MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2026: Can Cal Raleigh Follow Up His Historic 60-Homer Season?

Every year, one of the most fascinating individual races in baseball is the competition to lead the majors in home runs.

Typically, some of the biggest stars in baseball are involved in this race, although younger and unexpected players sometimes crash the party, which keeps things interesting. All season, we’ll be tracking what sluggers have the best odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2026 and sharing our pick for the best bet at that point in the season.

Let's check out favorites and their odds.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

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MLB Home Run Leader - My Pick

Aaron Judge (+350) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The New York Yankees' superstar Aaron Judge enters the 2026 season as our favorite to be the MLB Home Run Leader, boasting preseason betting odds of +350 at BetMGM.

While players like Shohei Ohtani (+400), Kyle Schwarber (+800), and the reigning 2025 home run king Cal Raleigh (+900) pose significant threats, projection systems like THE BAT X consistently forecast Judge to lead the majors, currently projecting him for a league-high 50 homers. Judge's elite underlying metrics, such as his unmatched barrel percentage and isolated power (ISO), remain perfectly in line with the career averages that helped him club 62 home runs in 2022 and 58 in 2024.

Even in a 2025 campaign where Raleigh hit an outlier 60 homers, Judge still launched 53 long balls, giving him the absolute highest floor and most reliable power profile in all of baseball.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Betting on the MLB home run leader can be a little tricky. It’s far more complicated than merely betting on the current leader in home runs, especially early in the season. Many players are capable of getting hot at some point in the season and hitting a lot of home runs in a short period. But being the home run leader is about maintaining consistency over the full season. Power hitters who can do that are the ones who end up being the home run leader at the end of the season.

Obviously, a player’s current home run total is an important consideration. But it’s also relevant to look at their track record. What’s the highest home run total of their career? Is their home run total steadily increasing year by year? Likewise, is that player at an age at which their home run total is likely to improve? The health of a player is also of great importance. It’s hard to lead the majors in home runs if you miss significant time with an injury. Therefore, a player with a history of injuries may not be the best candidate to be the home run king.

How To Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best platforms for betting on the MLB home run leader or making any other baseball bets. In fact, FanDuel is the official betting partner of MLB, so they have the league well-covered in terms of available betting options. This includes the home run leader, which is a popular betting market.

If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can sign up for one and receive the welcome offer: Get up to $300 back in Bonus Bets. There is no promo code required for this offer. All you have to do is pick a safe bet for your first wager to make sure you collect your bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader History

As mentioned, there is always a lot of attention on who the MLB home run leader is during the season. This is usually because some of the biggest stars in the game earn that distinction. In recent years, Aaron Judge has been the one to beat. However, there are plenty of examples of a player who didn’t receive much consideration before the season becoming the home run leader, including Luke Voit in the shortened 2020 season or Matt Olson in 2023.

Thus, you never know what’s going to happen in the MLB home run race from one year to the next. For proof of that, look no further than a list of the 10 most recent winners.