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This week will introduce a new approach to the parlay after some frustrating misses, including the brutal over/under in the Dolphins/Eagles game. These legs have value, especially if you mix and match the right ones, but finding the correct five-leg grouping has been challenging, as expected.
So let’s switch it up with some fresh ideas, some of which paid off well last week. Here’s the weekly parlay. Tail or mix and match to your pleasure.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|TB @ BUF: ALT, UNDER 46.5 points||-200|
|$10 to win $15|
|MIA vs. NE - Dolphins 1H -5.5||-112|
|$10 to win $28.39|
|CLE @ SEA: Both teams to score 20+ points: NO||-330|
|$10 to win $36.99|
|LAC vs. CHI - Chargers -8.5||-110|
|$10 to win $70.63|
|Detroit Lions ML||-380|
|$10 to win $89.21|
Each of my last three parlays has died on the first leg regardless of how well the bets after it have done. So this is the chance to buck the trend with a “safer” bet.
Josh Allen faces a Tampa Bay defense that sits tied for the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed, leading a Buffalo attack that has struggled in recent weeks. The Bills have faced just two defenses that sit at or above the league average in points per game allowed, the Jaguars at 16th and the New York Jets at 13th, and Buffalo failed to score more than 20 points in either.
The Buccaneers, which sit sixth in points allowed, could be arguably the Bills’ toughest test yet. The offense has looked inconsistent at best since its win over Miami in Week 4, and Thursday night games are notoriously sloppy.
Add in that the Bucs have scored just one touchdown or less in three of the team’s last four games, and this game is shaping up to finish as a low-scoring affair.
Miami burnt a lot of people in Week 7, whether that concerned the over/under or simply the disappointing offensive day in general. And frankly, this game feels almost like a trap rather than a get-right situation.
Still, the Dolphins are 3-0 since 2020 at home against the Patriots and are a far more talented team than their divisional foes. So there may be some value at Miami’s first-half spread.
Only four teams allow more points in the first half than the Patriots, who sit tied at 27th. For transparency’s sake, I used this process last week with Buffalo before the team imploded. Still, the methodology made sense and overreacting to an unlucky circumstance few saw coming is a good way to compound your error.
The Dolphins average over 19 points per game in the first half, far and away the best among all other teams. The Patriots sit down at 29th in the category, averaging just 6.6 points per game in the first half. Getting this first-half spread at less than a touchdown is worth chasing.
For clarity, this bet is for at least one of Cleveland or Seattle to not score 20+ points. For example, if Seattle wins 24-17, this bet would hit.
This game could be the definition of “ugly” if you don’t like defensive games. This Browns defense is here to stay, allowing the fewest yards and first downs per game. Cleveland also allows just 19.2 points per game, 10th in the NFL and heavily swayed by an anomalous 38-point concession to the Colts last week.
There’s a good argument for Seattle to finish under 20 points in this, but there’s an even better one for Cleveland to do so. Starting running back Jerome Ford is expected to be sidelined with an ankle injury, leading Kareem Hunt back to a starting role. Hunt hasn’t found the Fountain of Youth, and Deshaun Watson has yet to spark an inept passing attack.
Now this struggling Browns unit, at least when Watson is under center, heads to one of the toughest stadiums to play at, Lumen Field. I’d want nothing to do with the Browns, unless I’m fading their offense.
Tyson Bagent was a nice story, managing his way to a win on the back of an impressive day by backup running back D’Onta Foreman. But his 2.3 air yards-per-attempt, which was the lowest of any qualifying quarterback this season, isn’t a sustainable method for winning.
The Chargers are beat through the air, and the Bears won’t be able to do that with Bagent under center. Meanwhile, the Chargers are searching for their first win since their game against the Raiders and head coach Brandon Staley can’t afford to drop this game.
Justin Herbert is also still the quarterback for the Chargers. That should be good for an 8.5-point cover against a team that will struggle to play from behind. Given that Los Angeles averages the sixth-most points per game in the first half, that gamescript should be prevalent in Week 8.
The Lions are coming off the team’s worst performance of the season. Fortunately, Jared Goff and his squad return home to take on the embarrassing team that is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Who knows who is going to be under center for the Raiders, Vegas likely doesn’t know itself, but the Lions will come away as winners regardless. Detroit’s offense stumbled against the Ravens, but the Raiders shouldn’t be nearly as much of a challenge. Las Vegas has allowed 23 points per game this season, 22nd in the NFL.
Can the Raiders beat that total or restrict one of the best offenses in the NFL to less than it? I doubt it, which makes the Lions a nice boost at the end of the parlay.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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