The Chicago Bears are 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North
Caleb Williams is currently averaging 7.2 Yards per Throw
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense ranks top-3 in Pass Rush Win Rate
After underwhelming in his rookie year, Caleb Williams has started to get into a groove as the Chicago Bears quarterback continues to climb up the board in most efficiency metrics while leading the NFC North division leaders to a 7-3 start to the season. In Sunday’s contest against Pittsburgh, Williams will need to rely heavily on his legs to sustain drives down the field as he faces off against a front seven who excels at collapsing the pocket.
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Once labeled a bust after being selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, Caleb Williams has started to silence the critics as the Chicago Bears quarterback currently ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play. His efficiency has played a major role in his resurgence as Williams also resides near the top of the board in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage while averaging 7.2 Yards per Throw.
Unfortunately for Williams, negative regression looms large in Sunday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers as the current division leaders in the AFC North rank top-3 in Pass Rush Win Rate and in PFF Grade. With Williams forced to scramble out of the pocket at a heavier rate, his total number of pass attempts will drastically decline which increases his chances of staying under the total on his passing yardage prop.
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The Steelers pressure will also force Williams to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated which will lower the quality of his throws. With less time in the pocket to let his plays develop, the Steelers will be able to keep a defender near the Bears pass catchers hips for the full duration of their routes which makes it easier for them to create disruptions at the point of contact.
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While the Steelers front seven have been able to collapse the pocket in pass sets, they have not had the same success in their efforts of stopping the run as they also rank near dead last in Run Defense Line Yards. A stunning low level of play when you factor in their heavy use of the blitz, yet the Steelers extra bodies in the trenches have been unable to stop opposing running backs from reaching the second level of their defense.
With the Steelers crashing their linebackers into the interior, Williams will have more room to work with when he bounces to the outside in a scrambling situation which increases his chances of generating an explosive run. For some more exposure, escalator bet Williams rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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When in scoring position, Williams has rivaled his running backs in total Red Zone Carries while converting three of his 18 rush attempts into touchdowns. With the Steelers struggling to defend the goal line as their below league average mark in Def EPA indicates, expect Williams to continue to take advantage of the running lanes the scrambled coverage provides and score his fourth rushing touchdown of the season.
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Passing Yards: 2,329
Passing Touchdowns: 13
Completion Percentage: 59.7%
Yards per Throw: 7.2
Total Interceptions: 4
Rushing Yards: 272
Rushing Touchdowns: 3
Yards per Rush: 5.2
Total Fumbles: 5
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