The Panthers are 2-0 at home this season.
The Cowboys are averaging 30.2 points per game, which is fourth-most in the NFL.
The Cowboys are allowing 284.6 passing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys last played on Dec. 15, 2024, and the Cowboys won 30-14.
In this game, the Panthers are 3-point home underdogs. Neither team is anywhere near the top of the Super Bowl odds. Additionally, no players are currently at the top of the NFL MVP odds, although Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at a high level.
Below, you’ll find my predictions for this game. Be sure to check out our NFL defense rankings, along with NFL offense rankings, to see where these teams stand. Hint: The Cowboys are on opposite ends of each category.
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So far this season, Young has thrown two touchdown passes or more in two games. The first came in Week 2 on the road against the Arizona Cardinals when the Panthers were down by multiple scores. That’s what we refer to as “garbage time” touchdowns.
The second came just this past week against the Miami Dolphins. The Panthers won the game 27-24, and Young threw for 198 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick. This also moved the Panthers’ home record to 2-0.
Over his career, Young has simply been far better at home than on the road.
At home, he’s 7-10 and has completed 64.6% of his passes for 3,099 yards, 15 touchdowns, and interceptions.
On the road, he’s just 1-17 with an 18:14 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Cowboys have arguably the worst defense in the league, allowing 284.6 passing yards per game (most in the NFL). They also allow 2.4 passing touchdowns per outing (third).
Over their last three games, the Cowboys have allowed an average of three passing touchdowns per game.
Given the “+” odds, home success, and the Cowboys’ terrible defense, I think Young could have at least two passing touchdowns.
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Going along with Young’s passing touchdowns, I think this is a great spot for McMillan to finally find the end zone.
This season, McMillan leads the Panthers with a 25.3% team target share. This is 11.2% higher than the second-place player, fellow wide receiver Hunter Renfrow.
He’s caught five passes in three of five games and four or more passes in four of five games.
There is one notable issue for McMillan, though, and that’s his red zone target share. When the Panthers reach the red zone, McMillan has a 16.7% target share, which is tied with three other players for second place.
That said, the Cowboys are allowing 188.8 yards and two touchdowns per game to wide receivers. These are both the most in the NFL.
McMillan finally scores.
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The Panthers have had a fairly stingy defense this season, but their weakness has been against tight ends.
This season, they’re allowing 80.2 yards and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game to the position. The yardage allowed is the most in the NFL, while the 0.6 touchdowns are tied for fourth.
Not only that, but Ferguson has a 20.8% team target share in the red zone, which is second on the team. Generally speaking, his team's target share is 24.6%, which is the highest on the team.
He’ll be heavily involved against a defense that struggles against tight ends.
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