Best Bills vs. Texans Prop Bets: Negative Regression Looms Large Over Josh Allen

• Josh Allen’s odds to win the NFL MVP award continues to grow

• The Houston Texans are currently one game back for the last wildcard spot

• The Texans' defense rank top-5 in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate

After a slow start to the year, the Houston Texans defense have started to round back into dominant form as they head into week 12 ranked near the top of the board in most key defensive metrics. In an AFC Conference matchup against the Buffalo Bills, expect negative regression to swing towards Josh Allen’s way as the NFL MVP contender will be forced to scramble away from the Texans' pressure at a high rate.

For more insights, check our latest AFC Championship odds, along with NFL MVP Predictions.

Best Bills vs. Texans Prop Bets

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Josh Allen Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even with his group of pass catchers underwhelming on paper, Josh Allen has been able to make the most with what he has to work with as the Buffalo Bills quarterback ranks top-5 in Quarterback EPA per play. His decision-making and efficient throws have played a major role in his success through the first eleven weeks of the season as Allen also ranks third overall in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

Unfortunately for Allen, negative regression looms large in Thursday night’s matchup against Houston as he faces off against a Texans front seven who excels at generating pressure as their above league average mark in Pass Rush Win Rate indicates. With Allen forced to throw on the run at a higher rate, the quality of his throws will harshly decline which lowers his chances of connecting with his receivers.

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Josh Allen Longest Completion Under 36.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With Allen forced to leave the pocket shortly after the snap, the Bills' pass catchers will have less time in the open field to break away from the Texans' secondary which hurts their ability to generate an explosive play. Especially with the Texans preferring to anchor their linebackers in coverage, making it easier for them to keep a body on their pass catchers hips and create disruptions at the point of contact.

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Woody Marks Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After entering the year listed below Nick Chubb on Houston’s depth chart, the Texans speedster has been able to chip away at his teammates' usage rate as he ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. An impressive feat when you factor in the low-quality running lanes his offensive line provides as the Texans reside near the bottom of the board in Run Block Line Yards.

In Thursday night’s conference matchup against Buffalo, expect Marks to continue to run wild as he faces off against a Bills front seven who ranks in the bottom three in Run Defense PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Marks rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Woody Marks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only has Marks started to receive a heavier workload in the middle of the field, but he has also been the focal point of the Texans' offense when in scoring position as he leads the team in Red Zone Carries. Marks also plays a role in their pass sets as he has managed to convert two of his three Receptions into touchdowns.

With the Texans' offense expected to see an uptick in their total number of scoring opportunities, Marks chances of punching one in for six increases. Especially with the Bills struggling to take advantage of the shortened field as their defense currently ranks below league average in Def DVOA and in EPA.

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