The odds for England vs Germany are supplied by the Caesars sportsbook
Some showpiece events can be cagey but this tournament has been full of goals, and there is no reason to expect that to change when two fantastic attacking teams go head-to-head at Wembley Stadium.
Back over 2.5 goals (+100) in the final of the Women’s Euro 2022
Pick made on 07/27/2022 at 07:40 PM EST
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Even the most ardent England fan would admit that the host nation was second best for large chunks of the quarter-final against Spain. The pre-tournament favorites were much more assured and confident in possession. England, by contrast, struggled to keep hold of the ball and looked nervous whenever they had it. The Lionesses had encountered few difficulties in the group phase, but their first meeting with a fellow powerhouse was in genuine danger of ending in defeat.
Yet England held their nerve, dug deep and turned the match on its head. Trailing 1-0 to an Esther Gonzalez goal, Ella Toone forced extra time by scoring an equalizer in the 84th minute, then a stunning strike from Georgia Stanway won the match for the hosts in the first period of the additional half-hour. Spain were deflated and England held onto their lead for the remainder of the match.
Yet given how they had performed throughout the 120 minutes against Spain, there was some concern that England might fail to deal with the pressure of Tuesday’s semi-final. Not so. Sarina Wiegman’s women were fantastic from the very first whistle against Sweden, one of the most balanced teams at the Women’s Euro 2022. They played with confidence, intensity and speed, and their opponents struggled to keep up with them.
A 4-0 victory was not an unfair scoreline. Alessio Russo’s wonderful goal, an outrageous backheel which nutmegged the Sweden goalkeeper, was shared widely on social media, but the moment did not happen in isolation. Rather, a goal of such skill and imagination was in keeping with England’s all-round performance, which saw them create many more opportunities than they did against Spain. After such a dominant display, the Lionesses are starting to feel like it is their destiny to win this competition.
Germany’s semi-final was a much tighter affair, but their showing was no less impressive than England’s – albeit in a different way. Their opponents, France, are perhaps the most thrilling team in the women’s game right now. They set the tone for their campaign with a 5-1 thrashing of Italy on matchday one in which all of their goals came in the first half. Even without star striker Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who was injured in their second match, France pack a considerable punch in attack.
Les Bleues certainly had their moments in Milton Keynes on Wednesday. Germany scored first through Alexandra Popp, but France equalized just before half-time. It was the first goal that the Nationalelf had conceded all tournament, with four consecutive clean sheets up to that point.
Germany responded well to that rare setback and controlled possession after the break, before Popp struck in the 74th minute to win the match with her sixth goal of the competition (she is level with Beth Mead in the race for the Golden Boot, which will also be decided on Sunday). France could be proud of their efforts, and they produced some fine soccer at times, but Germany played with authority and poise, while striking the right balance between intensity and calmness.
The Germans have won this competition eight times already; the rest of the continent has managed four triumphs put together. It is true that many of the players in Martina Voss-Tecklenburg’s squad were not involved in those previous successes, the most recent of which was in 2013, but the national team’s collective experience will help them to handle the occasion this weekend.
It is hard to predict the outcome of this match. England have home advantage and will be roared on by the vast majority of fans inside Wembley Stadium, but in pure soccer terms, Germany are their equal. They also have more experience of participating in major finals and are unlikely to fall to the occasion, although even the Nationalelf might struggle to deal with England if they can replicate their Sweden showing here.
This one really could go either way, and it would not be a surprise to see either team lifting the trophy on Sunday. For that reason, we recommend looking elsewhere in the betting stakes. Both teams to score is one option, but the value is not quite as attractive as that for over 2.5 goals.
Finals are often tight, cagey encounters. That makes sense: the higher the stakes, the less likely a team is to take risks. At the final of the men’s European Championship last summer, England took an early lead against Italy but failed to capitalize on it, preferring to protect their advantage rather than increase it. That ultimately proved costly as the Azzurri fought back and triumphed on penalties.
England’s women will not make the same mistake. Both they and Germany are attack-minded teams and neither will be content to play on the back foot here. Go for over 2.5 goals in Sunday’s final.
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|Teams||England vs Germany|
|Location||Wembley Stadium, London, England|
|Time||Sunday, 31 July 2022, 12.00PM EST|
|How to watch||ESPN, fuboTV|
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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]More info on Greg Lea
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