Best Horse Racing Bets Today | Churchill Downs

Stephen Foster Preview Day proves that there is excellent racing at Churchill Downs after the first Saturday in May. Led by a strong field of older males in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes, the afternoon card on Saturday includes six solid stakes races. In the 9-furlong Blame, you could easily make a case for any one of the top six, including last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. Among his top opposition in the prep for the $1 million Stephen Foster will be Most Wanted, Post Time, Banishing, Antiquarian, and Most Wanted.

Other highlights of a big day under the famed twin spires include four additional graded stakes races on the turf and the dirt. The $275,000 Arlington Stakes is headlined by the consistent pair of Mercante and Brilliant Bert among a field of nine older turf males. Also, Where’s My Ring is the morning line choice in the Shawnee Stakes for older dirt females, while Classic Q rates top billing in the Regret Stakes for turf fillies.  Without further ado, let's get to my analysis, top picks, and suggested wagers for an excellent card of racing from Churchill Downs.

Head over to TwinSpires to wager on our selection of horse racing bets. New users at TwinSpire can claim a $200 Sign-Up Bonus, today!

Race #8 Shawnee Stakes (Grade 3) $275,000 1 1/16 Miles Dirt- 4:23pm EST

A romping allowance winner two starts back at Oaklawn Park, Where’s My Ring will be in search of her second career graded stakes win in Saturday’s wide open edition of the Grade 3 Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs.

A 4-year-old daughter of Twirling Candy, she was a decisive winner of the Gazelle Stakes (G3) last year in New York, but followed that up with a pair of disappointing efforts behind the champion Thorpedo Anna in Grade 1 affairs. A sharp performance two starts back earned her another shot against that rival last out in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, but she could do no better than third. This will be her first start for her new trainer Peter Miller.

Second choice on the morning line is Gin Gin, and like the morning line favorite, she has had her share of ups and downs in her career. A stakes winner at Aqueduct early in her career, the Hightail filly struggled after that victory. Given some time off, she failed in her first race back before pulling off a major upset in winning Keeneland’s Doubledogdare Stakes (G3) for fun last month. A similar effort here would make her tough to beat.

A number of the other fillies and mares in the 9-horse field are in with a real chance on Saturday. One with good value at 10/1 on the morning line is Corningstone. An Indiana-bred, she has won eight times in her career and has never been worse than second in four starts at Churchill Downs. She won two straight stakes for trainer Kenny McPeek over the winter before disappointing last time. I think she can bounce back at nice odds and will be my top upset pick in the Shawnee.

My Play

• $5 Daily Double Part Wheel - Corningstone, Where’s My Ring, and Gin Gin with Brilliant Berti and Call Protection = $30

Visit TwinSpires and Get $200 Sign-Up Bonus

Race #9 Arlington Stakes (Grade 3) $275,000 1 1/16 Miles Turf- 4:55pm EST

A strong second in Grade 1 company most recently, Mercante has been made a lukewarm morning line choice against eight other older turf runners in the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

After earning his first career graded stakes victory at Turfway Park in March, Mercante still did not get much respect in the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. On the pace much of the way, he finished a game second at odds of 13/1. Off his solid recent form, he cannot be discounted here.

If Mercante is not the favorite on Saturday, the honor should go to Brilliant Berti. A late-running son of Noble Mission, he has won 6-of-9 career starts for trainer Cherie DeVaux, including four stakes wins. On the Churchill Downs turf course, he is perfect in four tries. Despite being the second choice on the morning line, he looks like the one to beat to me.

Like the Shawnee, this is another deep race with a number of horses who could step up. Among them is the lightly raced Call Protection. He really looks to be rounding into top form for dangerous trainer Mike Maker. He has won two of three on turf and is coming in off a very nice win over the course. Still, I can’t overlook the class of Brilliant Berti, and he will be my top pick.

My Plays

• $5 Exacta Part Wheel - Brilliant Berti over Call Protection, Mercante, Cameo Performance, and Lagynos = $20

• $5 Daily Double Part Wheel - Brilliant Berti, Call Protection, Mercante, Cameo Performance, and Lagynos with Post Time = $25

Claim $200 Sign-Up Offer at TwinSpires

Race #10 Blame Stakes (Grade 3) $275,000 1 1/8 Miles Dirt- 5:27pm EST

In search of his first victory since the 2024 Kentucky Derby, Mystik Dan returns to  Churchill Downs as the headliner in a strong field of ten older males in Saturday’s Grade 3 Blame Stakes.

Second in the Preakness Stakes after winning the Kentucky Derby last season, the son of Goldencents went off form during a trio of defeats after that. Given some time off for the second time since running in all three legs of the 2024 Triple Crown, he looked like his old self last time when just missing to Saudi Crown four weeks ago at Oaklawn Park.

Among his many serious challengers in the 9-furlong Blame will be the Brad Cox-trained Most Wanted. Never worse than second in seven career starts, the graded stakes winner has twice finished second in strong races at Churchill Downs in his last three starts. Last time out he was second behind the champion Fierceness in the Alysheba Stakes (G2).

Another one with a big chance in the Blame is the Maryland-bred Post Time. The experienced son of Frosted loves to win and returned to the races with an impressive allowance victory at Laurel Park early this month. Second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) late last year, he should be sitting on a big 5-year-old season. With plenty of speed in here to set up his late rally, I will go with Post Time as my top pick.

My Plays 

• $10 Exacta Box - Post Time and Most Wanted = $20

• $5 Exacta Box - Post Time and Banishing = $10

• $5 Exacta Box - Post Time and Mystik Dan = $10

Register at TwinSpires for $200 Bonus

Race #11 Regret Stakes (Grade 3) $275,000 1 1/8 Miles Turf- 5:58pm EST

In her first start over the Churchill Downs turf course, Classic Q looked like a filly ready to become a graded stakes winner. She will get the chance as the morning line choice against ten other sophomore turf fillies in the Grade 3 Regret Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Mark Casse is loaded with good young turf fillies this season and Classic Q looks like another after romping home a big winner in a fast allowance race late last month. Before that, the daughter of Classic Empire had been competitive in a pair of stakes races at Gulfstream Park. 

Lush Lips is another who should draw serious attention and could be the favorite here. The English-bred filly has knocked heads with the top young turf filly in the land, finishing second to Nitrogen in her last two starts. Having won nicely in her two starts before that, she should appreciate not seeing Nitrogen in the field this time around.

If any filly can come with a strong late run in the 9-furlong Regret, Fionn looks to be the one. Trained by Brad Cox, she had a three-race winning streak snapped last time when third behind Nitrogen in the Appalachian Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. She is a consistent late runner and I like her chances while getting a little more distance in this one. Fionn is my top pick.

My Plays

• $10 Exacta Box - Fionn and Lush Lips = $20

• $10 Exacta Box - Fionn and Classic Q = $20

Grab $200 Sign-Up Bonus at TwinSpires