Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in seven catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 4
St. Brown currently leads all Detroit Lions pass catchers in Total Red Zone Targets
The Cincinnati Bengals' defense ranks below league average in Def DVOA and in EPA
Since the start of the regular season, the Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown has quickly built a case for winning the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award as he has been dominant in the red zone. In a favorable matchup against Cincinnati, St. Brown will have a great opportunity to build on his momentum by torching a Bengals defense who severely struggles in coverage.
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Even though the Detroit Lions offense is full of productive skill players, Amon-Ra St. Brown is still Jared Goff’s most reliable target as the star wide receiver leads the team in total Red Zone Targets and in Receptions. St. Brown’s production was on full display against Cleveland last week as he finished the contest hauling in seven catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns.
In Sunday’s matchup against Cincinnati, St. Brown is in a favorable position to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a Cincinnati Bengals defense who ranks below league average in Def DVOA and in EPA. Especially with the Bengals' secondary stretched out thin in coverage, giving St. Brown more room to work with in his efforts of creating separation.
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While St. Brown has thrived, Chase Brown has struggled as the Bengals running back currently ranks well below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Jake Browning failing to stretch out the defense allows opposing linebackers to crash down at a heavier rate which drastically lessens the quality of his running lanes.
Fortunately for Brown, he will have a great opportunity to round back into form as the Lions' injuries to their secondary will help the Bengals find more success through the air. While generating rush production may continue to be a struggle, Brown will play a bigger role in check-down situations with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins pulling defensive attention away from him.
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Like Brown, TreVeyon Henderson has also struggled to find his footing this season as the New England Patriots' rookie running back ranks near dead last in the same previously mentioned rushing metric. Henderson did manage to bounce back in last week’s contest against Carolina as he punched one in for six while averaging over four yards per carry
In an AFC East divisional matchup against Buffalo, Henderson will be able to churn out yards after contact as he faces off against a Bills defense who ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate. Especially with the Bills anchoring their linebackers at a heavy rate, giving Henderson more room to work with when he gets past the line of scrimmage.
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Even with CeeDee Lamb out with an injury, the Dallas Cowboys offense have been able to sustain their high level of play as they head into week five ranked top-10 in Off DVOA. The addition of George Pickens has given Dak Prescott another reliable option to throw to as the Cowboys' wide receiver is averaging over nine Targers per game since Lamb went down.
When inside the 20, Pickens has seen his usage rate skyrocket as he currently leads the team in total Red Zone Targets. With the Cowboys expected to get into scoring position at a more consistent rate in a favorable matchup against the New York Jets' underwhelming defense, Pickens will see an uptick in his number of targets which increases his chances of scoring.
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