Arsenal are the Premier League leaders and they want to stay in top spot
Crystal Palace are a difficult team to play against under Oliver Glasner
Will Arsenal win this London derby, or can Palace spring a surprise?
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Go for under 2.5 goals when Arsenal host Crystal Palace. Mikel Arteta’s team are solid defensively and this looks set to be a low-scoring encounter at the Emirates Stadium.
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Arsenal are the team to beat in the Premier League right now. A 1-0 defeat by Liverpool at the end of August saw pessimism set in at the Emirates Stadium, and a 1-1 draw with Manchester City the following month did not entirely dispel the doubts. Since then, however, Arsenal have emerged as the title favorites.
Make no mistake: that is in large part because of Liverpool's collapse. The Reds have now lost three league games on the bounce, going down to Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Manchester United in quick succession. It is not yet a full-blown crisis at Anfield, but Liverpool have patently lost something.
Arsenal have taken full advantage of the champions’s woes. Victories over Newcastle United, West Ham United and Fulham have lifted them to the summit of the standings. In hindsight, that Newcastle game was a turning point. Arsenal trailed with six minutes left on the clock, then scored two late goals to win 2-1. They seized the moment and wrestled control of the game away from their opponents just when they needed it.
Arsenal’s strong start has been built on a solid backline. They have shipped only three goals in their first eight outings, the best record in the division, and have kept a joint-high five clean sheets. Mikel Arteta's men are extremely hard to play against. And if you do not concede goals, you are already halfway there.
“I don't like looking back, but if you ask me how I would describe the team, the players, they're tough and very, very willing,” Arteta said after the Fulham win, during which his side did not give up a single shot on target for a second consecutive match.
Crystal Palace more than played their part in one of the most entertaining Premier League fixtures of the season to date last weekend. Two-nil down to Bournemouth with an hour gone, Palace fought back to draw 3-3. Jean-Philippe Mateta scored a hat-trick, then spurned a golden opportunity to win the game deep into second-half stoppage time.
Previous Palace teams would have lost that game from 2-0 down. But this one is made of sterner stuff. In the end Palace were slightly disappointed to take one point rather than three. That itself is a mark of the progress they have made under Oliver Glasner.
Palace head into the weekend in eighth place. They could be even higher. Some of the underlying numbers make for remarkable reading. Palace are top of the expected goals table; in other words, they have created the best chances in the league overall. For expected goals difference, which also takes chances conceded into account, Palace rank joint-second - behind only Arsenal.
Glasner's side won the FA Cup last term, then lifted the Community Shield in August. They have lost just one of their last 22 matches in all competitions. In that run, they have avoided defeat by Liverpool (twice), Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. Palace are a serious team.
Is European qualification a realistic objective? Palace's participation in this season’s Conference League will surely take something out of them, especially as the squad is not as deep as Glasner would like. But on their day, Palace can go toe to toe with anyone. That is what makes them so dangerous.
“We played so well, our attacking was incredible. It was one of our best attacking performances,” Glasner said after the Bournemouth game. “Overall, I’m really pleased with this performance and I’m really proud of the team. I'm proud of how they kept their belief and how hard they worked to get this point.”
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As we have already established, Arsenal do not give much away. It is hard to land a shot on target against them at the moment, let alone score a goal. The Gunners are physically strong, tactically flexible and mentally resilient. Crystal Palace will have to be on their game to cause them problems.
Palace have conceded five goals in their last two league games, but that is uncharacteristic. For the most part they are a solid side. Only Arsenal can better that record of two goals conceded away from home. Palace tend to keep things tight at the back on their travels.
Both teams were involved in European action in midweek, so we could see some signs of fatigue on Sunday. The first 20 minutes or so may well consist of Arsenal and Palace feeling each other out. Clear-cut chances will likely be few and far between.
We expect that to continue for the majority of the match. This promises to be an intriguing encounter, but it will not necessarily be a high-scoring one. Under 2.5 goals feels like a smart selection here.
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Teams: Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
Date and Time: Sunday, October 26 at 9:00 AM ET
How to Watch: USA Network
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