Derrick Henry has rushed for 50 yards or fewer in three consecutive games.
Henry has just one touchdown in his last three games after scoring two touchdowns in Week 1.
Henry has four carries of 20 yards or more in four games.
For Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens, the rubber is about to meet the road. On top of being 1-3, there is now uncertainty regarding the health of Lamar Jackson, who exited last week’s loss to Kansas City with a hamstring injury. It looks like Jackson will miss this week’s game against the Texans and could be sidelined for up to three weeks. Cooper Rush will step in as Baltimore’s quarterback, although the pressure will fall on Henry’s shoulders to carry the Ravens offensively.
This season has already been a mixed bag for Henry. He started fast in Week 1 against the Bills, but he’s been held to 50 rushing yards or less in each of his last three games. As a result, his odds of being the NFL Offensive Player of the Year have dropped considerably. It’s also worth questioning whether the Ravens should still be considered favorites to win the AFC North.
With all of that in mind, Henry is a fascinating player from a prop bet perspective in Week 5. While his numbers have been down in recent weeks, the Ravens need him to step up more than ever. We’ve closely examined Baltimore’s matchup with the Texans in Week 5 and come up with three prop bets involving Henry.
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This might be the easiest prop bet involving Henry this week. Ironically, he’s yet to go over 18 carries in a game this year. He also had just eight carries against the Chiefs last week. But with Jackson banged up, the Ravens are going to lean on him heavily, with Henry likely becoming the focal point of the Baltimore offense. In other words, Henry will get as many touches as possible.
It should also help that the Ravens are playing the Texans, who have been abysmal offensively this season. The Texans have been held to 20 points or less in three of their four games. Unlike recent games against the Lions and Chiefs, the Ravens are unlikely to fall behind by multiple scores and abandon the run. That will allow them to leave Henry on the field for 20-plus carries.
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Assuming Henry gets at least 20 carries, it’s highly likely that he’ll go over 85.5 rushing yards. He’d only have to average 4.3 yards per carry to hit that mark with 20 carries. Despite his erratic use in recent weeks, Henry is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the season. He also tends to get stronger late in games, so getting anywhere close to 20 carries should be enough to get over 85.5 yards.
While Houston’s defense has been solid despite the 1-3 start to the season, the Texans aren’t exactly brilliant against the run. In Week 2, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 136 yards on 27 carries. Even if they’ve bounced back in recent weeks against lesser teams, Henry and the Baltimore rushing attack should have similar success.
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Even though Henry is known as a powerful, between-the-tackles back, taking the over on his longest rush is usually a good bet. He’s so difficult to tackle that Henry will inevitably shake off some arm tackles and hit the open field for a big run. Henry has four carries of 20 or more yards on the season, so it’s a good bet that he’ll have at least one against Houston.
In fairness, the Texans have only allowed one running play of 20 yards or more this season. But their strengths up front are in rushing the passer, not stuffing the run. Plus, Henry isn’t an ordinary running back. Stopping him is different from stopping other backs, which is why we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and back him to succeed in all three prop bets.
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Carries: 49
Yards: 284
Yards per carry: 5.8
Touchdowns: 3
Receptions: 4
Receiving Yards: 36
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