Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain Champions League Prediction, Odds & Picks

Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain

  • Bayern Munich are looking to defend the Champions League trophy they won last year
  • Paris Saint-Germain will be keen to avenge their defeat in the 2020 final
  • This should be an entertaining two-legged tie with attacks coming out on top

Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain Odds

Total goalsOdds
Over 3.5+143
Under 3.5-180

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Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain Predictions and Picks

First legs are often cagey affairs at this stage of the competition, but there is reason to believe that attacks will win out against defenses when Bayern Munich takes on Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.


 Over 3.5 option here (+143)

How to Watch Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain

Bayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain
WhatBayern Munich vs Paris Saint-Germain
WhereAllianz Arena, Munich, Germany
WhenWednesday, 7 April 2021, 15.00 PM EDT
How to watchParamount+

Last season’s Champions League final was a tight affair, with Bayern Munich ultimately edging out Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in Lisbon. The match, in truth, could have gone either way, and PSG were entitled to feel disappointed that their performance did not produce a positive result. Their wait for a maiden Champions League triumph goes on.

Neither PSG nor Bayern will have been pleased with this draw, but to be the best you have to beat the best. Both teams are better going forward than they are at the back, and we could be in store for a highly entertaining encounter at the Allianz Arena. With odds of +143 available, back more than 3.5 goals in Wednesday’s first leg.

Bayern Munich Are a Poorer Team Without Robert Lewandowski

The big news ahead of Wednesday’s first leg is the absence of Robert Lewandowski, who has been ruled out of action for four weeks through injury. Mauricio Pochettino insisted that Bayern are still capable of winning without their talisman, referencing his Harry Kane-less Tottenham team that overcame Manchester City in this competition in 2019. Of course, Pochettino is right: Bayern can win without Lewandowski. But their task has been made much harder without him.

Lewandowski has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He has scored a scarcely believable 35 goals in 25 Bundesliga games and has found the back of the net five times in six European outings. The Poland international is Bayern’s best player, and his presence up front means his team always has a chance. Lewandowski is the type of striker who can turn a tie on its head with one moment of brilliance.

Yet Pochettino is right to stress that Bayern have other attacking weapons. At least three of Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane, Thomas Muller, and Kingsley Coman will start this week, and each forward is a world-class performer on his day.

Moreover, it would be wrong to expect Bayern to take a more defensive approach in Lewandowski’s absence. Hansi Flick is a manager who encourages proactivity and that will not change regardless of who is playing up top. Counterintuitively, Bayern might even be more attacking than usual, since they know they cannot rely on Lewandowski to produce something out of nothing.

PSG Are Inconsistent but Will Raise Their Game for This Tie

PSG did not have the ideal preparation for this match. On Saturday, they were beaten 1-0 at home by Lille and are now three points adrift of the top spot in Ligue 1. It would be unthinkable for PSG to miss out on a place in the top three (fourth spot in France’s top-flight does not bring Champions League qualification), but Monaco and Lyon are hot on the heels of Pochettino’s side as the finish line comes into sight.

The only way PSG could make up for failing to win the Ligue 1 title would be by taking the Champions League trophy home to Paris. It will be a tough ask, with Manchester City or Borussia Dortmund awaiting the winners of this tie. Pochettino and his players will have to do things the hard way if they are to make PSG champions of Europe.

Yet while the French giants have been undermined by inconsistency in Ligue 1 this season, that should not really affect their chances in the Champions League. On their day, PSG are a formidable team – they proved as much in a 4-1 demolition of Barcelona in the first leg of their last-16 clash. A failure to raise their game for run-of-the-mill league fixtures is not going to be a problem when they take on the likes of Bayern in this competition.

A team with Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, and Moise Kean upfront will always have a chance against any team on the planet. The loss of Marco Verratti, who has tested positive for COVID-19, is a huge blow, though, with Pochettino likely to be racking his brains for a plan B in midfield.

Two Attack-Minded Teams Will Aim to Strike a Decisive Blow

It could be argued that the key to the game is whether or not PSG can exploit Bayern’s high defensive line. They were not able to do so as much as they would have liked in last season’s Champions League final, although they still created several good chances on that occasion. Kylian Mbappe and Neymar possess pace in abundance, and some well-timed runs could see them played through one-on-one with Manuel Neuer.

At the other end, there are question marks over PSG’s backline. Pochettino’s team have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three Ligue 1 encounters, and they managed just two in six games in the group stage of this competition, before conceding in both legs against Barcelona in the round of 16.

All of which suggests goals could be on the cards at the Allianz Arena. Both teams will be keen to strike a decisive blow in the first leg, and neither manager is cautious by trade. Bayern might be without Lewandowski, but they still have plenty of quality in the final third. PSG do too, so we could be in store for an entertaining affair.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]