Best MLB Bets Today: Betting on the Braves' New Ace

The Braves haven’t turned many heads in 2025, but they seem to have found a new ace in AJ Smith-Shawver. The 22-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in the NL in his rookie campaign, and we expect that to continue tonight. Below, we’ll share why we like the Braves to win tonight and two other bets we are locking in.

The odds we use are taken from Caesars Sportsbook. If you’d like to give Caesars a try, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens” offer.

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (12:15 PM EST)

PICK: Braves -1.5 (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Braves have disappointed to start 2025, but have found a silver lining in rookie starter AJ Smith-Shawver (2-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP). The 22-year-old has been fantastic for Atlanta and has been especially sharp at home, where he owns a 2.13 ERA and .182 OBA. His numbers are boosted by facing some of the league’s worst offenses, and he’ll be up against another tonight.

The Nationals have been getting crushed in May, dampening hopes for a surprising Wild Card berth. While CJ Abrams has been hot at the plate, the five other starters are batting .200 or below over the last week. As a result, Washington hasn’t been scoring runs, and that won’t change against Smith-Shawver now. 

Washington will also be at a disadvantage on the mound with Trevor Williams (2-4, 5.88 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). The veteran has been unable to recapture his form from last season, where he was enjoying the best year of his career until an injury knocked him out for three months.

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Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (12:40 PM EST)

PICK: Under 9 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

Betting on the White Sox to put up a low total has been a safe choice in 2025. The team owns the league’s worst OPS (.613), thanks to Andrew Vaughn, Michael Taylor, and Luis Robert Jr hitting below the Mendoza line. With the team already in the cellar of the AL, it's hard to see things turning around anytime soon.

The Sox hitters will be in for a tough challenge with Nick Martinez (1-4, 4.23 ERA, 1.30) on the mound for the Reds. The 34-year-old got off to a bumpy start in 2025, but has now posted three consecutive quality starts. While his WHIP shows he is allowing too many baserunners, that is less of an issue when facing a lineup like he’ll see tonight.

Bryse Wilson (0-1, 4.88 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) has regressed badly after two strong seasons with the Brewers. However, he was sharp in his last start, allowing one run over five innings against the Marlins. The Reds' lineup is better than the Marlins, but they haven’t been playing like it lately, posting a .198 average with a .641 OPS over the last week.

Wilson will be able to keep the Reds in check as the White Sox lineup continues to struggle, making this too-high total easy to cover. 

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Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers (8:05 PM EST)

PICK: Astros ML (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook

Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) has the most wins in baseball and ranks fourth in ERA and sixth in WHIP. Since April 3, he has gone 6-0 and allowed six earned runs over seven starts. He has been pitching like an ace and is a big reason the Astros are crawling back into the AL West race. 

Brown should receive plenty of support from the red-hot Astros lineup, which has a .301 batting average over the last week. Jeremy Pena has led the way with a .407 average with two home runs and nine stolen bases during that span. 

Rangers’ starter Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) has been healthy and once again looking like a Cy Young winner in 2025. The problem is that he isn’t going deep into games, going five innings in two consecutive starts. Several relievers are struggling, with Rangers closer Luke Jackson dealing with a hand injury. 

We don’t trust the Texas bullpen to finish what deGrom starts tonight, especially against a Houston team seeing the ball well.

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