NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: Lions to Win in Arrowhead Again, Can the Bengals Be This Bad?

• The Colts, Jaguars, and Lions are tied for the league lead at 4-1 against the spread

• The Raiders, Ravens, and Bengals are 1-4 ATS

• I’m taking eight favorites, four of them on the road, and seven underdogs this week

Are we really at Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season already? Yes, we are, and I still have not had a losing week with my picks against the spread published right here at WSN.

Last week was highly successful, as my picks went 9-5 (64.3 percent) with standouts such as the Carolina Panthers +1 against the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints -1 against the New York Giants. The oddsmakers have done a stellar job of keeping nearly every group of picks around the 50 percent success mark, but away favorites have been profitable, covering the spread in 56.2 percent of games.

Which teams are the best to bet on in Week 6, and which picks made my list for the best spread bets? Let’s jump straight into my best NFL spread picks for Week 6.

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 43-33-2 (56.6% ATS)

NFL Week 6 Picks ATS

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Eagles vs. Giants - Oct. 9, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles -7.5 (-105), Giants +7.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Eagles -375, Giants +300

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-110/-110)

The Eagles’ poor performances finally caught up to them during Sunday’s home loss to the Broncos. Their 4-0 record felt a little like the Chiefs’ regular season last year, in that while they were winning games, they had glaring issues that were bound to derail them at one point. Their defense is still flying around to the ball, but A.J. Brown hasn’t gotten going, and Saquon Barkley is only averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

The Giants dropped a game on the road against the previously winless Saints last week, but they showed promising signs. Five giveaways will cripple any team, but the Giants held the Saints to 5.4 yards per play and 2.9 yards per carry and won the time of possession battle. Going back home will be positive for a rookie quarterback, although the Giants’ speed will be tested against Philly’s D.

I would urge everyone not to give up on the Giants as a competitive team just because they lost to the Saints. Jaxson Dart has proven that he can move the ball down the field, and the defensive line is stepping up to the plate. The main questions are if Philly can dominate the rock, hold the Giants out of the end zone when they enter the red zone, and find ways to get their best players going.

Eagles vs. Giants pick: Giants +7.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Broncos vs. Jets - Oct. 12, 9:30 A.M. ET 

• Spread: Broncos -7.5 (-110), Jets +7.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Broncos -400, Jets +310

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

Speaking of the Broncos, they went on the road to do what no NFL team had done this season: take down the defending champions. Bo Nix rallied from a mundane first half to drive his team down the field for a pair of touchdowns and a two-point conversion, while bold play-calling by Sean Payton ended up working to his team’s benefit. The defense was gashed by DeVonta Smith but has been excellent for nearly the entire season.

The Jets’ defense is quietly sixth in success rate, yet also 29th in EPA allowed per play, meaning that it wins on a down-to-down basis but gives up explosive plays. There’s a similar story on offense, except they often fail to generate big plays or shoot themselves in the foot. Aaron Glenn’s squad doesn’t look like they’ve given up, but they’ve also stat-padded in the fourth quarter of three straight games.

Every dog has its day—just ask the Saints. The Jets have demonstrated that they can play competitive football, but they are also routinely slow out of the blocks and have failed to cover in back-to-back contests.  They’ll need to play a clean game against a strong defense, but I believe that their ground-first approach could help them stay close.

Broncos vs. Jets pick: Jets +7.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cardinals vs. Colts - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cardinals +6 (-110), Colts -6 (-110)

• Moneyline: Cardinals +220, Colts -275

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

I said last week that the Cardinals didn’t deserve to be favored by a touchdown against any team, and they ended up losing to the Titans outright. Now, they find themselves catching six points against a Colts team that has shocked the NFL world and gotten off to a 4-1 start. While I could be critical of the Cardinals, they dominated the Titans until the fourth quarter and would’ve won comfortably had they not lost three fumbles.

The Colts have the second-most efficient offense in the league and a top-five defense based on EPA allowed per play. That said, they've only played one strong offense, and that resulted in their only loss of the season. The difficulty here is discerning if the Cardinals will hand the game away as they’ve been prone to do, or if they will take care of the ball and look like a standard “average” squad.

The Colts are obviously the rightful favorite in this contest. I’m still a little hesitant to fully buy into them, but they have all of the makings of a strong team, a genius head coach, and a defensive coordinator I hold tremendous respect for. I’ll begrudgingly take the Cardinals to cover out of the belief that Jonathan Gannon will have them clean up their fumbling issues.

Cardinals vs. Colts pick: Cardinals +6 (-110) at Fanatics

Chargers vs. Dolphins - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Chargers -4 (-115), Dolphins +4 (-105)

• Moneyline: Chargers -225, Dolphins +185

• Total: Over/under 45 (-110/-110)

The Chargers were their own worst enemy last week against the Commanders. Between a punt return touchdown that was called back because of a penalty, chunk-play passes that were also wiped out for infractions, and a late interception, they did their best to ensure that they would lose. At the same time, the issue with their offensive line persisted, and their zone-style defense was torn to pieces for the first time all year.

The Dolphins just lost a game against the Panthers in which they took a 17-0 lead in the second quarter. Their run defense is completely atrocious, and their injured secondary has left their pass defense without many answers, either. Oh, and they also can’t run the ball, and Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite target is his running back, De’Von Achane. 

It might not come as much of a surprise here, but I’m taking the Chargers in a slam-dunk victory in spite of their piling injuries. Justin Herbert did enough to win the game against the Commanders, but was sabotaged by his supporting cast. LA still has an elite defense and an offense significantly better than what Miami can roll out.

Chargers vs. Dolphins pick: Chargers -4 (-115) at Fanatics

Patriots vs. Saints - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots -3.5 (-110), Saints +3.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots -200, Saints +165

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

Mike Vrabel’s crew is rolling now that they’re 3-2 and just took down the Bills on the road in primetime. Drake Maye’s development has had its ups and downs, and the team still has a fumbling issue, but this offense is looking more and more like a well-oiled machine. Meanwhile, the defense ranked 11th in EPA allowed per play over the last two weeks after a slow start to the season.

Spencer Rattler scored the first win of his career as an NFL starter last week, but don’t let that fool you—he’s actually been solid thus far. He racked up 990 yards, six TDs, and one INT, while a scoop-and-score touchdown last week helped seal the deal against the Giants. The defense is playing at a level that’s right about in the middle of the league and just had its best showing of the season.

I expected the Saints to win last week, but I think they’re about to run into a brick wall. Maye’s growth, combined with the development on both sides of the ball, has the Patriots poised to go on a run as they face the Saints, Titans, and Browns in their next three games. I’ll take the visitors. 

Patriots vs. Saints pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Browns vs. Steelers - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Browns +5.5 (-110), Steelers -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Browns +200, Steelers -250

• Total: Over/under 38.5 (-110/-110)

Dillon Gabriel’s NFL debut as a starter could’ve been much worse. He went 19/33 for 190 yards and two touchdowns against Brian Flores’ hellacious defense, while Quinshon Judkins ran for another 110 yards on 23 carries. Big-play explosiveness was noticeably absent, and the Vikings still came out on top despite being -2 in the turnover column. 

An early bye week last week gave the Steelers time to prepare for a divisional game following their 3-1 start to the year. Nothing about this team has been overly impressive, and their wins have only come by three, seven, and two points. Still, they’ve been able to stay ahead of the chains, and Mike Tomlin is an excellent coach coming off of a bye.

The Browns posted the third-worst offensive success rate last week in what was their best offensive showing of the season, one in which they didn’t turn the ball over and got strong production from their lead back, Judkins. Tomlin is no stranger to frustrating rookie QBs, but the same could’ve been said about Flores. I could see this being a three- or four-point contest, leaving the Browns enough space to cover the spread.

Browns vs. Steelers pick: Browns +5.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Cowboys vs. Panthers - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (+100), Panthers +3.5 (-120)

• Moneyline: Cowboys -180, Panthers +159

• Total: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-110)

Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and has the offense ranked in the top six in success rate and EPA per play despite the injury-induced absence of CeeDee Lamb. Defense is an entirely different prospect, as Matt Eberflus’ crew has been nothing short of abysmal. They’ll hope to find balance against the Panthers after they gave up 32.5 points per game over the last month.

The Panthers fell into a 17-0 hole and still beat the Dolphins at home last week. Bryce Young’s bone-headed turnovers are an ever-present danger and have the potential to tip the balance of a game, but he can also make plays with his arm and his legs. More importantly, Rico Dowdle was outstanding last week, and the Panthers’ defense has quietly been approaching a top-10 level.

There are two questions to answer here: First, will the Panthers’ defense have answers for Prescott, and second, will Young take his team out of the game with turnovers? This is a strength-on-strength, weakness-on-weakness battle in every aspect. I bet on the Panthers last week, and I’ll do it again.

Cowboys vs. Panthers pick: Panthers +3.5 (-120) at Fanatics

Seahawks vs. Jaguars - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Seahawks +1.5 (-110), Jaguars -1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Seahawks +100, Jaguars -120

• Total: Over/under 46.5 (-110/-110)

Sam Darnold is easily one of the top three NFL MVP favorites through five weeks of football. Mike MacDonald is an outstanding defensive mind, and this team has all of the motivation in the world after their hard-fought loss to the Bucs last week. Trevor Lawrence is known to make mental mistakes, and the defense averaged 1.4 takeaways per game (t-ninth).

The Jags are, surprisingly, 4-1 and just beat the Chiefs in primetime. They get to play another week at home, but they’re about to face a team filled with confidence, but also anger, following their last result. How long can the offense continue to survive with Travis Hunter’s negligible impact and Brian Thomas Jr. taking a major step back from his rookie season? Only time will tell.

Both teams would consider themselves defense-first, but the Seahawks have an MVP-level QB and a potential NFL Offensive Player of the Year at receiver, while the Jags have been relatively pedestrian on offense all year. I like the Seahawks’ better on offense and on defense, and flying to Florida isn’t enough reason for me to turn my back on them.

Seahawks vs. Jaguars pick: Seahawks +1.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Rams vs. Ravens - Oct. 12, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -7.5 (-105), Ravens +7.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Rams -400, Ravens +310

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Sean McVay just can’t beat Kyle Shanahan. The Rams probably should be 5-0 with wins over the Eagles, Colts, and 49ers, but they couldn’t shut the door against Philly and blew a golden opportunity against San Fran. They still have top-10 units on both sides of the football and a QB in Matthew Stafford who, like Darnold, is firmly in the MVP conversation.

The Ravens are a miserable 1-4 and just fell to the Texans without Lamar Jackson, 44-10. Their MVP QB’s status is in question ahead of kick-off, and neither backup Cooper Rush nor their defense has suggested they’ll be able to carry the load in his absence. Derrick Henry also hasn’t surpassed 50 yards since Week 1.

I need to preface my pick by saying that it is only applicable if Jackson is ruled out for another game. Rush simply is not worth respecting from a betting perspective, and the Rams will be prepared for Henry after they held Saquon Barkley to 46 yards in 18 carries in Week 3. I have no choice but to expect a decisive victory for the Rams.

Rams vs. Ravens pick: Rams -7.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Titans vs. Raiders - Oct. 12, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Titans +4.5 (-105), Raiders -4.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Titans +190, Raiders -240

• Total: Over/under 41.5 (-105/-115)

Cam Ward decided to throw for 193 yards in the fourth quarter of last week’s win against the Cardinals after totaling just 72 through the first three.  The final score marked Tennessee's first win of the season, although they wouldn’t have gotten it if Emari Demercado hadn’t fumbled while walking into the end zone. The Titans are still 28th in defensive and 32nd in offensive EPA per play and have shown very few signs of life.

The Raiders’ investment in Geno Smith looks like an enormous mistake up to this point, as the newcomer has a league-leading nine interceptions in five games. Poor offensive line play has also doomed Ashton Jeanty, who has done a nice job of evading tackles but hasn’t achieved the raw output many expected him to. On the bright side, Vegas’ defense is playing a little above the league average.

I picked the Raiders as one of my “surprise” teams of 2025. That hasn’t panned out thus far, but I also believe that has a significant amount to do with Smith’s interceptions. As long as he doesn’t throw two or more in this game against a putrid offense and defense, I think the Raiders can dominate.

Titans vs. Raiders pick: Raiders -4.5 (-115) at Fanatics

Bengals vs. Packers - Oct. 12, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bengals +14.5 (-115), Packers -14.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Bengals +760, Packers -1200

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-110/-110)

Trading for Joe Flacco sent a signal that the team is done with Jake Browning, who may be about to make his final start for the Bengals. The Bengals’ offensive numbers are nothing short of disastrous, and their defense is once again among the worst in the league. Any chance of covering the spread would be banking on an outlier performance.

The Packers got last week off and tied against the Cowboys their last time on the field, 40-40. They’ve mostly looked like a dominant team with one disappointing game from their offense and one from their defense, albeit both times against quality opponents. Notably, the Packers would need to record a season-high in margin of victory to cover the spread.

Browning was a reputable backup in years past, but he has six touchdowns and eight interceptions in four games this season. Cincy’s defense gave up at least 27 points in four straight games and doesn’t have reason to believe it will improve. I hate laying the points on this large of a line, but I have to do it.

Bengals vs. Packers pick: Packers -14.5 (-105) at Fanatics

49ers vs. Buccaneers - Oct. 12, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: 49ers +3 (-115), Buccaneers -3 (-105)

• Moneyline: 49ers +130, Buccaneers -160

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-110/-110)

The 49ers are 4-1 after they just pulled off an unexpected road victory over the Rams without Brock Purdy. Mac Jones had quietly done an excellent job of filling in, even despite Christian McCaffrey being largely ineffective as a runner. Nick Bosa’s season-ending injury has left the defense without its top playmaker, which is why they’ve become about a league-average unit.

The Bucs are hot, and Baker Mayfield is playing like a future MVP. They just took down the Seahawks in a shootout on the road, 38-35, and get to head back home amid a 4-1 start of their own. This could be the best and most talented offense in football, while the defense has nearly identical marks to those of the Niners in EPA per play and success rate.

Defensively, this matchup is even. Offensively, I give the Bucs the edge, and a sizable one if Jones doesn’t continue his unexpected great play. Tampa’s speed and depth make them a handful for any team, especially on their home field. I’ll take them despite the 49ers getting 10 days of rest since last playing on Thursday Night Football.

49ers vs. Buccaneers pick: Buccaneers -3 (-115) at Fanatics

Lions vs. Chiefs - Oct. 12, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Lions +2.5 (-110), Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Lions +115, Chiefs -140

• Total: Over/under 52.5 (-110/-110)

Perhaps the Week 1 opener was a fluke, or the Packers are just very good at football. Either way, the Lions are riding a four-game winning streak and have scored at least 34 points in all of those games. Dan Campbell always has his team ready to go, and this time, he’s heading to Arrowhead with a unit that is in the top five for both offensive and defensive effectiveness.

The Chiefs just dropped a game to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football, 31-28, one in which they got significant help from the referees and still couldn’t take advantage. There’s a near-total inability to run the football in KC, and the defense is routinely playing behind the sticks. Patrick Mahomes also doesn’t seem to have the moment of magic, particularly down the field, like he used to.

I’ve been burned betting against the Chiefs in Arrowhead before. Taking the Lions here is undoubtedly the most terrifying play of the week due to the home team’s pedigree and consistency in front of their fans, but it’s a risk I have to take. Detroit is the better team, they won in Arrowhead a couple of years ago, and I believe they’ll do it again to send the Chiefs to 2-4.

Lions vs. Chiefs pick: Lions +2.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Bills vs. Falcons - Oct. 13, 7:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bills -4.5 (-105), Falcons +4.5 (-115)

• Moneyline: Bills -210, Falcons +175

• Total: Over/under 50 (-110/-110)

The Bills got their first taste of facing a good team since their season-opener against the Ravens last week in a loss to the Patriots. Now, they head on the road to face the Falcons inside of a dome on Monday Night Football. Josh Allen has the offense humming at an elite level, but he got careless with the football last week, and the defense hasn’t been able to take over games.

The Falcons have all of the offensive talent in the world and a defense that is well beyond anything they had in recent seasons. They had a bye last week after their 34-27 win over the Commanders, meaning they got 15 days of preparation for this matchup. The biggest question is if Michael Penix Jr.’s inaccuracy will continue to plague him, or if the coaching staff can put him in positions to succeed like they did the last time he was on the field.

There are contrasting elements here, namely the Falcons’ rest and recent performance against the Bills’ championship standard and pursuit of revenge following their recent loss. Playing in a dome will be a nice change for the Bills, though they have proven they can survive in any venue in the NFL. I haven’t seen enough consistency from Penix Jr. yet to totally back him knowing the pressure that Sean McDermott will put on his squad.

Bills vs. Falcons pick: Bills -4.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Bears vs. Commanders - Oct. 13, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Bears +4.5 (-110), Commanders -4.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Bears +185, Commanders -225

• Total: Over/under 50.5 (-105/-115)

Ah, the rematch of the Hail Mary game. Caleb Williams and the Bears have been outstanding with their scripted work but have been wildly inconsistent in the following drives and quarters. Their running game also leaves a lot to be desired, sy allowed a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry.

Jayden Daniels knocked off the rust he showed early in his return to the field last Sunday and finished playing at an MVP level in a 27-10 win over the Chargers. That said, LA did its best to play itself out of the game with costly penalties and a pair of turnovers. Washington’s run defense has been excellent, but their secondary has been questionable at best, and much worse than that when the pass-rush hasn’t gotten home.

The Commanders were the better team during last year’s face-off, yet they were trailing with a few seconds left. They’ll need to turn up the heat on Williams and prevent him from getting outside of the pocket, where he’s at his best, and where their corners are vulnerable. I’ll still take the Commanders thanks to them leading the NFL in yards per carry against one of the worst run defenses in league history.

Bears vs. Commanders pick: Commanders -4.5 (-110) at Fanatics

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