The Browns have allowed 17 points or fewer in two of their first four games.
The Vikings have begun the fourth quarter with just six points in three of their four games.
Justin Jefferson has 15 catches for 201 yards in the two games Carson Wentz has started for the Vikings.
The NFL’s tour of Europe continues this week when the Minnesota Vikings play the Cleveland Browns at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. For American fans, that means another Sunday morning game between two teams that could use a win.
The Vikings played in Europe last week, losing to the Steelers in Ireland despite a late comeback effort. That dropped Minnesota to 2-2, putting them in a tenuous spot, especially with Carson Wentz filling in for J.J. McCarthy. The Browns are also in the midst of some quarterback instability. The team announced this week that Joe Flacco is getting benched in favor of rookie Dillon Gabriel, who will make his first NFL start this week.
Despite being 1-3 on the season, the Browns are near the top in our NFL defense rankings. It certainly helps that Myles Garrett is among the favorites for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. On the other hand, the Browns have scored the second-fewest points in the NFL, so they rank near the bottom of our NFL offense rankings.
Keeping in mind what we’ve seen from both the Vikings and Browns earlier in the season, we’ve put together a three-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new FanDuel users can claim $300 in bonus bets if they win their first wager. While first-time bettors shouldn’t jump right into a same-game parlay, we wanted to share the parlay put together for Sunday’s Browns-Vikings game, which has odds of +976.
One of the safest bets in this game is that it will be a defensive slugfest. While most folks would target the Browns for a low point total, Gabriel starting at quarterback puts an unpredictable element into the equation. He could be better than expected, so it’s best to target the Vikings for a low point total.
Granted, the Vikings have scored at least 21 points in three of their four games. But this pick is about the Cleveland defense, which has played better than the numbers show. High-powered offensive teams like the Ravens and Lions found success, but the Bengals and Packers combined for just 27 points against them. The Vikings are playing with a backup quarterback and had just six points through three and a half quarters last week, so nobody should expect them to light it up against the Browns.
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If there are points scored in this game, they aren’t likely to come in the first half. As mentioned, the Vikings had six first-half points last week. They also scored six total points in a Week 2 loss to the Falcons. In Week 1, they also entered the fourth quarter with just six points. In other words, they are slow starters.
Likewise, the Browns have scored no more than 17 points in any game this season. Obviously, they are hoping Gabriel changes that. But that’s not going to be easy against a Brian Flores defense that’s allowing just 20 points per game. Even if Gabriel provides a spark, it’ll likely come later in the game, leading to a low-scoring first half.
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Even in a defensive slugfest, there should be at least a couple of touchdowns in this game. Who will score that touchdown? The best bet is the best player on the field, which is Jefferson. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, he had 10 catches on 11 targets last week. Clearly, Wentz is looking his way.
Plus, the Cleveland defense has been vulnerable against the pass at times. They’ve allowed eight passing touchdowns in four games, including four from Lamar Jackson in Week 2. Even if the Browns play well defensively, Jefferson will find a way to hurt them sooner or later.
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