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Warriors vs. Kings Prediction: Western Conference Playoff Rematch

Written by: Grant Mitchell
Published October 27, 2023
8 min read

The Golden State Warriors eliminated the Sacramento Kings in seven games in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs a year ago and will hit the road again Friday night as they search for their first win of the new NBA season.

The Warriors will be without Draymond Green, who is still recovering from a sprained ankle suffered during the offseason. The Kings are coming off a 130-114 win over the Utah Jazz and believe that with their youth and level of talent, they can be the best team in California.

Here, we will highlight the betting odds and share our insights on the rivalry rematch.

Warriors vs. Kings Prediction

Warriors vs. Kings Betting Odds for Friday, Oct. 27 

The Kings are slight favorites on Friday night. There’s a real argument that they should have beaten the Warriors in the playoffs and would have had De’Aaron Fox not broken his finger during the series or if Steph Curry hadn’t put up 50 points in Game Seven.

*Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code for a $1,500 welcome bonus.*

Golden State Warriors+3.5 (-115)+120Over 239.5 (-110)
Sacramento Kings-3.5 (-115)-145Under 239.5 (-110)

The Warriors looked like a work in progress in their season-opening loss against the Phoenix Suns, 108-104. The offense was free-flowing at times, with Paul and Curry sharing the backcourt, but it also seemed out of rhythm at times because of the difference in pace the two point guards are used to playing at.

Golden State’s rotations and defensive assignments are also much different without Green available. There’s a greater defensive burden on Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga in the second unit, and they’ll even try Gary Payton II at power forward in spots.

The Dubs didn’t shoot the ball well against Phoenix (10-43, 23.3% from three), but that won’t hold with their level of ability. However, they are not going to be a bombs-away three-point shooting team like they have been in years past simply because they don’t have the personnel to be.

Aside from Curry and Klay Thompson, only Paul and Wiggins can confidently take high-volume threes—and that’s not their game. The Warriors’ reserves are primarily slashers or second-chance guys who thrive off off-ball movement and the indirect actions of the game.

On the other side is Sacramento, which had one of the best home environments in the league but was a better road team last year (23-18 at home, 25-16 away). That aside, Golden State was a horrible 11-30 outside of the Chase Center.

Mike Brown’s team had the best offensive rating in league history last year, scoring more than 119 points per 100 possessions. Their issues were on the defensive side, as they provided little-to-no resistance to their opponents.

It was only one game, but defense looked like a greater priority for Sacramento against Utah. They held them to 41-91 (45.1%) shooting from the field and 9-28 (32.1%) from outside. They also forced 14 turnovers but committed too many fouls.

Warriors vs. Kings Prediction and Betting Pick

The Warriors won three of four meetings with the Kings in the regular season (splitting 1-1 on the road) and beat them in seven in the postseason. But without Green in the lineup, they will struggle to contain the multitude of looks the Kings can go to on offense.

Domantas Sabonis (22 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists in the opener) should have a large role. Looney is not a guy who can consistently play 30+ minutes, and he’s also uncomfortable stepping away from the basket to guard around the nail (where Sabonis often initiates the offense).

The Kings can also match the Warriors from outside but have enough youth and speed to run past the old legs of Curry, Paul, and Thompson. Plus, they’re picking up where they left off, while the Warriors are trying to figure out how to blend the skillsets of two legendary but very different point guards.

If it isn’t obvious by now, we’re leaning towards the Kings on the spread. Player prop bettors should check out Sabonis’ markets, especially combos such as points+rebounds.

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Grant Mitchell

538 Articles

Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.

In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.

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