The Indianapolis Colts are tied for first in the AFC South division standings
Will Johnson is listed as questionable on the Arizona Cardinals injury report
Daniel Jones ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play and in PFF Grade
Since joining the Indianapolis Colts, Daniel Jones has seemingly revived his career as the former New York Giants quarterback continues to climb up the oddsboard for the NFL MVP award after a hot start to the season. With the Arizona Cardinals' defense dealing with injuries, expect Jones to continue to build on his momentum and put together another dominant performance.
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Daniel Jones' success in his new setting has not been a fluke as the Indianapolis Colts' newly acquired quarterback heads into week six ranked top-12 in Quarterback EPA per play and in Completion Percentage Above Expected. With Jones playing at a high level, the Colts offense have turned into a formidable unit as they reside near the top of the board in Off DVOA.
In Sunday’s contest against Arizona, Jones will have a great opportunity to build on his hot start as he faces off against a Cardinals front seven who ranks below league average in Pass Rush Win Rate and in PFF Grade. For some extra exposure, escalator bet Jones passing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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Speaking of the Cardinals' injuries, their secondary has been ravaged over the past few weeks as Will Johnson, Max Melton, and Mack Wilson Sr. are all listed as questionable on their injury report. Should Johnson be unable to give it a go, then the Cardinals' production on the back end will harshly decline as the rookie cornerback has played at a very high level this season.
Even with the Cardinals blitzing at a very low rate, the second level of their defense will be picked apart with their backups being elevated into a starting role. Especially with Jones getting the benefit of operating in a clean pocket as this reduces the amount of Havoc in his throws as well as giving his pass catchers more time in the open field to break away from their coverage.
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Since the start of the regular season, Jonathan Taylor has been able to reach the second level of the defense at a high rate as the Offensive Player of the Year contender ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Carry. His production was on full display last weekend as he averaged nearly four yards per carry while scoring three touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Taylor’s offensive line has played a major role in his success this season as the Colts front five ranks top-10 in Run Block Win Rate and in PFF Grade. With his offensive line consistently opening up wider rushing lanes, as well as the Cardinals anchoring their linebackers in coverage, expect Taylor to continue to churn out chunks of yards at a time with each carry.
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When inside the 20, Taylor has been the focal point of the Colts offense as he comfortably leads the team in total number of Red Zone Carries with an 86.7% usage rate. With the Colts expected to move the ball down the field at a higher rate, Taylor will see an uptick in his number of scoring opportunities which increases his chances of punching one in for six.
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