With the Minnesota’s front line struggling to create high-quality shot attempts, the New York Rangers' defense will have a great opportunity to build on their momentum and hold the Wild under their team total. Shortly after their puck drop, we turn our attention towards Montreal and Buffalo as positive regression looms large over the Canadiens' Sam Montembeault who draws a favorable matchup against the Sabres' underwhelming offense.
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After failing to play at a competitive level last year, the New York Rangers' defense have rounded back into form as their back line ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of 2.93 Expected Goals Against per game. Their coverage has helped Igor Shesterkin get off to a hot start as the former Vezina Trophy winner is averaging just one Goal Against per game in five games played.
In Monday night’s contest against Minnesota, Shesterkin is in a favorable position to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a Wild offense who resides in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals For. Especially with their offense severely lacking the depth needed to stretch out the Rangers' back end as only three players average over 0.30 Expected Goals per game. Should the Wild team total drop down to 2.5, then pass on this market.
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Not only have the Wild front line struggled to score, but their defense has severely underwhelmed in coverage as their back line ranks equally as poor in Expected Goals Against. With their defense incapable of staying in front of the puck, Mika Zibanejad will be able to pressure their net at a high rate as the Rangers center averages 3.86 Goals Against per game. Place a wager on Zibanejad to score and take the over on his Shots on Goal prop as well at no higher than 3.5.
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Since the start of the regular season, the Seattle Kraken back line have been one of the best units in the league as they have held opposing offenses to just 2.54 Expected Goals per game. Their ability to lessen the quality of opposing shot attempts has helped Joey Daccord wall them off at a high rate as the Kraken goalie is averaging just 2.39 Goals Against per game and a .912 Save Percentage.
With the Philadelphia Flyers' offense grading out poorly in 5-on-5 Play, the Kraken’s suffocating coverage will keep the puck out of their crease for a majority of the contest. Factor in the Flyers' defense also ranking near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and Monday’s contest should turn into a defensive slugfest. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game total by placing smaller wagers on the alternate unders at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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With the Buffalo Sabres ranking 27th overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations, positive regression looms large over the Montreal Canadiens' Sam Montembeault who has struggled to find his footing this season. If Jakub Dobes gets the start in net instead, then increase the size of your wager as Canadiens' backup goalie currently leads Montembeault in Goals Against per game and in Save Percentage.
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