Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Hurricanes Offense

• The Miami Hurricanes beat Texas A&M 10-3 in the first round of the playoffs

• Ohio State is listed as the betting favorite to win the National Championship

• The Buckeyes defense ranks top-10 in Def Finishing Drives and in Success Rate

After narrowly beating Texas A&M in the first round of the playoffs, the Miami Hurricanes look to secure their second upset in a row as a sizable underdog against Ohio State in the quarterfinals. With the reigning national champions defense residing near the top of the board in most defensive metrics, expect the Hurricanes to struggle to move the ball down the field and be held under their team total.

Miami vs. Ohio State Odds

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Miami vs. Ohio State My Pick

• My pick: Miami Team Total Under 16.5 (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Carson Beck struggled to move the ball down the field against Texas A&M, Mark Fletcher Jr was able to thrive as the Hurricanes running back finished the contest with 172 Rushing Yards. Even when running behind an offensive line who ranks 37th in Line Yards, Fletcher had no issue with capitalizing on the low quality running lanes his front five provided as he averaged over 10 Yards per Carry.

Unfortunately for Fletcher, negative regression looms large on Wednesday night as he faces off against an Ohio State front seven who excels at stuffing the run as their top-10 mark in Def Rush Success Rate indicates. With Fletcher incapable of pulling the Buckeyes secondary to the middle, the quality of Beck’s passing lanes will harshly decline which lowers his chances of connecting with his pass catchers. With no clear path of getting into scoring position, expect the Hurricanes to be held off the scoreboard.

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Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction

Miami Preview

Since transferring to Miami, Carson Beck has been able to play at a high level as the Hurricanes quarterback finished the regular season throwing for 3,175 yards and 26 touchdowns while completing 74.5% of his passes. Beck’s offensive line played a major role in his success this season as they consistently gave him a clean pocket to operate in as the Hurricanes front five ranks second in Pass Block Set Grade.

On the other side of the field, the Hurricanes defensive line have been one of the more dominant units in the league as they lead the nation in Pass Rush Win Rate. With the Hurricanes capable of collapsing Ohio State’s pocket with just their defensive line, their linebackers will be able to anchor across the middle to help cover more ground and mask their below league average mark in Open Field Tackling.

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Ohio State Preview

After taking over as the starting quarterback for the reigning national champions, Julian Sayin was able to immediately play at a very high level as the Heisman finalist ranked third in Quarterback EPA per Play. His production under center helped turn the Buckeyes into one of the more formidable units in the nation as their offense ranks in the top-3 in Pass Success Rate, Havoc Allowed, and in Finishing Drives.

While the Buckeyes offense hogged the spotlight, their defense has been just as productive as they head into the quarterfinals ranked fifth in Def Success Rate. With their defense limiting the amount of variance in their contests, the Buckeyes are able to steadily pull away on the scoreboard. Should the Buckeyes get off to a slow start, then look to place a live wager on them to cover the spread at no higher than -7.

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Miami vs. Ohio State: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Miami vs. Ohio State Injury Report

Miami

• Daylyn Upshaw (WR) - Out (foot)

Ohio State

• Quincy Porter (WR) - Questionable (undisclosed)

How to Watch Miami vs. Ohio State

• When: Wednesday, December 31st

• Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

• How to Watch: ESPN