Image for Richard Janvrin Richard Janvrin - November 15, 2022

Best MNF Prop Bets Tonight Week 10

MNF Prop Bets Week 10

The Philadelphia Eagles are hosting their division rival, the Washington Commanders, as they seek a 9-0 start to the season. The Eagles didn’t cover the spread in their last game against the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football but will look to take care of business coming off of what is sort of a mini-bye week with about 10 days of rest. 

Here, we’ll look at the players in the game and judge which single-player prop bets may be worth spreading some cash out on.

Let’s dive in. 

Brian Robinson Jr. Any Time TD (+220) at Caesars

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Looking up and down the stat sheets, it’s hard to pinpoint a way for the Commanders to score in this game, but the one thing that stands out is the Eagles rushing defense.

A lot of this could be similar to the Buffalo Bills from a year ago, where they don’t care if you run on them, but the Eagles allow over 121 rushing yards per game. On the season, opponents run for 5.2 yards per carry against them, and over their last three games, they’ve run at 5.4 yards per carry. 

Robinson Jr. is not only a great redemption story, but he’s become the primary rusher for this team as he continues a committee with Antonio Gibson.

Coming off two games with 13 carries or less, Robinson Jr. had 17 carries in Week 6 and 20 in Week 7. 

The Commanders cannot win in a shootout here. Their game plan from the start should be to run the ball with Robinson Jr. The Eagles have allowed some higher rushing totals over the past few weeks, including 139 to Texans running back Dameon Pierce. 

If the Commanders get the ball to open the game, expect a heavy dosage of them running the ball, despite their affinity to throw it (63.7% of their offensive snaps). 

Getting +220 is excellent value here. 

Caesars Sportsbook offers new players that sign up for an account using our link a $1,250 risk-free bet

A.J. Brown Any Time TD (+110) at DraftKings

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With six touchdowns on the season, Brown has found himself there in all but four games this season. He’s scored five touchdowns in his last three games. 

The targets aren’t enormous—23 over the last three games—but he’s getting targeted downfield, including an average target depth of 19.1 in Week 8 and an 11.8 average on the season.

Against the Commanders, Brown will see a mix of Benjamin St-Juste and Kendall Fuller. 

Fuller allows over 16 yards per catch on the year, while St-Juste isn’t too far behind at 15.6. They’ve given up a combined five touchdowns on the year. For St-Juste, he’s given up 390 yards this year, and 117 of those have come after the catch.

For Brown, 284 of his 718 yards have come after the catch. Those 284 yards rank him seventh in the league amongst all players with at least 50 targets. 

Getting a plus price here at home, Brown should score in his fourth straight game—the matchup is just too good. 

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Taylor Heinicke Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+195) at Caesars

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Generally speaking, for someone like Heinicke and a team like the Commanders, who we expect to trail given an 11-point spread, “garbage time” touchdowns are likely to happen.

As seen by this +195 line, Caesars also seems to think that’s the case.

Sure, the Commanders pass the ball on nearly 64% of their offensive snaps, and Heinicke is averaging over 30 attempts per game. 

However, he’s completing just 63% of his passes and has three interceptions. However, he should potentially have more interceptions. According to Pro Football Focus, Heinicke has nine turnover-worthy plays on 92 attempts. His 8.2% turnover-worthy play rate is the highest in the NFL amongst quarterbacks, with at least 100 dropbacks.

Heinicke has a talented No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin.

Curtis Samuel is a great complimentary piece.

And yes, Jahan Dotson might be back for this one.

However, the Eagles secondary is not one to be trifled with. Not only do they have 32 forced incompletions, 25 pass breakups, and 12 interceptions, but they also have 10 touchdowns. 

Oh yeah—Chauncey Gardner-Johnson leads the league in interceptions, too.

This will be a bad day for Heinicke, and at +195, we’ll take a swing on him not passing one into the endzone.

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

291 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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