MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Aaron Judge Injury, Shohei Ohtani Hot Streak Change Shape of Race

• A trip to the IL has turned Aaron Judge from the betting favorite to a long shot

• Cal Raleigh continues to lead the majors in home runs and is now the betting favorite to be the home run king

• Five players have surpassed 35 home runs by the end of July, putting all five in contention to be the home run leader in 2025

Every year, one of the most fascinating individual races in baseball is the competition to lead the majors in home runs. Typically, some of the biggest stars in baseball are involved in this race, although younger and unexpected players sometimes crash the party, which keeps things interesting. All season, we’ll be tracking what sluggers have the best odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2025 and sharing our pick for the best bet at that point in the season.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

The odds we’re using for tracking the MLB home run leader are from FanDuel Sportsbook. If you’re new to FanDuel, sign up for an account and claim the welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions 

A lot has changed in the MLB home run race since the All-Star break. The biggest change has been the injury to Aaron Judge. The Yankees are hopeful that Judge will only spend 10 days on the IL before he can at least serve as a DH. But his status is obviously a question mark moving forward. Plus, missing 10 days could make a big difference in a tight race. Thus, he’s moved from being the favorite to almost being a long shot.

The other change since the All-Star break has been Shohei Ohtani getting red-hot. He was starting to languish in the home run race. But hitting five home runs in five games changed that. Ohtani still has some work to do to catch up to Cal Raleigh, who remains the leader after being the first hitter to eclipse 40 homers this season. But Ohtani also hit 15 home runs in May, so he’s capable of making up ground in a hurry.

Finally, it’s worth mentioning Eugenio Suarez and Kyle Schwarber, especially since those two, Raleigh, Judge, and Ohtani are the only five players getting odds from FanDuel at the moment. That officially makes this a five-horse race. Granted, Suarez and Schwarber are both a handful of home runs behind Raleigh with two months left in the season. But both hit double-digit homers in July and have good value, despite having a lot of ground to make up to surpass Raleigh, Judge, and Ohtani.

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MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Shohei Ohtani (+230) at FanDuel

The last couple of weeks reminded us why we were loyal to Ohtani for almost the entire first half of the season. When he gets going, there is no slowing him down. Even if he’s behind Raleigh by a few home runs, Ohtani is capable of making up that ground quickly. He also has a chance to put some distance between himself and Judge while the latter is on the IL. Barring a spectacular finish by Suarez or Schwarber, the race could come down to Raleigh and Ohtani, and right now, Ohtani is the more valuable bet.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Betting on the MLB home run leader can be a little tricky. It’s far more complicated than merely betting on the current leader in home runs, especially early in the season. Many players are capable of getting hot at some point in the season and hitting a lot of home runs in a short period. But being the home run leader is about maintaining consistency over the full season. Power hitters who can do that are the ones who end up being the home run leader at the end of the season.

Obviously, a player’s current home run total is an important consideration. But it’s also relevant to look at their track record. What’s the highest home run total of their career? Is their home run total steadily increasing year by year? Likewise, is that player at an age at which their home run total is likely to improve? The health of a player is also of great importance. It’s hard to lead the majors in home runs if you miss significant time with an injury. Therefore, a player with a history of injuries may not be the best candidate to be the home run king.

How To Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best platforms for betting on the MLB home run leader or making any other baseball bets. In fact, FanDuel is the official betting partner of MLB, so they have the league well-covered in terms of available betting options. This includes the home run leader, which is a popular betting market.

If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can sign up for one and receive the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. There is no promo code required for this offer. All you have to do is pick a safe bet for your first wager to make sure you collect your bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader History

As mentioned, there is always a lot of attention on who the MLB home run leader is during the season. This is usually because some of the biggest stars in the game earn that distinction. In recent years, Aaron Judge has been the one to beat. However, there are plenty of examples of a player who didn’t receive much consideration before the season becoming the home run leader, including Luke Voit in the shortened 2020 season or Matt Olson in 2023.

Thus, you never know what’s going to happen in the MLB home run race from one year to the next. For proof of that, look no further than a list of the 10 most recent winners.