Best Rams vs. Seahawks Prop Bets: Negative Regression Looms Large Over Matthew Stafford

• The Los Angeles Rams have a half game lead for first in the NFC West

• Matthew Stafford is listed as the betting favorite to win the MVP award

• The Seattle Seahawks defense ranks in the top-10 in Pass Rush Win Rate

Through the first fifteen weeks of the season, Matthew Stafford has built a strong case for winning the MVP award as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback continues to pick apart opposing secondaries on a weekly basis. Unfortunately for Stafford, negative regression looms large on Thursday night as he faces off against a Seattle Seahawks front seven who excels at collapsing the pocket.

Read our NFL MVP predictions and odds for more info.

Best Rams vs. Seahawks Prop Bets

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Matthew Stafford Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Matthew Stafford has been in a tier of his own as the betting favorite for the MVP award resides near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per Play and in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage. Stafford’s offensive line has played a major role in his success this year as the Rams' front five ranks top-10 in Pass Block Set Grade.

In an NFC West divisional rematch against the Seattle Seahawks, expect Stafford to fall hard back down to reality as he faces off against a front seven who ranks sixth overall in Pass Rush Win Rate. With the Seahawks consistently collapsing the pocket, Stafford will be forced to throw on the run at a higher rate which will drastically lessen his chances of connecting with his pass catchers.

Get more division info in our NFC West predictions.

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Kyren Williams Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Like Stafford, Kyren Williams has also been able to play at a high level as the Rams running back ranks in the top half of the board in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. With Stafford anchoring linebackers in coverage with his production under center, Williams is able to reach the second level of the defense once he gets past the line of scrimmage.

Heading into Thursday night, Williams will be forced to combat against a heavier amount of pressure in the trenches as he faces off against a Seahawks defensive line who ranks above league average in Run Defense Line Yards. With Williams being slowed down shortly after the snap, the Seahawks linebackers will have extra time to recognize the run and plug his running lanes before he reaches them.

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Sam Darnold Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

In their initial meeting, Sam Darnold was abysmal as the Seahawks quarterback finished the contest with four interceptions while failing to find the end zone. A stunning low level of play from Darnold as he rivals Stafford in Quarterback EPA per Play while ranking in the top-3 in Big Time Throw Percentage.

With the Rams' front seven falling down the board in Pass Rush Win Rate, Darnold will have more time in the pocket to let his plays develop which will reduce the amount of Havoc in his throws. For some more exposure, escalator bet Darnold’s passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When inside the 20, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a reliable pass catcher for Darnold to throw to as the betting favorite for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, leading the team in Red Zone Targets while converting 62.5% of his Receptions into touchdowns. With JSN getting more time in the open field to create space from the Rams coverage due to their lack of pressure, he will be able to consistently create a high-quality passing lane for Darnold to throw to.

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