Predictions and Odds for Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins (NFL Week 11)
The 6-3 Houston Texans:
Fresh off their Week 10 bye, the 6-3 Houston Texans are on a 6-win streak, including a Week 9 win over the Denver Broncos by a last-second missed field goal by Broncos’ placekicker Brandon McManus, final score 19-17.
Houston plans to keep adding wins while on the road in Maryland against an equally confident and successful Redskins franchise.
A healthy Watson makes the difference
Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson is having a much better season than he did in 2017, mainly because he’s still on the field in Week 11 this season whereas last year he tore his ACL right before Week 9.
Watson, who’s ranked 15th in total passing yards with 2,389 this season, having thrown 185-for-285 for 17 touchdowns (T-11th most) and just 7 interceptions, will face a Redskins team that’s only 25th against the pass, a weakness he’s sure to exploit.
The 6-3 Washington Redskins:
The 6-3 Washington Redskins are coming off a sweet 16-3 road win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have won four out of their last five games.
The Redskins are 0-1 in games outside of their conference so far this season after losing to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 by a score of 9-21.
Old man Smith earning his money
Their fancy new older quarterback, 34-year-old 3xPro-Bowler Alex Smith, last year’s NFL passer rating leader, seems to be earning his $94 million contract extension by throwing 193-for-301 for 2,045 yards, ten touchdowns and just three interceptions.
Last week while spanking the Bucs, Smith threw for 178 yards and a touchdown while only running the ball twice for 8 yards.
What’s at stake:
These two teams have met a total of 4 times, with Houston and Washington each winning 2 of those games apiece. The Texans have won the last two in a row; one played away, the other at home.
If the Texans win this matchup, they’ll move to 7-3 and stay at least a game ahead of the 5-4 Tennessee Titans in the AFC South.
But if the Redskins come out on top, they’ll be 7-3 and continue to dominate the normally more competitive NFC East by at least two games.
Questions to answer…
Who’s favored to win this Week 11 Texans-Redskins matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to compare the Texans and the Redskins and attempt to answer those questions and more.
The 2018 Texans offense rested and road ready
The Texans are something that few other NFL teams can say in Week 11 – they’re well-rested after their bye week and injury free for right now, with nobody on the roster listed as out or questionable.
The Texans have won three straight road games, so traveling to Maryland for a win isn’t unexpected for them, though two of their three losses did happen away from home.
Texan targets well-oiled
Watson is on a roll – he’s had two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 14 games, his receivers Keke Coutee and All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins combining for 1,090 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Watson does like to target his tight ends on occasion, like he did against the Broncos, with Ryan Griffin catching a ball for 13 yards and Jordan Thomas catching one for seven yards and a touchdown, his third touchdown in the last two games.
On the ground, Lamar Miller (525 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Alfred Blue (297 yards, 1 touchdown) and company combine for an average of 120.3 rushing yards per game, 11th most in the NFL.
The 2018 Redskins offense led by the ‘elderly’
Besides their quarterback Smith, the other star Redskin quickly approaching his mid-thirties is veteran Adrian Peterson, a 33-year-old 7xPro Bowl, 4xFirst-team Pro Bowl former league MVP running back who’s tied for fifth most rushing yards in the NFL this season with 672.
Tight end Jordan Reed is much younger at 28, and he’s caught 37 balls for 391 yards and touchdown so far in 2018.
‘Kid’ receivers Josh Doctson and Maurice Harris, both 25-years-old, have stepped up with the ankle injury to Jamison Crowder, who’s the same age and listed as questionable against the Texans.
Washington offense all banged up
The following Redskins are questionable for Week 11:
- Offensive tackle Trent Williams (thumb)
- Running back Chris Thompson (ribs)
- Wide Receiver Jamison Crowder (ankle)
Offensive tackle Geron Christian (knee) has been placed on injured reserve.
Texans Defense ranks 9th in the league
Again, there are no injuries affecting the Texans, including their defense, which has allowed opponents an average of 20.4 points and 336.3 yards per game.
The Texans defense has a total of 23 sacks (T-18th most) and 7 interceptions (T-17th).
Texan Defensive Players to watch:
Inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney, a fourth-year player who leads the team in tackles with 65, and who has 1.5 sacks and 4 quarterback hits.
Defensive end J. J. Watt, who has 9.0 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 32 tackles (11 for loss) and 16 quarterback hits.
Redskins Defense is 17th overall
Washington is much stronger against the rush than they are the pass this season, their run defense ranked fifth in the league after allowing opponents to only gain 90.9 yards on the ground per game.
The Redskins are ranked 25th against the pass after allowing opponents to gain 270.1 passing yards per game, though the ‘Skins have intercepted 9 balls (T-11th) and have sacked opponents 25 times (T-12th).
Redskins Defensive Players to watch:
Inside linebacker Mason Foster is tied for fifth most combined tackles in the league with 79, while inside linebacker Zach Brown has 59 combined tackles (T-38th).
Defensive end Matthew Ioannidis has 7.5 total sacks (T-12th most in the NFL) and outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan has 5.5 sacks (T-21st).
Free safety D.J. Swearinger has intercepted 4 passes, tied for second most in the NFL.
Washington defensive injuries:
Cornerbacks Joshua Holsey (foot) and Quinton Dunbar (shin) are both listed as questionable for Week 11.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Houston’s punter, Trevor Daniel, an undrafted free agent this offseason, has punted 43 times for a net average of 39.8 yards per punt, ranked 15th in the NFL.
Washington’s punter, Tress Way, in his 5th season, all with the Redskins, has punted 43 times for a net average of 41.1 yards per punt, ranked 9th in the NFL.
Houston’s placekicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, in his third season with the Texans, has gone 19-for-22, his longest was a 54-yarder. He has missed one extra point attempt (21/22).
Washington’s placekicker, Dustin Hopkins, in his 5th NFL season (his fourth with the Redskins), is 17-for-19, his longest has been a 56-yarder. He hasn’t missed any extra point attempts (17/17).
Houston’s punt returner, wide receiver DeAndre Carter, was picked up on waivers from Philadelphia in November. He’s replacing running back Tyler Ervin, who was ranked 29th in the league in return average after returning 21 punts for 175 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 8.3 yards per return, his longest for 27 yards.
Washington’s punt returner, Greg Stroman, is ranked 49th in the league in return average. He’s returned 5 punts for 28 yards and no touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per return, his longest for 10 yards.
Texans–Redskins prediction and odds
The oddsmakers have the Texans favored over the Redskins by 3 with an over/under of 42.5.
CBSSports.com has two final score predictions:
Pete Prisco goes with the under and has it Redskins 19, Texans 16
John Breech takes the under and predicts it Texans 22, Redskins 19