After barely squeaking past Czechia in overtime, expect Canada to continue to underwhelm as they face off against Finland who possess the speed that is needed to stretch out their back line. In the other semifinal matchup, USA’s offense has a great opportunity to round back into form against Slovakia by using their versatility to help open up wider shooting lanes in front of their net.
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Regression reared its ugly head over Canada in the second round of the knockout stage, nearly resulting in an early exit for the Canadiens. Unfortunately for the gold medal contenders, their struggles are poised to persist against Finland, leading to another close scoring affair.
After lighting up the scoreboard throughout group play, Canada fell hard back down to reality against Czechia, needing overtime to move on to the semifinals. While Canada’s front line thrived, their back line was incapable of giving them the production they needed to help limit the amount of variance in their contest.
Heading into the semifinals, expect Canada’s back line to continue to be pressed as they face off against Finland who possess multiple forwards that average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Even with Logan Thompson expected to get the start in net for Canada, Finland’s aggression will force the Washington Capitals goalie to pull away from the crease, widening the width of the gaps beside him.
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On the other side of the ice, Macklin Celebrini has been a steady source of production for Canada’s front line, averaging more than one goal scored per game. Connor McDavid has played a major role in Celebrini’s success as his presence helps pull defensive attention away from him. With Finland forced to shade their coverage towards McDavid, expect Celebrini to continue to take advantage of the extra space and generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal.
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After Quinn Hughes sealed the deal in overtime, USA is now just one win away from moving onto the finals. Only Slovakia stands in their way of competing for the gold medal, a team who lacks the talent that is needed to slow down USA’s offense.
Just when it looked like USA’s offense was starting to click, Sweden’s back line gave them fits by holding the Americans to just one total goal in regulation. An alarming performance from USA as their front line features plenty of stars who all generate Expected Goals at a very high rate.
In a favorable matchup against Slovakia, USA’s offense will be able to recapture the same success they had earlier in group play by exploiting their back line’s underwhelming coverage. Especially with Slovakia’s goaltending relying on collegiate and international talent as their slower shifts across the crease will increase the quality of USA’s Shots on Goal. For some more exposure, escalator bet USA’s team total by placing smaller wagers on their alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Since the start of the regular season, Brady Tkachuk has been one of the more aggressive forwards in the league as the Ottawa Senators captain is averaging 0.50 Expected Goals and 3.89 Shots on Goal per game. With Slovakia’s back line incapable of faceguarding Tkachuk, he will be able to capitalize on the single coverage he receives and pressure the net at a higher rate which increases his chances of scoring.
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