Porto vs Chelsea Champions League Prediction, Odds & Picks

Porto vs Chelsea

  • Porto pulled off an upset by eliminating Juventus in the round of 16
  • Chelsea have made huge strides since Thomas Tuchel took charge
  • There will not be much between these two sides and it could finish level

Porto vs Chelsea Odds


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Porto vs Chelsea Predictions and Picks

Sure, it might not be as fun to back the draw ahead of either team, but Porto and Chelsea will both focus on keeping things tight in the first leg and that could result in a stalemate.


Tie (+250)

How to Watch Porto vs Chelsea

Porto vs Chelsea
WhatPorto vs Chelsea
WhereEstadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, Seville,
WhenWednesday, 7 April 2021, 3 PM EDT
How to watchParamount+

Porto and Chelsea will both have been pleased when the draw for the quarter-finals of the Champions League was made last month. Of course, neither team will be expecting a straightforward contest over two legs, but it is fair to say that both clubs will have been delighted to avoid Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, and Manchester City – not just in the last eight but also in the last four, should they make it that far.

Before then, we can expect Porto and Chelsea to play out a tight two-legged contest. The Premier League side’s superior quality will probably make the difference after 180 (or perhaps even 210) minutes, but back a tie in Wednesday’s first fixture.

Tuchel Will Want to Get Back to Basics After Shock Defeat

No one saw that coming. On Saturday, Chelsea were supposed to ease themselves back into action after the international break with a straightforward game against a West Brom team doomed to relegation. Instead, they suffered an embarrassing 5-2 defeat that leaves them needing to respond against Porto. This was far from the ideal preparation for a high-stakes Champions League tie.

Part of the reason it came as such a surprise is that Chelsea have been defensively solid since Tuchel took the reins in January. They conceded more goals to West Brom on Saturday than in any of their manager’s previous 14 games combined. That suggests the weekend’s thrashing – which came against 10 men following Thiago Silva’s first-half dismissal – was the exception rather than the norm.

Even so, the nature of the defeat will have spooked Tuchel a little, and that may influence the way he approaches this game. The German would probably settle for a tie in Portugal, before attempting to deliver a decisive blow in the return game at Stamford Bridge next week.

He seemed to adopt a similar game plan against Atletico Madrid in the last round, although Chelsea’s opponents were so poor on the night that the Blues were able to register a 1-0 first-leg victory. Tuchel would no doubt be delighted with the same outcome here, but he would presumably be happy enough if the scores finished level.

Porto Knocked Out Juventus and Are Eyeing Another Upset

Given their performance in the last round and the fact they are playing at home, Porto should perhaps be priced at less than +410 to win the first leg. They will certainly have a good chance of emerging triumphant if they produce a performance similar to that which put Juventus to the sword at the Estadio do Dragao last month. Porto were the better team from start to finish and arguably deserved more than the 2-1 win they managed in the first leg of their last-16 clash.

Federico Chiesa’s late goal in that match seemed to swing the pendulum back in Juventus’ favor, but Porto were superb in the return fixture. A 3-2 defeat was enough for them to advance to the quarter-finals on away goals, despite the fact that they had to play with 10 men for more than an hour after the sending-off of Mehdi Taremi, who is suspended for Wednesday’s game.

Porto progressed from their group alongside Manchester City with a minimum of fuss, and are currently on a 19-game unbeaten run in the Primeira Liga. It would be a mistake for Chelsea to underestimate Sergio Conceicao’s side, which contains a fine blend of youth and experience. Porto are not just here to make up the numbers, and a failure to take them seriously would likely result in Chelsea’s elimination.

This Quarter-Final Is Unlikely to Be Decided After 90 Minutes

Porto’s victory over Juventus came after extra time in the second leg, and it would not be a surprise if this quarter-final was settled at a similarly late stage of proceedings. Chelsea would probably win more often if these two sides played 100 games against each other, but there is not much to choose between them and that could be borne out at the Estadio do Dragao on Wednesday.

Chelsea are a proactive team under Tuchel, and we can expect them to dominate possession here. They have often used control of the ball as a defensive rather than attacking strategy, though, so having the lion’s share of possession does not necessarily mean Chelsea will create an abundance of chances. Porto, for their part, will be content to sit back in an organized defensive shape, before looking to spring forward on the counter-attack when the opportunity presents itself.

This is not a match in which either team will take unnecessary risks, particularly with a second leg still to come. Chelsea’s confidence may be slightly dented after Saturday’s shock defeat by West Brom, and that may translate to a more cautious performance in the opening stages. Porto, too, will not feel pressured to strike an early blow, particularly as their last-16 tie with Juventus went down to the wire.

With little to choose between Porto and Chelsea, the odds on a tie in this first leg are attractive. Bettors should take advantage.

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]