Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions in Week 3: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Lions Defense

• Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson averaged 6.5 yards per carry against Cleveland in week two

• Jackson is currently listed as one of the top contenders for the NFL MVP award

• Detroit’s defensive line ranks dead last in PFF Grade and in Pass Rush Win Rate

After successfully shredding the Cleveland Browns' defense in week two, Lamar Jackson has the opportunity to strengthen his position for the NFL MVP award as he faces off against a Detroit Lions defense who struggles to generate pressure. With more time in the pocket to operate, higher quality running lanes will open up while the Lions secondary are scrambling in coverage.

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Lamar Jackson Anytime Touchdown (+145) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even after signing Derrick Henry, the former NFL Offensive Player of the Year award has not affected Lamar Jackson’s usage inside the 20 as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback currently leads the team in Red Zone carries. Not only is Jackson a threat on the ground in designed runs, but he is also capable of generating a rush attempt by scrambling away from opposing pressure.

In Monday night’s contest against Detroit, Lamar will have a great opportunity to stay ahead of the sticks as he faces off against a Lions defensive line who ranks dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate and in PFF Grade. This gives him a cleaner pocket to work with which simultaneously opens up higher quality rushing lanes while the Lions' secondary are scrambled in coverage.

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Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown (+110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Heading into the year, the Chicago Bears' defense were expected to take a leap forward with their production and play a major role in their ability to compete for the NFC North division title. Unfortunately for Chicago, their latest matchup against Detroit showed that their front seven still struggles to stop the run as they gave up a combined total of 151 yards to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

Heading into week three’s matchup against Dallas, the Bears struggles with stopping the run are poised to persist as they face off against Javonte Williams who ranks above league average in Rushing Yards Over Expected per carry. Especially with his offensive line excelling at opening up gaps in the trenches as the Cowboys rank top-12 in Run Block Win Rate.

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Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown (+205) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the quality of opponents does need to be factored in, it’s worth noting how well the Indianapolis Colts offense have played this season as they currently rank top-3 in Off EPA per play. Daniel Jones has helped turn their offense into a competitive unit as the Colts' newly acquired quarterback resides near the top of the board Quarterback PFF Grade.

Tyler Warren has also injected some life into their pass attack by serving as Jones’ primary option when inside the 20 as the rookie tight end leads the team in Red Zone Targets. With the Tennessee Titans' defensive line struggling to collapse the pocket, Warren will have more time in the open field to create space and give Jones a high-quality passing lane for him to throw to.

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Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (-155) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Even though Bijan Robinson is still splitting carries with his backup Tyler Allgeier, that has not stopped him from putting together a productive performance as he finished last week’s contest against Minnesota rushing for 143 yards. Robinson is also still the Falcons' top choice when in scoring territory as he leads the team in Red Zone carries.

In a divisional matchup against Carolina, expect Robinson to continue to thrive as he faces off against a Panthers defense who ranks near dead last in Run Defense Win Rate. For some more exposure, escalator bet Robinson’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals.

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