With the Columbus Blue Jackets severely underwhelming in coverage, the Washington Capitals will have a great opportunity to generate a high volume of Shots on Goal and clear the over on their team total. At the same time as their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Tampa Bay Lightning as their back line will be able to hold the Philadelphia Flyers off the scoreboard by consistently lessening the quality of their shot attempts.
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| Best NHL Prop Bets Today | Odds | Claim Your Bonus |
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After ranking near the top of the board in most offensive metrics last year, the Washington Capitals have been able to carry over their success into this season as the Stanley Cup contenders rank top-5 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Even with Alexander Ovechkin generating Shots on Goal at a far lower rate then he did in 2024-25, his linemates have been able to mask his loss of production as five Capitals average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
In a favorable matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets, expect the Capitals to light up the scoreboard as they face off against a back line who ranks 31st in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Jet Greaves playing at a very high level, negative regression looms large over the Blue Jackets goalie as the Capitals versatility will have him shifting across the ice which will open up wider shooting lanes on both sides of the net.
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Since the start of the regular season, Tom Wilson has played a key role in Washington’s high level of play on offense as the Capitals forward is averaging 0.45 Expected Goals and 2.27 Shots on Goal per game. With the Blue Jackets struggling to stay in front of the puck, Wilson will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal which increases his chances of scoring.
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After a slow start to the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning are starting to get into a groove as they have won their last three games in a row and are 7-3 in their last 10. Their resurgence on defense has helped spark their recent turnaround as the Lightning back line ranks top-10 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play while Andrei Vasilevskiy is averaging just 2.52 Goals Against per game.
Fortunately for the Lightning, their back line will have a great opportunity to build on their momentum as they face off against the Philadelphia Flyers who reside near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals From High Danger Shots. With the Lightning lessening the quality of their Shots on Goal with their suffocating coverage, expect Vasilevskiy to consistently wall them off and hold the Flyers under their team total.
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Even after re-tooling their offense in the offseason, the Kings have struggled to find their footing as only two players average more than three Shots on Goal per game while their offense ranks 26th in Total Goals For. In Monday night’s contest against Ottawa, the Kings low level of play on offense will be on full display as they face off against a Senators back line who ranks second in Expected Goals Against in All Situations with an average of just 2.89 Expected Goals Against per game.
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