In a rematch against Czechia, Canada’s defense will be able to build on their momentum as they face off against a front line who lacks the versatility that is needed to create gaps in their coverage. Later in the day, we turn our attention towards team USA as negative regression looms large over their offense with Sweden’s back line capable of face guarding their stars without needing support from their help side defenders.
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While Canada’s offense hogs the spotlight, their defense has quietly been just as productive. In a favorable matchup against Czechia, expect the Canadiens back line to smother their shot attempts which will help their goaltending wall them off at a consistent rate.
After being shut out in the first game of group play, history is poised to repeat itself in their rematch against Canada as Czechia’s international talent is incapable of stretching out their back line. With a defender expected to be near the vicinity of their shot attempts, the width of their shooting lanes will narrow which lowers their chances of scoring.
Canada’s goaltending has also surprisingly been one of the best units in the tournament, holding their three opponents to a total of three goals. With Jordan Binnington getting the latest start, Logan Thompson is projected to get the nod against Czechia. While Binnington has been able to round back into form in the Olympics, Thompson has been more reliable this season, averaging fewer Goals Against per game.
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Since the start of group play, Macklin Celebrini has been able to thrive as he heads into the knockout round averaging more than one goal per game. With Connor McDavid pulling Czechia’s back line away from him, Celebrini will be able to take advantage of the wider shooting lanes his teammate provides and generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the crease.
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Like Canada, USA’s front line was also able to light up the scoreboard throughout group play as they averaged over five goals per game. Unfortunately for the Americans, negative regression looms large against Sweden, leading to a decline in their total number of scoring opportunities.
Even with injuries lingering over USA’s roster, their front line has been able to match Canada’s output by generating Expected Goals at a very high rate. Their depth makes it easier for them to pressure the net for the full duration of their contests, setting a scoring pace too fast for their opponents to keep up with.
In a highly anticipated matchup against Sweden, expect USA’s offense to fall hard back down to reality as they face off against a back line who is capable of matching their speed to help stay in front of the puck. Especially with Filip Gustavsson projected to get the start in net as the Minnesota Wild goalie is averaging just 2.64 Goals Against per game and a .907 Save Percentage. If the USA team total drops down to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.
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If you did not place a wager on Canada to win the gold before the start of the Winter Olympics, then now may be your final chance as their odds will skyrocket if USA falls to Sweden. Even if the two do match up in the finals, Canada will be priced higher than they are now, potentially creating an arb opportunity to help secure a profit.
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