Best Bills vs. Buccaneers Prop Bets: The Buccaneers Get Back Two Key Weapons

• The Bills allow the fewest yards per game to tight ends at 26.89

• Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid is unlikely to play, paving the way for more snaps for Dawson Knox

• The Buccaneers may have Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving back in the lineup following limited practices on Wednesday

In Week 11, the Buffalo Bills will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Coming off a brutal loss to the Miami Dolphins, 30-13, the Bills' Super Bowl odds are +900, which ranks fourth in the NFL.

That said, their starting running back, James Cook, is +2500 in the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds.

As for the Buccaneers, they're coming off a 28-23 loss to the New England Patriots, who are now tied for the best record in the NFL, and who also beat the Bills earlier this season.

With all that in mind, let's check out three props for this matchup.

Best Bills vs. Buccaneers Prop Bets

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Cade Otton Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook

Over the last three games, Otton is second on the Buccaneers in target share at 22.4%. In that span, he’s averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 57.7 yards per game. 

However, I’m taking the under here against the Bills. 

The Bills are allowing the fewest receptions (2.56) and receiving yards (26.89) per game. 

Only one tight end, Travis Kelce, has had 48 yards or more in a game. 

The Buccaneers haven’t had a great running game this season, but establishing that will be key to a potential victory, as the Bills allow the third-most rushing yards per game at 147.6. 

Additionally, the Buccaneers may have both running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Chris Godwin back in the lineup as they both logged a limited practice on Wednesday. 

This will only take opportunities away from Otton and lower his target share.

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Dawson Knox Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook

With Kincaid likely sidelined for this game with a hamstring injury and Khalil Shakir listed as questionable, Knox is in a fantastic position to be on the field a bunch and haul in plenty of targets. 

Last week, after Kincaid departed, Knox drew a 14.3% target share, catching three passes on four targets for 37 yards. 

This season, the Buccaneers are allowing 7 targets, 5.11 receptions, and 42.89 receiving yards per game to the tight end position. Thus far, five tight ends have hit 31 receiving yards or more. 

Considering the injuries and a potential back-and-forth against a competent Buccaneers team that'll have two big weapons back in the lineup, Knox should see enough targets to hit 31 yards.

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Baker Mayfield Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Fanatics Sportsbook

On the road as a decently-sized underdog (5.5 points), Mayfield will have two potential pass catchers back in the lineup in Irving and Godwin. 

While the Bills allow just 170.2 passing yards per game, three of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced have had 240 passing yards or more. 

The quarterbacks who were held under were Tua Tagovailoa twice, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. 

Of course, though, Jackson attempted just 19 passes and ran for 70 yards.

The Bills play Cover-3 more than anything else. Sure, it’s more evenly spread than some other teams, but Mayfield is completing more than 67% of his passes against Cover-3. 

I'm not saying the Bills' pass defense is a mirage, but it's been beatable lately by more competent quarterbacks, which I'd lump Mayfield into.

Take the over.

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