Jordan Love’s odds to win the NFL MVP award continues to grow
Love threw for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s contest against Washington
The Cleveland Browns' defensive line leads the league in Pass Rush PFF Grade
After throwing for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week’s win against Washington, Jordan Love has seen his odds to win the NFL MVP continue to grow. Unfortunately for the Green Bay Packers quarterback, negative regression looms large as he may find himself under constant pressure against a Cleveland Browns defense who excels at collapsing the pocket.
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Since the start of the regular season, Jordan Love has quickly built a case for being one of the top contenders for the MVP award as the Green Bay Packers quarterback has averaged 240 yards per game. While his yardage total ranks in the top half of the board for the most in the league, it is worth noting Love has been league average at best with his accuracy as he is 16th in Completion Percentage.
In Sunday’s matchup against Cleveland, negative regression looms large over Love as he will find himself scrambling away from a Browns defensive line who ranks top-10 in Pass Rush Win Rate while leading the league in PFF Grade. With the pocket collapsing at a high rate, this will drastically reduce the quality of Love’s throws which will lead to an uptick in incompletions.
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Not only will the Browns' pressure reduce the quality of Love’s throws, but it will also give the Packers' receivers less time in the open field to break away from their coverage. With a defender in close proximity, the Packers will struggle to generate an explosive play as their pass catchers will have to deal with contact as soon as they haul in a reception.
The Browns' scheme also lessens the width of Love’s passing lanes as they anchor their linebackers at one of the heavier rates in the league. With bodies spread across the middle, the Browns can cover more ground on the back end while their front four forces Love to throw into their heavy coverage. Barring a broken play, expect Love to be held under the total on his longest completion prop.
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For a quarterback who is capable of playing a role on the ground, Love has been rather conservative in his efforts of extending plays with his legs as he averaged just 5.5 rushing yards per game last season. When Love does take off and run, he has been efficient as he ranks near the top of the board in Rushing EPA per play.
With the Browns' linebackers anchored in coverage, this opens up higher-quality running lanes for Love to exploit in scrambling situations. For some more exposure, escalator bet Love’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.
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While an uptick in pressure normally results in an increase in Havoc, Love has excelled at taking care of the ball as he has yet to generate a Turnover Worthy Play in his first two games of the season. Factor in the potential decrease in Love’s number of pass attempts and the chances of him throwing an interception also declines.
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Passing Yards: 480
Passing Touchdowns: 4
Interceptions: 0
Completion Percentage: 66.0%
Average Yards per Attempt: 9.1
Average Yards per Game: 240
Quarterback Rating: 120.0
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