NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: Bucs-Lions NFC Championship Preview and Best Bets from Every Matchup

• No NFL team is better than 4-2 against the spread

• The Ravens are the only team that is 1-5 ATS, and nobody is 0-6

• The most successful group of teams is away favorites, though they’re still only 52.5% ATS

Not to toot my own horn, but I haven’t had a single losing week against the spread despite picking every game this NFL season—and don’t worry, I’m here to share every pick for Week 7.

Underdogs were a huge success last week for me, with the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals representing a few that came through. I struck out in both Monday Night Football matchups but finished 9-6 to continue the season long success.

Wondering which teams you should target with your best NFL bets in Week 7? Here are my favorite picks against the spread for every matchup. 

• My 2025 NFL betting stats: 52-39-2 (57.1% ATS)

NFL Week 7 Picks ATS

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Steelers vs. Bengals - Oct. 16, 8:15 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Steelers -5.5 (-115), Bengals +5.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Steelers -260, Bengals +210

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-110/-110)

The Steelers will meet Joe Flacco in his different third AFC North uniform in primetime on Thursday night. The team is 4-1 up to this point, and although they’ve faced an easy schedule, they’ve beaten all of the teams they should’ve. There are still many questions about their ability against quality teams, but they don’t have to worry about that this week.

Flacco did all that he could with less than one week of preparation, going 29/45 for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday. Despite his efforts, the Packers dominated, averaging 2.5 more yards per play and sinking the Bengals to 25th in defensive success rate and 30th in EPA allowed per play. All that said, Cincy covered the 14.5-point line by 5.5 points as Ja’Marr Chase looked like his all-world self.

The Bengals are terrible, everybody knows that. However, Flacco’s arrival, combined with Pittsburgh beating up on lesser teams, means that this could end up being a close call on the road in Ohio. I don’t think that the Steelers offense is what many want to believe it is, so I’ll back the home team.

Steelers vs. Bengals pick: Bengals +5.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Rams vs. Jaguars - Oct. 19, 9:30 A.M. ET 

• Spread: Rams -3 (-110), Jaguars +3 (-110)

• Moneyline: Rams -160, Jaguars +130

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110/-110)

The Rams gave their fans a real scare and mixed in questionable play-calling but found a way to comfortably beat the injured Ravens, 17-3. The best news coming out of Sunday’s game was Puka Nacua, who limped to the locker room with a foot injury, returned to action, although he’s expected to miss the next 1-2 weeks. LA has elite metrics on offense and defense but is about to take its first trip across the pond since 2019.

The Jags suffered defeat at the hands of the Seahawks, who were underdogs, on Sunday, 20-12. Trevor Lawrence played a solid game, but the running game was uncharacteristically held in check. The defense also had no answers for Sam Darnold despite ranking seventh in EPA per dropback for the year.

I like the Rams more than the Jaguars, but England has become a bit of a second home for the underdogs in recent years. I have also dubbed international games as “The great equalizer,” though what that means for a three-point spread, only time will tell. I was concerned by LA’s insistence on running the ball in unfavorable positions last week but still believe they can get the job done.

Rams vs. Jaguars pick: Rams -3 (-110) at Fanatics

Panthers vs. Jets - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Panthers +0.5 (-110), Jets -0.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Panthers -110, Jets -110

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

An old school pick’em! The Panthers and Bryce Young showed moxy on offense against the Cowboys’ abysmal defense on Sunday for their second win in as many weeks. Young went 17/25 for 199 yards, three TDs, and an INT, while Rico Dowdle’s 239 yards from scrimmage brought him to 473 over his last two outings. The defense, meanwhile, quietly ranks third in the league in success rate.

Just like a going-out-of-business sale at a department store, “Everything must go!” in New York. Justin Fields went 9/17 for 45 passing yards against the Broncos in London on Sunday, and yes, he played the entire game. NY’s defense played well, but Aaron Glenn showed a baffling inability to make high-leverage decisions or to figure out a way to get his offense moving in a game that was begging to be won.

The Panthers are much, much, much better than the Jets. The only source of hope for an upset here is Young handing the game away, or the Jets finding a way to draw inspiration from a loss, even when that seems totally unrealistic. The Panthers can get above .500 and go on a three-game winning streak with a win here, and I expect them to do just that.

Panthers vs. Jets pick: Panthers +0.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Saints vs. Bears - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Saints +5.5 (-110), Bears -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Saints +200, Bears -250

• Total: Over/under 47 (-110/-110)

Is the NFL world ready for one hard truth of the season? The Saints aren’t ALL that bad… Kellen Moore appears to be doing a nice job of coaching the team, and Spencer Rattler very quietly has numbers comparable to fellow draftmates Bo Nix and Caleb Williams. 

The Bears went on the road and got their revenge against the Commanders on Monday Night Football as their defense produced three turnovers. Caleb Williams’ inaccuracy was on display, but he also showed a better feel for the pocket, while D’Andre Swift had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season. The run defense also looked leaps and bounds better than it had at any point.

Aside from forcing interceptions at the highest rate in the league, the Bears’ secondary is at or near the bottom in most major categories. The Saints have an extra day of rest and a QB that isn’t getting any attention for what he’s doing. Be on the lookout for a Saints cover, and potentially, an outright win.

Saints vs. Bears pick: Saints +5.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Patriots vs. Titans - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Patriots -7 (-110), Titans +7 (-110)

• Moneyline: Patriots -325, Titans +250

• Total: Over/under 42.5 (-115/-105)

Although he’s not quite the NFL MVP, Drake Maye has played outstanding football this season. The Pats offense can get it done through the air and on the ground, and the defense held its last three opponents to a combined average of 17.3 points per game. They’re also on the road, where they went 3-0 against the spread thus far.

Everything about the Titans screams gross negligence. The play-calling and coaching are bad, the QB play is bad, the running game and offensive line are bad, and the defense doesn’t get stops. Nearly every simple and advanced metric speaks incredibly poorly of the Titans, who are going to be reliant on Cam Ward hero ball to scrape together victories as the season continues. 

The best news for the Titans is that they are going back home after a three-game road stint. Ward is being asked to do more with significantly less, and it resulted in him ranking 33rd in QBR with a score of 25. All that said, the Titans’ defense has shown mild improvement over the last few weeks, while the Pats’ hasn’t always managed to stay ahead on a down-to-down basis.

Patriots vs. Titans pick: Titans +7 (-110) at Fanatics

Dolphins vs. Browns - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Dolphins +2.5 (-115), Browns -2.5 (-105)

• Moneyline: Dolphins +115, Browns -140

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-110/-110)

Talk about a train wreck… Tua Tagovailoa called out his head coach and the overall lack of leadership in the Dolphins’ locker room on Sunday, while failing to acknowledge the part he played in the entire disaster. Miami showed spirit and covered a four-point line against the Chargers when their season appeared to be dead, but they also lost after allowing LA to move the ball downfield with virtually no time on the clock. Everything about this team stinks and is destined for an implosion.

Dillon Gabriel actually hasn’t been too bad, considering his environment. His main issue is that the offensive line can’t seem to block your local middle-school student, and the running game totally disappeared last weekend. The best part of this team is once again the defense, which looks like one of the 10 best in football.

Miami doesn’t have a unit as impressive as the Browns’ defense. Their defense is also 31st in EPA per play and success rate, and there’s a total lack of belief and desire from everyone in the locker room. Cleveland is at home and should force a couple of turnovers to power a low-scoring, defense-first victory.

Dolphins vs. Browns pick: Browns -2.5 (-105) at Fanatics

Raiders vs. Chiefs - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Raiders +12.5 (-110), Chiefs -12.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Raiders +550, Chiefs -800

• Total: Over/under 45.5 (-110-110)

The Raiders doubled their season win total by beating the Titans last week, 20-10. Geno Smith averaged just about 2.5 air yards per attempt in one of the most conservative games ever aired on television, but he still found a way to throw his tenth interception in six games. The Raiders’ D did good work and forced Cam Ward into committing three turnovers as they continued to play just outside of a top-10 level.

Just when you count them out, they return. The Chiefs handled the Lions at home on Sunday Night Football thanks to another shimmering performance by Patrick Mahomes, who looks like he’s slowly getting back to his best self. KC’s defense is still playing from behind on a down-to-down basis, but they look much better at 3-3 than they would have at 2-4.

The Chiefs simply don’t blow out many teams, and the Raiders played them tight in both meetings last year (with a much worse team). There seems to be an emphasis on ball security, and as long as Smith doesn’t throw at least two turnovers, I like the visitors to keep this within the 12.5-point line in a divisional showdown.

Raiders vs. Chiefs pick: Raiders +12.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Eagles vs. Vikings - Oct. 19, 1:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Eagles 1.5 (-110), Vikings +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Eagles -130, Vikings +110

• Total: Over/under 43.5 (-110/-110)

The Eagles have played below their standard for a while, and they finally got punished for it with back-to-back losses. The bye week was their catalyst last season, and they’ll be hoping that a long layover after playing on TNF will have the same effect this time around. On the plus side, Jalen Carter could be back on the field, and it’s hard to imagine an offense with this amount of talent continuing to be so miserable.

The Vikings are at home after a bye week following a win against the Browns in London. It’s unclear if J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz will be under center, but either way, both have their flaws. The biggest selling point for this squad is the excellent coaching that comes from Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores and the extra time they were able to spend building their game plan during the bye.

Philly has played embarrassing offensive football for any team, especially one with its roster. That said, whether there be internal friction, offensive line injuries, or individual mistakes, I don’t think they can continue to be so disappointing. Above all else, I trust their defense to disrupt whichever quarterback the Vikings trot onto the field.

Eagles vs. Vikings pick: Eagles -1.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Colts vs. Chargers - Oct. 19, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Colts +2 (-110), Chargers -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Colts +195, Chargers -125

• Total: Over/under 48.5 (-110/-110)

The Colts have dominated a slew of advanced metrics, especially those on offense. However, a schedule that consists of the Dolphins, Broncos, Titans, Rams (a loss), Raiders, and Cardinals is one that I have a hard time respecting. I’m still waiting to learn more about this team against high-caliber opponents, although I hold Shane Steichen in very high regard.

The Bolts didn’t cover and almost lost to the Dolphins last week, but Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Their zone-heavy defense has proven to be difficult for opposing QBs to navigate, meaning that opposing OC’s must be patient and committed to the run. Justin Herbert was expected to take more responsibility over the offense after Omarion Hampton’s injury, but sophomore Kimani Vidal took 18 carries for 124 yards last Sunday.

This is the time when the NFL world will get a better look at the Colts. Daniel Jones and company have been brilliant against weaker teams, while the Chargers have been more up and down with a varying schedule. I trust Jim Harbaugh’s coaching nearly, if not as much, as Steichen’s, and I’m more comfortable with Herbert and the Chargers’ defense.

Colts vs. Chargers pick: Chargers -2 (-110) at Fanatics

Giants vs. Broncos - Oct. 19, 4:05 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Giants +7 (-115), Broncos -7 (-105)

• Moneyline: Giants +260,  Broncos -350

• Total: Over/under 40.5 (-105/-115)

The Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo craze is sweeping the world, so allow me to issue a word of warning. We’re only two weeks removed from when the G-Men turned the ball over on five straight drives and lost to the Saints. Talented rookies will showcase their talent, but they will also make key mistakes as they sand off the rough edges and adjust to the top level.

The Broncos played a part in holding Justin Fields to 45 passing yards and taking nine sacks in London last week. They’re back home in front of their fans, but they get another opportunity to disrupt a young quarterback, this one who has more confidence. Bo Nix only completed three second-half passes last Sunday and hasn’t been good this year, yet the Broncos are still a couple of plays away from being undefeated.

The juice on these odds indicates the oddsmakers expect the Giants to cover the spread. I have a feeling that most NFL fans will bet on them as well, but I know what a defense as imposing as the Broncos’ can do to a young quarterback. Nix is also due to play better than he has, and the Giants' defense is 24th in success rate and 26th in EPA per play.

Giants vs. Broncos pick: Broncos -7 (-105) at Fanatics

Commanders vs. Cowboys - Oct. 19, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Commanders -1.5 (-110), Cowboys +1.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Commanders -125, Cowboys +105

• Total: Over/under 55 (-110/-110)

Win, loss, win, loss, win, loss… the Commands have a pattern and an inability to produce two impressive performances in a row. They had an uncharacteristically poor turnover game on Monday night and now have to hit the road for a divisional matchup on a short week. The lack of receiving weapons is glaring, but the biggest shortcomings are related to their pass defense, which allows the highest yards per completion in the NFL.

The Cowboys’ offense is humming, and Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. Like Washington, their defense is just terrible and is the reason they are below .500, having surrendered the second-most points per game in the league (30.7). They’ll need George Pickens to continue dominating in CeeDee Lamb’s absence to have a chance of winning games (although Lamb could be back for Sunday).

Both teams have flashed potential but have noticeable issues. The Commanders are the better team overall, but the Cowboys have an MVP-level punch under center on offense. I’ll take the visitors since their defense at least has the ability to win plays, whereas Dallas’ is last in success rate.

Commanders vs. Cowboys pick: Commanders -1.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Packers vs. Cardinals - Oct. 19, 4:25 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Packers -6.5 (-110), Cardinals +6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -340, Cardinals +265

• Total: Over/under 44.5 (-105/-115)

Green Bay’s offense started slow but got to 27 points in a win and failed cover against the Bengals last Sunday. Their methodical running game sets up the deep shots to their speedy receivers, and Jordan Love’s decision-making has improved (although he threw picks in two of the last three weeks). Their defense is 10th in points allowed per game (20.4), although it underperformed dramatically in the last few weeks.

The Cardinals could be without Kyler Murray again this week, although backup Jacoby Brissett went for 320 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in a 31-27 loss to the Colts last weekend. This Cardinals team is mediocre all over the field and could be without Marvin Harrison Jr. if he fails to clear concussion protocol. Jonathan Gannon’s defense is also playing at a bottom-10 level.

There’s something troubling about the Packers over the last couple of weeks. Whether they were content with their red-hot start, or teams have figured out how to attack them, their defense looks markedly worse, and they came out relatively slow on Sunday after having an entire bye week to construct their game plan. I’ll take the points on the large line.

Packers vs. Cardinals pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Falcons vs. 49ers - Oct. 19, 8:20 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Falcons +2 (-110), 49ers -2 (-110)

• Moneyline: Falcons +115, 49ers -140

• Total: Over/under 47.5 (-105/-115)

What a win for the Falcons on Monday Night! They put their bye week to good use and came out with a plan to knock off the Buffalo Bills, 24-14, behind 170 rushing and 68 receiving yards from Bijan Robinson. Drake London also had his best game with Michael Penix Jr. under center, exploding for 10 receptions, 158 yards, and a touchdown, while the defense intercepted Josh Allen twice and held him to 180 passing yards.

The 49ers are trying their best to do less with more, but even Kyle Shanahan’s genius can’t account for the plethora of injuries they are dealing with. Mac Jones also came back down to earth in last week’s 30-19 loss to the Buccaneers, throwing for 347 yards, but failing to get into the end zone and having two interceptions. Their defense is also down to 27th in EPA allowed per play since Week 4.

It’s very surprising to see the Falcons as underdogs here. Even if the Niners get players back from injuries, they don’t have the top-level talent like they did just a couple of years ago, while the Falcons’ offense was humming in their last two performances. The road dogs have a great chance to win outright.

Falcons vs. 49ers pick: Falcons +2 (-110) at Fanatics

Buccaneers vs. Lions - Oct. 20, 7:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110), Lions -5.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Buccaneers +200, Lions -250

• Total: Over/under 52.5 (-110/-110)

The Buccaneers finally got their first win of more than three points last week as they improved to 5-1 on the year. Baker Mayfield has been the best quarterback in football up to this point, but he’s going to have to overcome a plethora of injuries to his receivers, offensive linemen, and running back, Bucky Irving. There’s also pressure on a defense that is aggressive, but that gives up big plays.

The Lions came out hot but quickly learned they never had a chance of beating the 49ers on Sunday Night Football last weekend. That 17-point performance came after they’d scored at least 34 points in four straight weeks, and they’ll be eager to get back to their regular modus operandi on Sunday. The Bucs beat the Lions in Detroit in Week 2 last year, but the Lions haven’t lost consecutive games since the middle of 2022.

A healthy Buccaneers team would be much more competitive in this matchup. Despite the Lions’ defense having some issues against high-powered offenses, I struggle to see Tampa scoring enough points to keep up with the home team in light of their injuries. If you ask me, though, these are the two best teams in the NFC.

Buccaneers vs. Lions pick: Lions -5.5 (-110) at Fanatics

Texans vs. Seahawks - Oct. 20, 10:00 P.M. ET 

• Spread: Texans +3.5 (-120), Seahawks -3.5 (+100)

• Moneyline: Texans +150, Seahawks -180

• Total: Over/under 41 (-110/-110)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans finally found their stride on offense in their 44-10 win over the Ravens before their bye last week. Granted, that was against a terrible defense, and they are still only 25th in success rate for the year. Their defense is terrific against the pass for the second year running, but they’re only average against the run.

Sam Darnold has been outstanding thus far, while the Seahawks’ defense has been dominant (especially against the run). They’re only 27th in yards per rush attempt (3.7), which means that they’ll struggle to take advantage of Houston’s defensive weakness. Luckily, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been an offense by himself and currently leads the NFL in receiving yards.

I’d expect many bettors to gravitate toward the Seahawks, who were one of my favorite dark-horse teams entering the year. However, I like the Texans coming off of their bye week and having produced their best offensive showing of the year the last time they were on the field. Seattle’s inability to expose Houston’s deficiencies on the ground also works in their favor.

Texans vs. Seahawks pick: Texans +3.5 (-120) at Fanatics

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