With the Ottawa Senators front line firing on all cylinders, they are in a great position to score on Thursday night by taking advantage of the Florida Panthers who severely underwhelm in coverage. At the same time as their puck drop, we turn our attention towards the Philadelphia Flyers as they face off against the Detroit Red Wings who continue to stumble down the board in Expected Goals For.
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With the Columbus Blue Jackets two points back, the Ottawa Senators must take advantage of their favorable matchup against the Florida Panthers to hold on to their lead for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs.
After struggling to find their footing earlier in the year, the Ottawa Senators front line have been able to get into a groove, climbing up to the top half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their top two lines have helped turn the Senators around, fielding five players who average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.
Heading into Thursday night, expect the Senators to build on their momentum as they face off against the Florida Panthers who rank dead last in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots. With the reigning Stanley Cup champions struggling to defend the crease, the quality of the Senators shot attempts will improve which will help them score at a more consistent rate.
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The emergence of Brady Tkachuk has helped spark the Senators hot stretch of play, averaging 0.51 Expected Goals and 3.78 Shots on Goal per game. With the Panthers incapable of face guarding, Tkachuk will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal when he blitzes through their back line, increasing his chances of scoring.
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With the Philadelphia Flyers excelling in coverage, expect the Detroit Red Wings struggles on offense to continue to persist as they lack the versatility that is needed to pressure their net.
After going 3-6-1 in their last ten games, the Detroit Red Wings odds of making the playoffs have plummeted, sitting three points back from the Senators in the wildcard standings with just four games remaining. Their regression on offense brings in a higher amount of negative variance into their contests, ranking below league average in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play.
Unfortunately for the Red Wings, their struggles on offense will be on full display against the Philadelphia Flyers as they face off against a back line who currently ranks fourth in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with Dan Vlader walling off opposing Shots on Goal at a high rate, averaging just 2.40 Goals Against per game and a .907 Save Percentage.
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Expect the Los Angeles Kings Adrian Kempe to continue to light the lamp by exploiting a Vancouver Canucks back line who ranks near the bottom of the board in most defensive metrics.
Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, Adrian Kempe has still been able to play at a high level, averaging 0.34 Expected Goals per game. With the Vancouver Canucks ranking 32nd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the width of Kempe’s shooting lanes in front of the net will widen, making it easier for him to pressure the net for the full duration of the contest.
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