Drake Maye has 15 touchdown passes in eight games, including eight in his last three games.
Maye has thrown 30 passes or fewer in all of New England’s wins this season.
The Falcons allow the second-fewest yards per pass in the NFL.
There’s no doubt that Drake Maye has been one of the breakout stars of the 2025 NFL season. He’s one of just five quarterbacks to surpass 2,000 passing yards in his first eight games. More importantly, he’s led the New England Patriots to five straight wins, making them relevant again after four losing seasons in the last five years. That makes Maye a player to watch closely in Week 9 when he and the Patriots try to make six in a row against the Atlanta Falcons.
Believe it or not, Maye has become a dark horse to win NFL MVP award in just his second season. His performance is also a big reason why Mike Vrbal is among the NFL Coach of the Year favorites in his first season leading the Patriots. Perhaps more importantly, according to AFC East odds, Maye and the Patriots are serious contenders to win the division, even if the Bills remain the betting favorite.
To put it another way, Maye is someone we’ll be watching closely in Week 9, which is why we decided to target him for three prop bets.
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| Drake Maye Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | -115 | CLAIM HERE |
| Drake Maye Longest Pass Completion Under 34.5 Yards | -110 | CLAIM HERE |
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If you want to play it safe, you can get Drake Maye over 1.5 touchdown passes at -120. But one week after the Falcons allowed Tua Tagovailoa (of all people) to throw four touchdown passes, there is undoubtedly value in fading the Atlanta defense and betting on Maye to reach three touchdown passes for plus odds.
In fairness, the Falcons allowed just seven touchdown passes in their first six games before last week. But they also haven’t played a lot of quality quarterbacks this year. Maye would certainly fit the description of a quality quarterback, especially after throwing three touchdown passes in two of his last three games. He’s come on strong lately, while the Atlanta secondary is a little banged up, which is why 2+ touchdown passes is a safe bet, but 3+ touchdown passes is worth a shot.
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Despite playing at a high level during New England’s five-game winning streak, Maye hasn’t needed to make a lot of passes. While he needed to make 30 pass attempts to beat the Bills, he hasn’t thrown more than 26 passes in the other games during New England’s current winning streak.
The only games Maye has thrown more than 30 passes this season were the games the Patriots lost. With New England being a 5.5-point home favorite over the Falcons, the Pats have a good chance of winning. They also have a steady, if unremarkable, running game to keep pressure off their young quarterback. But the bottom line is, if you think the Patriots will win, betting on Maye to make 30 or fewer pass attempts is a safe bet.
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Admittedly, we are going against the grain with this pick. Maye has completed a pass of 39 yards or more in three straight games. Outside of New England’s two losses, he’s had a completion of at least 32 yards in every game. That points to him connecting on another completion of at least 35 yards in this game.
However, this pick is all about the Atlanta defense. Despite some flaws, the Falcons haven’t allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game. They allow just 6.2 yards per play in the passing game, which ranks second in the league. Also, the Atlanta defense has conceded the fewest pass plays of 20 yards or more and just three pass plays of 40 yards or more. All of these stats point to Maye having a hard time creating big plays in this game.
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Completions: 170
Attempts: 226
Yards: 2,026
Completion Percentage: 75.2
Yards per Pass: 9.0
Touchdowns: 15
Interceptions: 3
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