MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2025: Cal Raleigh Holding Steady But Not Over the Line

• With 53 home runs, Cal Raleigh remains the leader in the home run race and the clear favorite to win

• Kyle Schwarber’s power has disappeared coming down the stretch outside of his four-homer game against the Braves last month

• Shohei Ohtani remains within striking distance of Raleigh if he can make September his best month of the season

Every year, one of the most fascinating individual races in baseball is the competition to lead the majors in home runs. Typically, some of the biggest stars in baseball are involved in this race, although younger and unexpected players sometimes crash the party, which keeps things interesting. All season, we’ll be tracking what sluggers have the best odds to lead the majors in home runs in 2025 and sharing our pick for the best bet at that point in the season.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

The odds we’re using for tracking the MLB home run leader are from FanDuel Sportsbook. If you’re new to FanDuel, sign up for an account and claim the welcome bonus: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins.

MLB Home Run Leader Predictions 

With less than three weeks left in the MLB regular season, Cal Raleigh is still the slugger to beat in the home run race. However, he’s not necessarily the clear and obvious favorite you might think. Two weeks ago, Raleigh’s odds to be the home run king were -390. Those odds have dropped to -190 at the start of the second week of September. Despite being the first hitter to reach the 50-home-run plateau and hitting three homers over his first six games in September, oddsmakers remain somewhat skeptical that Raleigh can get over the finish line. However, one thing Raleigh has done all season is avoid long droughts without a home run, which works in his favor.

The curious case of Kyle Schwarber could be what’s keeping Raleigh’s odds down. Surely, every baseball fan is aware of his four-homer game against the Braves in August. That game brought him close to overtaking Raleigh, making him a serious threat. However, Schwarber went six games without a homer before that four-homer game, and he’s gone 10 games and counting without a home run since then. Obviously, if Schwarber gets hot, he can make up a lot of ground in a hurry. But his current drought is undoubtedly a concern.

Of course, Shohei Ohtani is also worth mentioning, as he remains a factor in this race. He’s currently five home runs behind Raleigh after a modest total of seven homers in August. But a recent two-homer game was a good reminder of just how quickly Ohtani can make up ground. Over his first seven games in September, Ohtani is hitting .346 with three home runs. He could be poised for a big month, and if Raleigh slows down at all, Ohtani is more than capable of passing him.

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MLB Home Leader - My Pick

Shohei Ohtani (-190) at FanDuel

Two weeks ago, Raleigh didn’t have much value at -390, but the math has changed with his odds at -190. Those odds are surprisingly lucrative since he leads Schwarber by four home runs and Ohtani by five home runs with less than three weeks left in the season. Raleigh has hit at least eight home runs in every month this season. If that trend continues, he’ll get close to 60, making it tough for Scharber and Ohtani, who haven’t yet reached 50 homers, to catch him.

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How to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

Betting on the MLB home run leader can be a little tricky. It’s far more complicated than merely betting on the current leader in home runs, especially early in the season. Many players are capable of getting hot at some point in the season and hitting a lot of home runs in a short period. But being the home run leader is about maintaining consistency over the full season. Power hitters who can do that are the ones who end up being the home run leader at the end of the season.

Obviously, a player’s current home run total is an important consideration. But it’s also relevant to look at their track record. What’s the highest home run total of their career? Is their home run total steadily increasing year by year? Likewise, is that player at an age at which their home run total is likely to improve? The health of a player is also of great importance. It’s hard to lead the majors in home runs if you miss significant time with an injury. Therefore, a player with a history of injuries may not be the best candidate to be the home run king.

How To Read Home Run Leader Odds

With multiple candidates to be the home run king, most players will have plus (+) betting odds. Therefore, the profit will be greater than the wager. For instance, a $100 bet on +500 odds will have a profit of $500. Of course, if there is a clear favorite, they may have negative (-) odds. This means that for a player with -150 odds, you will have to bet $150 in order to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on the MLB Home Run Leader

FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best platforms for betting on the MLB home run leader or making any other baseball bets. In fact, FanDuel is the official betting partner of MLB, so they have the league well-covered in terms of available betting options. This includes the home run leader, which is a popular betting market.

If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can sign up for one and receive the welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. There is no promo code required for this offer. All you have to do is pick a safe bet for your first wager to make sure you collect your bonus bets.

MLB Home Run Leader History

As mentioned, there is always a lot of attention on who the MLB home run leader is during the season. This is usually because some of the biggest stars in the game earn that distinction. In recent years, Aaron Judge has been the one to beat. However, there are plenty of examples of a player who didn’t receive much consideration before the season becoming the home run leader, including Luke Voit in the shortened 2020 season or Matt Olson in 2023.

Thus, you never know what’s going to happen in the MLB home run race from one year to the next. For proof of that, look no further than a list of the 10 most recent winners.