Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction: Dolphins Hope to End Lopsided Rivalry Trend

• The Bills won 13 of the last 14 matchups against their AFC East rival

• The Dolphins are the worst team against the spread in the NFL

• The Bills are 2-0 ATS and just covered by 14.5 points

The Miami Dolphins will pay a visit to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3, and I’ve made my best betting picks for the matchup.

The Dolphins are coming off a home loss to the New England Patriots during which Tua Tagovailoa made two backbreaking mistakes on the team’s final drives. The Bills, much to the opposite, shellacked the Jets on Sunday, 30-10, despite Josh Allen not throwing a touchdown.

Favorites are 18-14 (56.2 percent) against the spread to start the year, but can the Bills continue the positive trend? Here are my best Dolphins vs. Bills picks for Week 3 TNF.

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds

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Dolphins vs. Bills My Pick

• My Pick: Dolphins +12.0 (-115) at bet365 sportsbook

I’ll take the Dolphins to cover the spread here. It’s impossible to be in love with anything they’ve shown up to this point, but Tagovailoa – as easy as he is to pick on – is much better than he was in the first two games of the season. Miami has speed that can travel and cause problems in upstate New York this early in the season.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction

Miami Dolphins Preview

The Dolphins are supposed to be a team built on speed that can take an intricate offense to a variety of venues and present problems to even the best defenses in football. It’s tough for them to do that when their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has as many touchdowns as he does interceptions (three), and is 31st in QBR with a deplorable mark of 22.3.

Miami is 25th in yards allowed per play and dead last in EPA allowed per play. They’ve been mediocre (said encouragingly) against the run, but they’ve had no answers for opposing offenses looking to attack them through the air.

There seems to be an inevitability factor hanging over the ‘Fins; Mike McDaniel feels like he’s just waiting to lose his job, and the core group of players is waiting to be split up and moved to new homes.

All that said, Miami can play better than it has thus far. Tua was around the 10th-best quarterback when he was on the field last year, De’Von Achane is an unorthodox running back who is difficult to prepare for, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can win outside the numbers.

This will be a test of the Dolphins’ mental resolve more than anything else.

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Buffalo Bills Preview

The Bills scored an improbable victory over the Baltimore Ravens, 41-40, to begin their season at home. They followed that up with a 20-point trouncing of the Jets in Week 2 as they head into a short week.

Of concern is the face of Josh Allen – not because of the inevitable gasp it caused from Hailee Steinfeld, but because the reigning MVP’s nose was bloodied during a clash last week. As a result, he is expected to wear a visor for further protection in this game.

Buffalo’s defense had no answers for the Ravens through the air and on the ground in Week 1. However, that’s the Ravens, who might just have the best offense in the NFL, and one of the best in league history.

That said, Justin Fields’ 1.1 QBR (you read that correctly) can certainly be bested by Tagovailoa, who’s gotten multiple looks at the Bills defense for years. Buffalo will likely land somewhere in the middle of the two performances, although it’s unclear what that might look like.

The Bills have basically split the double-digit line in their wins against the Dolphins over the last couple of seasons. They’re clearly the superior team, and although they are at home, this is a short week against a division rival.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Injuries

Miami Dolphins

• Storm Duck (CB) - Questionable (ankle)

• Jaylen Wright (RB) - Questionable (knee)

• Malik Washington (WR) - Questionable (thumb)

• Darren Waller (TE) - Questionable (hip)

• Jaylen Waddle (WR) - Questionable (shoulder)

• Chop Robinson (LB) - Questionable 

• Ifeatu MElifonwu (S) - Questionable (calf)

Buffalo Bills

• Matt Milano (LB) - Questionable (pectoral)

• Shaq Thompson (LB) - Questionable

• Taron Johnson (CB) - Questionable

• Ed Oliver (DT) - Questionable (ankle)

• Cam Lewis (CB) - Questionable

Dolphins vs. Bills: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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How to Watch Dolphins vs. Bills

• When: Thursday, Sept. 18 at 8:15 p.m. ET

• Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

• How to Watch: Prime Video

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