flores or Steve Spagnuolo, I’d like to meet them. Seattle’s defense plays tough zone coverage, and their offense has been fairly effective. This is a great test for them at home and with Tampa flying across the country as the best team they’ve seen this season.

The Seahawks were one of my sleeper teams entering the year. It’s tough not to love the impact that MacDonald has had since he showed up in town, but with that said, the Bucs’ defense is playing lights out at the moment. This will be tough for Sam Darnold, who I believe is still slightly hamstrung by his receiving options, and an inconsistent running game. The Bucs can lose by a field goal and still cover, and that’s too much for me to pass up.

Buccaneers vs. Seahawks pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110) at bet365

Titans vs. Cardinals - Oct. 5, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +7.5 (-110), Cardinals -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Titans +350, Cardinals -450

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

Cam Ward’s stats this season are a whopping 614 yards for two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a QBR that ranks 33rd (keep in mind, there are only 32 teams in the NFL). Even still, it’s hard to pin all of the blame on him, given how terrible his team has looked in all three phases and the poor coaching he’s endured. Tennessee could be picking first in the draft two years in a row.

It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals being favored by more than a touchdown against any team with Kyler Murray’s inconsistency and the loss of James Conner. In their defense, they got 10 days of rest since they played on Thursday Night Football, and they battled back to keep the game close against the Seahawks. They need to win with defense and a clean game from Murray against a terrible defense.

The Titans flat-out stink. But as I said, I can’t see the Cardinals as deserving to be favored by more than a touchdown against any team right now. I’m calling my shot and predicting that Ward doubles his career passing touchdowns with two in this game to keep the Titans within 7.5 points.

Titans vs. Cardinals pick: Titans +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Lions vs. Bengals - Oct. 5, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions -10 (-110), Bengals +10 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions -525, Bengals +390

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Lions scored an average of 41.3 points over their last four games and just beat the Browns 34-10. Their offense is, once again, among the most efficient in the entire NFL, but their defense is quietly sixth in EPA allowed per play. Aidan Hutchinson is up to four sacks in four games and will be able to pin his ears back against a terrible Bengals offensive line.

Zac Taylor calls games for backup QB Jake Browning the same way he would if Joe Burrow were still under center. That’s an issue, seeing as Browning was kept to 140 or fewer in two full starts and has three touchdowns to five interceptions thus far. Cincy also can’t run the ball, block, or get stops on defense, so it’s tough to have much faith in them right now.

There’s no doubt that the Lions will win this contest. The question is if Browning will be able to move the ball enough, even at the risk of throwing interceptions, to keep this game within 10 points. The team shockingly came from behind to beat the Jaguars with him just a few weeks ago but was held to 13 total points the last two weeks, so I just can’t trust them.

Lions vs. Bengals pick: Lions -10 (-110) at bet365

Commanders vs. Chargers - Oct. 5, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders +3 (-115), Chargers -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: Commanders +140, Chargers -165

• Total: Over/under 48 (-110/-110)

Jayden Daniels is expected to make his return to the lineup, but it's the Commanders’ running game that is quietly the biggest story here. Jacory Crokey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr. rank second and eighth among running backs with 20+ carries in yards per carry, yet the pair only got seven carries each last week. The Commanders’ pass defense has been abysmal so far, and they’ll need to generate pressure to make up for the shortcomings in their secondary.

Justin Herbert was pressured on more than 50 percent of his dropbacks last week after Joe Alt left with an ankle injury. Despite being third in MVP odds, Herbert is only 22nd in EPA per play when he faces pressure, but he’s elite with a clean pocket. LA’s zone-heavy defense is third in EPA allowed per play and first in success rate, and it will be motivated after a tough loss against the Giants.

This game should be close, regardless of who wins. Washington is dealing with numerous injuries and could once again be without its top two wideouts and a pair of edge rushers, which spells trouble against the Chargers’ elite secondary and doesn’t give them a clear advantage against a pair of backup tackles. I’d favor the Chargers outright, but I think this could be a one-point contest.

Commanders vs. Chargers pick: Commanders +3 (-115) at bet365

Patriots vs. Bills - Oct. 5, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots +7.5 (-110), Bills -7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots +320, Bills -400

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

The Patriots’ two losses were by one touchdown each, and they turned the ball over five times in one of those. Granted, their two wins were against the Dolphins and Panthers, but they trounced the latter last week, 42-13. This game provides a great opportunity for them to set the true balance of their team against a divisional opponent in primetime.

The Bills haven’t been tested since they miraculously took down the Ravens thanks to 16 points in the final four minutes of their Week 1 contest. Wins over the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints greatly inflated their stats, although they didn’t cover in two straight weeks. Josh Allen and company are about to play at home for the fourth time in five weeks, so there’s a level of comfort against a new-look Pats squad.

It’s difficult to pinpoint where the Bills are since they’ve just beat up on terrible teams the last few weeks. The Patriots aren’t great, but Mike Vrabel showed that they have the ability to respond to adversity. I’ll take the Pats in a game they almost inevitably lose, but can bring a physical approach that keeps the game within striking distance.

Patriots vs. Bills pick: Patriots +7.5 (-110) at bet365

Chiefs vs. Jaguars - Oct. 6, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-105), Jaguars +3.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Chiefs -185, Jaguars +155

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Well, there they are! The Chiefs avoided falling to a 1-3 start by totally outclassing the Ravens behind 270 yards and four touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes in a 37-20 win at home. Their defense is still only 20th in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate, but they have a terrific coaching staff that will undoubtedly work out the kinks as the season progresses.

The Jags have gotten off to a brilliant start, going 3-1 and surprisingly posting the second-highest defensive EPA per play in the league. However, they achieved that by beating the Panthers, Texans, and 49ers, and throwing away a fourth-quarter lead at home against Jake Browning’s Bengals. The offensive struggles and sharp reduction in efficiency from key players such as Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter are the real headlines here.

Kansas City found its confidence last week and can head into Monday Night’s matchup with wind in its sails now that it’s getting key playmakers back from injury. Defense has been the backbone of the Jaguars, but I’m not convinced that will hold against high-level opponents. I think we’re looking at a blowout here.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars pick: Chiefs -3.5 (-105) at bet365

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