MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Aaron Judge the Clear Leader, Being Chased by Familiar Names

• Aaron Judge is the clear favorite to be the home run leader despite just one home run since April 4.

• Corbin Carroll, Cal Raleigh, and Tyler Soderstrom share the MLB lead with nine home runs, although that doesn’t make all of them a threat to be the home run king right now.

• Mike Trout is making a surprising push with eight home runs early in the season.

Every year, one of the most fascinating individual races in baseball is the competition to lead the majors in home runs. Typically, some of the biggest stars in baseball are involved in this race, although younger and unexpected players sometimes crash the party, which keeps things interesting. All season, we’ll be tracking what sluggers have the best odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2025 and sharing our pick for the best bet at that point in the season.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

The odds we’re using for tracking the MLB home run leader are from FanDuel Sportsbook. If you’re new to FanDuel, you can sign up for an account and claim: Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions 

Not surprisingly, Aaron Judge was the preseason favorite to lead the majors in home runs. He also got off to a scorching start with six home runs in his first seven games. However, Judge has just one home run since then. In his defense, Judge is hitting over .400, so he’s having a good season nonetheless. However, his lack of power has caused him to fall a little behind in the home run race despite being the obvious betting favorite. During that time, some surprising names have come to the forefront. Corbin Carroll, Cal Raleigh, and Tyler Soderstrom are currently tied with nine home runs each. Carroll is the most shocking of the three because he’s never hit more than 25 homers in a season. However, Raleigh and Soderstrom could have staying power in this race. Raleigh hit 34 homers last year and often sells out for power. Meanwhile, Soderstrom is a blossoming star to watch closely.

As for Shohei Ohtani, who is usually Judge’s top competitor, he has just six home runs thus far. He’s bound to heat up at some point, but he’s not among the top home run hitters at the moment. With Judge and Ohtani falling a little behind, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout have stepped up, collecting eight home runs each and positioning themselves to be key parts of the home run race. Of course, it’s still far too early in the season to forget about Trout and Ohtani. Pete Alonso could be another familiar slugger to watch. Despite hitting just six homers thus far in 2025, Alonso has been one of the best hitters in baseball this year. The home runs will come for Alonso eventually, making him another player to watch in this race.

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MLB Home Leader Pick - Tyler Soderstrom +1200 at FanDuel

The baseball world is still just getting to know Soderstrom, but in terms of value, he’s the best option right now. Hitting nine home runs with a week left in April is so small feat. He’s given himself a slight early lead over the likes of Judge and Ohtani, which could allow Soderstrom to stay in this race all season. While just 23 and still trying to prove himself in the big leagues, Soderstrom had multiple seasons with over 20 home runs in the minors, so his power is not an aberration. Pitchers are still trying to figure out how to pitch to him, and until they do, Soderstrom has to be considered a legitimate threat to be the home run leader in 2025.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Betting on the MLB home run leader can be a little tricky. It’s far more complicated than merely betting on the current leader in home runs, especially early in the season. Many players are capable of getting hot at some point in the season and hitting a lot of home runs in a short period. But being the home run leader is about maintaining consistency over the full season. Power hitters who can do that are the ones who end up being the home run leader at the end of the season.

Obviously, a player’s current home run total is an important consideration. But it’s also relevant to look at their track record. What’s the highest home run total of their career? Is their home run total steadily increasing year by year? Likewise, is that player at an age at which their home run total is likely to improve? The health of a player is also of great importance. It’s hard to lead the majors in home runs if you miss significant time with an injury. Therefore, a player with a history of injuries may not be the best candidate to be the home run king.

How To Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best platforms for betting on the MLB home run leader or making any other baseball bets. In fact, FanDuel is the official betting partner of MLB, so they have the league well-covered in terms of available betting options. This includes the home run leader, which is a popular betting market.

If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can sign up for one and receive the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. There is no promo code required for this offer. All you have to do is pick a safe bet for your first wager to make sure you collect your bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader History

As mentioned, there is always a lot of attention on who the MLB home run leader is during the season. This is usually because some of the biggest stars in the game earn that distinction. In recent years, Aaron Judge has been the one to beat. However, there are plenty of examples of a player who didn’t receive much consideration before the season becoming the home run leader, including Luke Voit in the shortened 2020 season or Matt Olson in 2023.

Thus, you never know what’s going to happen in the MLB home run race from one year to the next. For proof of that, look no further than a list of the 10 most recent winners.