Met Mile Predictions, Contenders, Best Bets (Belmont Park)

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Met Mile at Belmont Park! Odds taken from TwinSpires.

Met Mile Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$20 Win & Place – Happy Saver = $40

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top upset pick Happy Saver (8/1)

Short on depth but not quality, the unbeaten and highly regarded Flightline headlines a field of five older males set for Saturday’s $1 million Met Mile at Belmont Park.

A 4-year-old son of Tapit, Flightline has won his first three career starts in fantastic fashion, winning by an average margin of victory of better than 12 lengths.

Most recently, the John Sadler-trained scored an emphatic victory in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes going 7 furlongs at Santa Anita back on December 26 by 11 ½-lengths.

His top rival in the Grade 1 Met Mile is expected to be Speaker’s Corner, who comes into the big test on an impressive winning streak of his own.

Trained by Bill Mott, the son of Street Sense has won all three of his starts this year in convincing style. Last out he blitzed his Grade 1 opposition in the Carter at Aqueduct by 4 ½-lengths.

Two others in the Met Mile are Grade 1 winners in Aloha West and Happy Saver.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Aloha West came with a late rush two starts back to get up on the wire in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar last November.

Happy Saver’s lone Grade 1 win came back in 2020 when he scored in the Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 3-year-old for trainer Todd Pletcher.

More recently he finished second in the Grade 1 Clark to close out last year, and was runner up in his seasonal debut in last month’s Grade 2 Alysheba.

Met Mile Predictions and Race Analysis

Flightline

I’m not sure I can honestly remember a horse being more impressive in three career starts than this son of Tapit. To say he has run very fast and has made it look very easy would be an understatement.

He could well be the most talented American horse we’ve seen in some time and if he can bring his best on Saturday, he is a very likely winner of the prestigious Met Mile. Having said that, his odds will be prohibitively low as he makes his first start of the year, and away from the West Coast.

Perhaps if he shows any sign of weakness here, the early pressure applied by the talented Speaker’s Corner could cause an upset. Still, I am not counting on a Flightline defeat. He is clearly the one to beat.

Speaker’s Corner

As good as this one has looked in rolling to three straight graded stakes victories this season, I suspect he is poised to face a totally different type of competition in Flightline than he has ever seen before.

Given his early speed, it will be up to him to go after the favorite early, and as fast he is, that promises to be a very difficult task. If for whatever reason, the big favorite falters early, then this one will have a huge chance to run the rest off their feet, but that scenario seems less than likely.

The son of Street Sense has clearly developed into a serious talent, but I just don’t think race sets up very well for him.

Aloha West

A winner of five of his ten career starts, this late-running sprinter has proven to be a consistent and classy runner for trainer Wayne Catalano. While his Breeders’ Cup Sprint victory last fall was a big one, Saturday’s test is even tougher.

Like Flightline, he’s never been beyond 7 furlongs, so that is a question as he tries to rally against top horses. Although well beaten in his return race, the third-place finish behind Jackie’s Warrior was not bad and should tighten him up for his second race of the year.

If Speaker’s Corner and Flightline battle too fast early, he could come running to pick up the pieces, but of the horses coming from off the pace, I only like him second best.

Happy Saver

After a solid second behind Olympiad in the Grade 2 Alysheba, last month at Churchill Downs, this son of Super Saver should be ready to run his best on Saturday. A Grade 1 winner who has never turned in poor performance, he also has won three of four career starts at Belmont.

While the three horses lower than him on the morning line have all turned in their best performances in races shorter than a mile, this once is well proven at longer distances. With the likely pace scenario of the top two speeding out there, that should help him as he finishes strongly.

Flightline is the one to beat, but this classy horse offers solid value, and I am looking for him to run a very good race. He is the value play here.

Informative

It’s rare to see a horse listed at 50/1 in a five-horse field, but I believe in the case of this son of Bodemeister, the lack of confidence is warranted.

Although he was a Grade 3 winner at the one-mile distance at odds of 79/1 a year ago, he has failed to run back to that performance in seven subsequent starts. Now he faces his toughest test yet and looks overmatched. I find him hard to recommend.

How to Watch the Met Mile