Best Baker Mayfield Player Props for 49ers vs. Buccaneers in Week 6

• Baker Mayfield’s odds to win the NFL MVP award continues to grow

• Mayfield threw for 379 yards and 2 touchdowns against Seattle in week five

• The San Francisco 49ers defense ranks below league average in Blitz Rate

After throwing for 379 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s win against Seattle, negative regression looms large over Baker Mayfield as the surging NFL MVP contender faces off against a San Francisco 49ers defense who thrives in coverage. Especially with his offensive line ravaged by injuries, making it easier for the 49ers front seven to generate pressure at a consistent rate.

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Best Baker Mayfield Player Props in Week 6

Baker Mayfield Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Baker Mayfield has been instrumental in Tampa Bay’s hot start to the year as the Buccaneers quarterback currently ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play. The emergence of Emeka Egbuka has played a major role in his success as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contender has been able to mask Mike Evans loss of production since he went down with an injury.

Unfortunately for Mayfield, the injuries to his offensive line will rear their ugly head as the San Francisco 49ers will be able to collapse the pocket at a consistent rate while keeping their linebackers anchored in coverage. With extra bodies spread across the middle, the quality of Mayfield’s passing lanes drastically declines which hurts his ability to move the ball down the field through the air.

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Baker Mayfield Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Speaking of the Bucs offensive line, it has been a rough start to the year for their front five as they head into week six ranked near dead last in Pass Protection Win Rate and in PFF Grade. Their inability to hold their ground in pass sets forces Mayfield to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated which lowers his chances of generating an explosive play.

San Francisco’s pressure also lessens the amount of time Mayfield’s pass catchers will have to break away from their coverage, making it easier for the 49ers to keep a body on their hips. This will help their secondary bring down the Bucs pass catchers at the point of contact, as well as make it easier to create disruptive plays to help force the incompletion.

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Baker Mayfield Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the 49ers scheme helps them in their efforts of depending against the pass, it leaves them vulnerable to getting beat on the ground as their front seven ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate. Especially when their front line is unable to bring down the quarterback as there is a large gap between them and their linebackers who are anchored in coverage.

While Mayfield is not known for his running ability, he is efficient when he takes off and runs as he averages over seven yards per carry. For some more exposure, escalator bet Mayfield’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

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Baker Mayfield Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+375) at Caesars Sportsbook

When inside the 20, Mayfield may opt into the idea of using his legs at a heavier rate as the 49ers secondary will be able to cover more ground in the shortened field. This will help negate the Havoc that comes with throwing into a clogged passing lane, as well as keep the Bucs in scoring position should Mayfield come up short.

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Baker Mayfield 2025-2026 Stats

• Passing Yards: 1,283

• Passing Touchdowns: 10

• Completion Percentage: 65.1%

• Average Yards per Attempt: 7.5

• Interceptions: 1

• Rushing Yards: 144

• Average Yards per Carry: 7.6

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