Real Madrid vs Liverpool Champions League Prediction, Odds & Picks

Real Madrid vs Liverpool

  • Real Madrid are the most successful team in the history of the Champions League
  • Liverpool are looking to win the tournament for the second time in three years
  • Jurgen Klopp’s side have the ability to pick Real Madrid off in transition

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Odds

Total GoalsOdds
Over 2.5-124
Under 2.5+100

Odds from DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or check out more offers and promo codes for the best online sportsbooks.

Real Madrid vs Liverpool Predictions and Picks

Neither side will want to be out of the tie after 90 minutes, and both will avoid unnecessary risks given the way their seasons have unfolded up to now.


Under 2.5 Goals (+100)

How to Watch Real Madrid vs Liverpool

Real Madrid vs Liverpool
WhatReal Madrid vs Liverpool
WhereEstadio Alfredo Di Stefano, Spain, Madrid
WhenTuesday, 6 April 2021, 15.00 PM EDT
How to watchParamount+

All is not lost for Real Madrid and Liverpool in their respective domestic campaigns, but it is also true that things have not really gone to plan for either club this season. Madrid trail both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in the La Liga title race, while Liverpool are down in fifth place in the Premier League and are far from guaranteed a Champions League qualification spot for 2021/22.

This tournament has therefore taken on even greater importance for two of the four most successful sides in its history. This first leg is likely to be cagey, even if Liverpool’s attack seemed to be getting back to its best at the weekend, so under 2.5 goals is the way to go on Tuesday.

Liverpool Looked Sharp Again in Defeat of Arsenal on Saturday

After a 0-0 draw with Manchester United in the middle of January, Liverpool were three points adrift of the top spot in the Premier League. To say things have gone badly since then is an understatement. Liverpool have lost seven of their last 12 top-flight outings and dropped as low as eighth in the table during that run. Manchester City’s victory over Leicester City on Saturday confirmed that the Reds can no longer retain their title, although their dire form meant they had been eliminated from the race long ago.

However, Saturday was a good day overall for Jurgen Klopp’s side. Just after City had knocked them out of the championship conversation once and for all, Liverpool delivered a dominant display against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. A 3-0 win was the least they deserved. Even before Diogo Jota opened the scoring in the 64th minute, Liverpool were by far the better team.

The recent international break looks to have done them good. The zip in their passing was back, and their pressing was much sharper too. Arsenal could not get out of their own half for long periods, nor could they keep possession for more than a few seconds. Dominating Real Madrid will be much tougher; indeed, it might not be possible. But Klopp will be a lot more confident of his side’s chances in this quarter-final after Saturday’s superb showing in north London.

This Is Not a Vintage Real Madrid Side but Don’t Write Them Off

No one would argue that the current Real Madrid team is as strong as the one that won three Champions Leagues in a row between 2016 and 2018. Cristiano Ronaldo, for one, has departed, and while Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, and Sergio Ramos remain, none are quite as good as they once were. Zinedine Zidane’s side were knocked out of the Champions League at the last-16 stage last term, and few mourned their absence.

Yet Madrid’s experience and know-how in this competition still count for something. In tight two-legged ties, those factors could help them get over the line. Ramos has been ruled out of both legs against Liverpool through injury, but the members of Madrid’s starting XI on Tuesday will still hold multiple Champions League winners’ medals.

At the same time, Liverpool will not fear a team that has hardly set La Liga alight this term. Madrid are still in the title race, and they have won their last three domestic matches on the bounce, but they have seldom blown teams away. In 29 La Liga games in 2020/21, Madrid have won by more than a two-goal margin on just two occasions. They have scored only 51 goals in that time, giving them an average of 1.7 per match. Real Madrid’s name often strikes fear into the hearts of opponents, but Liverpool have no particular reason to be scared of this iteration.

Both Teams Will Feel Each Other Out in Tuesday’s First Leg

It would not a surprise if this tie was still on a knife-edge going into the final 20 minutes of the second leg. This first meeting will be particularly tense. Zidane tends towards caution in such circumstances, and he will be keen to deny Liverpool an away goal that could ultimately make all the difference. Klopp will encourage a more proactive approach, and he may be wary of Liverpool’s dreadful recent record at Anfield, but the German will not want to leave Madrid too much space on the counter-attack either.

The game could open up if there is an early goal, but even that is unlikely to drastically change the calculations of both managers. And despite Saturday’s convincing triumph over Arsenal, Klopp will be aware that the confidence of his players remains fragile, and a bad start in Madrid could easily see things unravel. For that reason, he would probably be content with a solid rather than spectacular start to the match.

All things considered, goals could be in short supply on Tuesday. Madrid are not a particularly free-scoring side, and while Liverpool possesses fantastic firepower on their day, they will not flood forward at every opportunity with a second leg still to play. Given the evidence, DraftKings Sportsbook odds of +100 on fewer than 2.5 goals look like excellent value.

Bet on Under 2.5 Goals, Here!

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Greg Lea

Expert on Soccer

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.

Email: [email protected]